So far, my favored model has won the snow wars with the recent rash of limited snow events. Here for this third round tonight, my favored model is.....(drum roll)...calling for a skunk yet again. But not so fast...
First, what is 'out there'. ACA is in yet another Winter Weather Advisory for elevations above 3500' for 2" and up to 5" of snow by 11am Thursday (locally higher amounts right on the TN border, which is not us). The advisory starts at 8pm, with the better periods of snow chances getting here around midnight.
What's different this time:
1) The upstream moisture field is far more impressive, already near the NC border and extending back to the Great Lakes.
2) There is crashing cold incoming through the day Thursday. What sticks stays tomorrow, except for valley locations that will get some sun in the afternoon. Even Waynesville proper is slated for at least 1/2" of snow per the NWS models from this round, where they weren't forecast for any the prior two hits.
3) Travel has a good chance to be greatly impacted tomorrow...assuming it snows, of course.
Why wouldn't we get the snow?
1) If the upstream moisture flow curls east and misses us just to the north near, say, around Sam's Gap where I-26 crosses into TN. That's what has been happening.
2) If we do get the moisture but the very low dew points (and relative humidity) evaporates most of it before it reaches the ground.
Normally, I'd side with the advisory, and would really like to. It's just that my GFS model has been sitting in near-skunk mode for the third time in a row...hard to not bet on that pony again.
So, that's it...all that palavering for what is a pretty minor snow event. Welcome to the South, y'all. I'll be up early in the morning and will update accordingly...should I need to.
Bob
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