There is no doubt we have been totally spoiled by our mild temperatures lately. While there is a big shot of cold air that will be in place late Sunday night through Monday, the ground should be warm enough to limit accumulations on road surfaces. Be that as it may, it doesn't take much to make for dangerously slick roads on our mountain.
This will be another Northwest flow event, that looks to drop 2 to 4" along the Tennessee border near us. As you go up towards Roan Mountain and northeast of they are, they may see as much as 6 to possibly 8" of snow. The odd thing is, my favored models don't show much of that snow getting down to central Haywood County, with ACA in the dusting to 1" category.
As I am writing this about 6:30 p.m Saturday., there are no winter weather advisories, watches, or warnings for Western North Carolina… yet. The switch over to snow showers should take place approximate to midnight Sunday night and last through a good bit of Monday. Temperatures will definitely be much colder, in the 30s, and if the snow overrides the warm ground, the roads may well be slick early Monday morning. I will post an update sometime Sunday when I see more specific information.
Bob
Saturday, November 30, 2019
Tuesday, November 12, 2019
SNOW UPDATE
The temperature has dropped to 28ﾟat the end of Staymon Road, and the ground and my driveway are all white. Because there was some rain early on, the belly of this snow may well be going to ice very quickly, so be extremely careful if you must travel the mountain.
The snow machine has come to an end for round one, but the reason the advisory goes until 7:00 in the morning Wednesday is that the National Weather Service is anticipating the northwest flow showers to continue off and on. At the moment, they seem to be relegated to the Tennessee border, but not here...for now.
Feel free to add pertinent road information in the comments below.
The snow machine has come to an end for round one, but the reason the advisory goes until 7:00 in the morning Wednesday is that the National Weather Service is anticipating the northwest flow showers to continue off and on. At the moment, they seem to be relegated to the Tennessee border, but not here...for now.
Feel free to add pertinent road information in the comments below.
Monday, November 11, 2019
HELLO, FIRST SHOT OF WINTER!
Ah, 'tis the season, eh? While all the long-term forecasts point to a mild-ish winter, there will always be shots of arctic air and snows, regardless. Incoming tonight is our first solid chance of bitter cold and snow, albeit light amounts overall.
We've got a fair number of new residents in Apple Creek, so others forgive me for my repetitive remarks. Give me 2-4 inches of snow and I'll drive up and down Apple Creek in 4WD without too much trouble. Give me 0.25" or 1/2", and I might not make it. With the thin layer, wheels will compact the snow to ice quickly, and nobody can negotiate icy roads. We have some deceivingly steep sections here and there, so always TAKE YOUR TIME AND GO SLOWLY. 2WD, even if FWD, has a poor success rating on our roads when 'white'.
From our mild temps even as I type at 430pm, they will crash well before sunrise to near/below freezing....and perfectly timed with the incoming precipitation with the cold front. IF it starts as liquid, it will quickly transition to snow, and temperatures will more than likey hold steady at daybreak and then fall through the afternoon and night down into the teens for Wednesday morning. Roads will deteriorate tomorrow morning as there will be no opportunity for melting until some Wednesday afternoon. Here's the scoop...
Per the National Weather Service (NWS), ACA is under a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (click for link) from 4am Tuesday through 7am Wednesday. The Advisory is for 1-2" in the valleys and 2-4" above 3500'. ACA's 3500' mark is the "blue roof house", and it is a crazy but accurate demarcation point in many of our snows. This will be a "northwest flow event" that will be highly dependent on the moisture flow lines per accumulations. If it's more WNW, amounts cut back for us; if it's true NW or NNW, we can pick up more than expected. I'll be updating in the morning as I should be back on the mountain by 3am, crossing fingers.
I'm siding with my GFS model which is more towards 1" in the valley and 2" to a borderline 3" if not here then very close to ACA. Regardless, temps crash, some snow falls and sticks on roads, and we hunker down for a VERY cold Tuesday. Haywood County Schools will have an interesting call to make...a 10am early dismissal may be too late for roads in the northern part of the county, so I'm anticipating either a 'delay' to be followed by cancelation, or an outright cancelation by daybreak.
More than likely, I'll put up a new post in the morning once I see what's upon us.
Bob
We've got a fair number of new residents in Apple Creek, so others forgive me for my repetitive remarks. Give me 2-4 inches of snow and I'll drive up and down Apple Creek in 4WD without too much trouble. Give me 0.25" or 1/2", and I might not make it. With the thin layer, wheels will compact the snow to ice quickly, and nobody can negotiate icy roads. We have some deceivingly steep sections here and there, so always TAKE YOUR TIME AND GO SLOWLY. 2WD, even if FWD, has a poor success rating on our roads when 'white'.
From our mild temps even as I type at 430pm, they will crash well before sunrise to near/below freezing....and perfectly timed with the incoming precipitation with the cold front. IF it starts as liquid, it will quickly transition to snow, and temperatures will more than likey hold steady at daybreak and then fall through the afternoon and night down into the teens for Wednesday morning. Roads will deteriorate tomorrow morning as there will be no opportunity for melting until some Wednesday afternoon. Here's the scoop...
Per the National Weather Service (NWS), ACA is under a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (click for link) from 4am Tuesday through 7am Wednesday. The Advisory is for 1-2" in the valleys and 2-4" above 3500'. ACA's 3500' mark is the "blue roof house", and it is a crazy but accurate demarcation point in many of our snows. This will be a "northwest flow event" that will be highly dependent on the moisture flow lines per accumulations. If it's more WNW, amounts cut back for us; if it's true NW or NNW, we can pick up more than expected. I'll be updating in the morning as I should be back on the mountain by 3am, crossing fingers.
I'm siding with my GFS model which is more towards 1" in the valley and 2" to a borderline 3" if not here then very close to ACA. Regardless, temps crash, some snow falls and sticks on roads, and we hunker down for a VERY cold Tuesday. Haywood County Schools will have an interesting call to make...a 10am early dismissal may be too late for roads in the northern part of the county, so I'm anticipating either a 'delay' to be followed by cancelation, or an outright cancelation by daybreak.
More than likely, I'll put up a new post in the morning once I see what's upon us.
Bob
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