HELLO, FIRST SHOT OF WINTER!

Ah, 'tis the season, eh?  While all the long-term forecasts point to a mild-ish winter, there will always be shots of arctic air and snows, regardless.  Incoming tonight is our first solid chance of bitter cold and snow, albeit light amounts overall.

We've got a fair number of new residents in Apple Creek, so others forgive me for my repetitive remarks.  Give me 2-4 inches of snow and I'll drive up and down Apple Creek in 4WD without too much trouble.  Give me 0.25" or 1/2", and I might not make it.  With the thin layer, wheels will compact the snow to ice quickly, and nobody can negotiate icy roads. We have some deceivingly steep sections here and there, so always TAKE YOUR TIME AND GO SLOWLY.  2WD, even if FWD, has a poor success rating on our roads when 'white'.

From our mild temps even as I type at 430pm, they will crash well before sunrise to near/below freezing....and perfectly timed with the incoming precipitation with the cold front.  IF it starts as liquid, it will quickly transition to snow, and temperatures will more than likey hold steady at daybreak and then fall through the afternoon and night down into the teens for Wednesday morning.  Roads will deteriorate tomorrow morning as there will be no opportunity for melting until some Wednesday afternoon.  Here's the scoop...

Per the National Weather Service (NWS), ACA is under a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (click for link) from 4am Tuesday through 7am Wednesday. The Advisory is for 1-2" in the valleys and 2-4" above 3500'. ACA's 3500' mark is the "blue roof house", and it is a crazy but accurate demarcation point in many of our snows.  This will be a "northwest flow event" that will be highly dependent on the moisture flow lines per accumulations.  If it's more WNW, amounts cut back for us; if it's true NW or NNW, we can pick up more than expected.  I'll be updating in the morning as I should be back on the mountain by 3am, crossing fingers.

I'm siding with my GFS model which is more towards 1" in the valley and 2" to a borderline 3" if not here then very close to ACA.  Regardless, temps crash, some snow falls and sticks on roads, and we hunker down for a VERY cold Tuesday.  Haywood County Schools will have an interesting call to make...a 10am early dismissal may be too late for roads in the northern part of the county, so I'm anticipating either a 'delay' to be followed by cancelation, or an outright cancelation by daybreak.

More than likely, I'll put up a new post in the morning once I see what's upon us.

Bob