LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT (?)

The going forecast is one where models do not agree, the reason reason being temperatures may be too warm for the NAM to verify (inches of snow). The GFS, Euro, et al. are in the 0-1" range through Saturday. 

There will be chances for showers to turn to snow showers any time the temperature is cold enough, which is usually going to be overnight and into the early morning hours, Friday into Saturday. Even then, it's mainly for 4000' and above.

I'll post any updates and tweaks as I deem necessary.  Just a good ol' heads up, just in case.


Bob

MORNING ROAD UPDATE

Good morning! While Haywood County schools and some others are closed or on delays, this is due to coatings of ice/freezing fog in this region on lots of surfaces including roads.

I'm happy to report that from Staymon Rd  on down Apple Creek has no issues whatsoever this morning (no info available above Staymon).  However, you will find some icy patches on your out and about travels around the region. Just a heads up.


Bob

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (yawn...)

As I write at 5am, temperatures are simply too warm for the anticipated snowfall this morning.  Rain is moving in from the west/ southwest and will continue to do so off and  on through today. Temperatures may get cold enough tonight to switch back over to some light snow shower activity. At this time I anticipate no problems for ACA.

 That said, we are under a Winter weather advisory until 7 o'clock Tuesday morning for elevations above 3500'. Per the advisory, that would amount to 2-3" of snow for the upper half of our mountain.  I dont see this happening.

 I'll be posting any changes should I see any later today.


Bob

SNOW POTENTIAL THIS WEEK

First we have in our face the potential for a dusting to 1" on our mountain, overnight tonight, which the higher amounts are higher up.

We got way more snow than the prior system that put down 2.5" here at the end of Staymon Rd . NWS says any totals are below advisory criteria, so we'll see. My models say 0-1", though the NAM paints us 1-2".

I'll update early in the AM. Really early.

NW flow events are wildcards.  They can be skunks as easily as big 'uns, so all bets are mellowed. I sense my waking up at 3am may find some issues, so I'll post any observations I have in the comments.

Another shot maybe early Wednesday, and another shot over the weekend, which is a wild shot at the moment. Stay tuned...


Bob

THANK YOU, HOA!

From when I drove up Tuesday morning at 530am, on snow covered roads, fishtailing at the expected curves....to getting out mid-afternoon...Apple Creek Road was gotten in surprisingly good shape. I'm pretty sure it was a combination of a vigilant board combined with a new salter/power that made for a doggone quick improvements on a bone-chilling day. Thanks to all involved for your efforts!

Nice thing, too, is the residual salt on the road. Thursday night into Friday morning may be more wintry weather (mostly freezing rain?), and those dregs should prove useful. Light snow accumulations are possible late Saturday into Sunday.  More on that later.


Bob

WE'VE GOT A SERIOUS MESS HERE...

I just rolled up to the house at 5:30 this morning and it's a miracle I even got up to the house at all. The roads are totally snow covered down around Lake Junaluska, Russ Avenue and out towards Maggie Valley and certainly Mauney Cove Road as well. And it only started that way once I exited off the four-lane to head down to Bojangles.

I've got 2" here at the house at the end of Staymon and the snow is still coming down. The roads are very slippery, and until the snow ends and it warms up some, there is little that can be done except to wait it out. It's 11ﾟ right now, so it's not going anywhere anytime soon.

 That it really snowed at all was surprise enough to forecasters, as even my models didn't show it except 0 to 1" up in the Smokies.  That the snow has continued unabated and amounted to this much as even more of a head scratcher. This particular event has been snow showers moving in from due North, which is not the usual direction. We will always get accumulating snow if it comes directly from the North like this but it is almost impossible to see it on the radar.

Too, I'm flummoxed with the lack of any advisory or viable Hazardous Weather Outlook from GSP. The 230a HWO for western NC said "no hazardous weather expected today". Not pleased....

I wouldn't advise travel unless you must do so, and hopefully you have 4WD and good tires. It really is a mess out there, even down low.


Bob

TODAY'S DUSTING...YEAH, RIGHT

Looks like we're getting a fruitcake snow..
You know, the gift that keeps on giving. I'll be heading home about 5am, and at least at the end of Staymon the "dusting" is now a fuzzy inch or so.

Which is the top end of wording from the NWS, an inch. The snow clouds are well under the radar beam, so there is nothing to really "see".

I'll post a road update once I get home early tomorrow. Stay tuned...


Bob

ODDS AND ENDS

From our unusual long run of mild weather, temperatures will now start to lower and bottom out early next week. Yet for all of our rainy days of late, this cold snap will not have bona fide chances for snow accumulation associated with it.  Friday night into Saturday morning will see some periods of rain-snow, then snow, then back to rain, but accumulations should be nil overall for ACA.  There will be another limited period of rain-snow late Saturday night into early Sunday morning.

For those that travel the upper part of Apple Creek Acres, you've noticed the giant mirror is missing from what we call the 'mirrored curve'.  In the last wind event, the post it was on had rotted enough to give way and break.  The mirror itself is fine, but the mounting hardware has greatly rusted, and is currently being bathed in Liquid Wrench to see if it can be unfrozen; if it can, then it will be mounted on a new treated post soon.  If it can't be salvaged, I suppose Plan B would be next...but I have no idea right now what Plan B would be.  :-)

All that to say please continue to use increased caution and GO SLOWLY through that tight, blind spot, and be as courteous as possible if you meet traffic.  

Also, ACAHOA dues were due January 15, FYI. Everyone should have received those notices by now.

Bob

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY: UPDATE

What WON'T be happening...

First, here are the technicalities: Apple Creek Acres is under a Winter Weather Advisory (click link for details) from noon today until 7:00 a.m. Sunday. Temperatures won't be cold enough for snow here until late in the afternoon, early evening, and the winds will also be picking up as the temperatures crash.  Power outages are certainly within the realm of possibility if the winds get as high as the forecasts show.

 In so far is amounts, this is where 2 paths diverge in the woods, just like we've seen with every other system so far this Winter. The national weather service is calling for one to possibly 2" and some mountain valleys, with anywhere from 2 to 4" along the higher ridge tops along and near the Tennessee border. The graphic for Waynesville simply shows less than 1" even on the high end amount so I'd imagine even where we are that it'll be another one of those heavy dustings to light coatings down low. I'll stick with up to 1.5" above the blue roof house, although if the winds stay feisty then it will be hard to accumulate that much. And, add to that…

My two favored models have now had two consecutive runs that put us into our 0 - 1" category, and they're no longer showing the heavier snow along the TN border close to us. That speaks to a very limited moisture field tonight. Highs will be well above freezing Sunday...cold, yes, but not long-lasting.

I will be driving in after 1am and will post road conditions in the comments section below. Once again, this has all the makings of a minor winter event, but even 0.25" of snow on the road can be dangerously slippery.  In some respects, I'd rather drive up in 1-2" of snow...time will tell!


Bob

LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY EVENING

Dawn 12-26-19

Our chance for snow Saturday evening is very much like what we experienced the other 2 times so far this winter: maybe up to 1/2 of an inch below 3500' and 1" to possibly 2" high up above the blue roof house.

 From our very mild temperatures even to start the day tomorrow, temperatures will be crashing as the afternoon progresses.  At the same time, moisture will be rotating in from the northwest, creating a chance for 2 to 3" of snow close to the Tennessee border by Sunday morning.

 My favored models have had us steadily in 1-2" with 3" very close by. However, the national weather service is a little bit stingier than that, and given how our past events have panned out, I would tend to think this one will be much like those.

 At this time, there are no winter weather advisories posted. If I see changes worth passing on, I'll repost by noon(ish) Saturday.


Bob