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| Dawn overlooking Lake J community |
Admit it, we've gotten spoiled by our mild-ish temperatures of late, so it stands to reason that party will need to shut down for now. Let me cut to the chase:
First, welcome to the new faces on the mountain and reading this entry. We have the cold incoming as I type, with gusty winds, now 43 here at the end of Staymon. Lows will be dropping into the 20s starting tonight and stay with us through most of next week. Heck, just might have some teens come Sunday morning. Highs should stay above freezing, though maybe not by a whole lot, but above freezing being the operative idea.
Precipitation with this incoming system is limited, flat-out limited, and comes to us in two 'hits', so to speak. The first is overnight tonight into Friday morning, and a dusting to a heavy dusting should be about it. The ground/roads are 'warm' and I expect zero road/travel issues in Apple Creek.
The second and bigger push of limited moisture comes in Friday night, tailing off by or before daybreak Saturday. That's where we might pick up accumulations. It's a northwest flow event, so for now this is what Saturday morning could hold for us: 1/4" - 1/2" lower half of ACA, and 3/4" to 1.5" upper half (above the blue roof on Apple Creek Road).
Do I expect road troubles Saturday morning? Not at this time. By then there will be some white surfaces, and we all know that even a very light cover can be icy and slippery, depending on your vehicle and tires. For winters on the mountain, good tires are the best investment you can make. If you're reading this and you only have 2WD, even if it's front-wheel drive, you will have a good chance of realizing it will be a matter of time, sooner as opposed to later, that you won't be able to traverse Apple Creek Acres safely. AWD is better and 4WD is better yet.
The model runs have been getting a bit bolder (we're still talking limited amounts) with the EURO and the GFS in good agreement, with 6-10" up on the highest peaks in the Smokies (5500' and higher). Typical of these events here in ACA, the accumulating snows are best above 3500' (blue roof), but some snow bursts Friday night could well make it down into the valleys for a while.
So, a small event overall, but the winter prognosis overall, which I've not talked about, is for a decidedly snowier winter here in ACA than we've had in a good many years. The "Super El-Nino" is a real thing and alive and well, setting us up with the potential for well above normal precipitation this winter. But I'll detail more on that in another post.
I'll update here if needed tomorrow evening about this time (~5pm), and if you have not done so, bookmark our ACA Facebook page as that has real-time observations and discussions, where this blog page is for a more in-depth look. Click HERE for the FB link.
Bob
