SNOW: 730a Saturday UPDATE

Wouldn't you know that overnight the snow showers would do what they do best: DUMP.  2" new snow overnight at the house and the driveway is white, so I can only imagine ACA has some snow covered roads, at the very least above Staymon.  One of my dogs went down the driveway and I could see black where they'd trodden, so that's a good sign for easier cleanup.  Temp is 28, and forecast high is only in the mid 30s, upper 30s down low.

Our forecast is controlled by the office in Greer, SC, and all I could scare up was a 10p snow report wherein most Haywood County reports were about nearly melted snow from Friday morning's snow showers.  Other high elevations had 4-5" of snow:  Beech Mountain, Newfound Gap (Smokies), and Roan Mountain.


Below is a frame from my radar showing a steady band of snow showers moving down the I-40 corridor in TN and up to Madison County.  Hard for radars to get the true scope of precipitation here because of the mountainous terrain and the low-level nature of these clouds to begin with.  I can only assume that for a few more hours any additional accumulation would be very light.


As I see information come in I'll update this page.  If you have a report at your house or road, make a comment to this post.  It will be a while before I get out.  Click on pics below to enlarge slightly if you wish.

748am radar grab

730a on my deck

SNOW UPDATE: Thursday AM

A WINTER STORM WATCH has already been hoisted for Haywood County and elevations above 3500 feet, but that makes sense because we are one of the 'border counties' with TN.  That's where the high elevations are that especially catch accumulating snows when we get an upslope flow from the NW in TN.  While ACA is a bit removed from the border, we go up to 3900 feet, so a very real potential exists for some accumulation at least on the upper half of Apple Creek Road.

Changes I see this AM:  

1.  Friday morning lows are coming in some 4-5 degrees colder, which is now below freezing.  That complicates any of the snow falling after 1-2 am Friday.

2.  One digital model I like moves us from "chance" snow to "likely" snow from 3a through 6p Friday.  While Friday will be bitterly cold for us, highs should still go a little above freezing.  Friday afternoon seems to be a good window for stronger snow showers, which, while intermittent, can dump snow quickly.  Even the 'chance' category snow showers will continue through sunrise Saturday.  If my high holds around 32 or 33, it will make matters worse (I'm at 3775 feet).  Apple Creek Road could easily become a slippery problem as Friday progresses.

3.  Models started showing the bull's eye in the Smokies a couple of days ago, but certainly there some areas that will get 6" of snow, with isolated heavier amounts. That's a lot of snow close to us.  Both DO show accumulating snow, for at least the upper half of Apple Creek Acres...the NAM shows an inch, and the GFS has for 24 hours put us in the 2-3" category.  Hard to ignore that.

Bottom line:  Friday will be a very cold day that will resemble January.  Chances for accumulating snow on Apple Creek Road will certainly increase above the Blue Roof house, and problems may increase some Friday afternoon.  Temps are forecast to stay below freezing from 7pm Friday, and dip well into the 20s for Saturday morning.  Any snow showers will stick, flat out, and while there is no discussion yet, I'm confident the snow level will fall to 2500 feet overnight Friday into Saturday morning.  Head's up!

Just because it's slated to be a warmer and drier winter doesn't mean we won't have episodes like this.  All the more reason to keep a check on your speeds and use utmost caution Friday and Saturday. 

I'll be updating as I see any changes.  Below are last night's graphical model runs for the two models I'm following, with the "X" marking ACA.  Click on images to enlarge a little bit. 

NOTE: To save space in the long run, as I update an on-going forecast, I will delete the earlier forecasts to reduce confusion.  The "C" on this label basically denotes the third update.

GFS Wednesday night run

NAM Wednesday night run

Apple Creek Acres News and Fact Sheet: 20010-11

New ACAHA Board Up and Running

John Stoeckel, President   Contact John at 828-456-8651 or email him at jrstoeckel@yahoo.com

Empty,  Vice President

Sharon Gallimore, Treasurer

Dolores Foutch, Secretary

Irene Jackson, board member

Bob Child, board member and ACA Blog manager.  Contact Bob at weatherflute@yahoo or the blog site at http://applecreekacres.blogspot.com/

Chris Martin, board member

Road Repair Accomplished!

            Three sections of Apple Creek Road were repaired this year. This new surface will provide better traction during inclement weather.  Broken road edges were repaired including our favorite pothole at the entrance.  

Long Standing Board Member Resigns

Keith Patton contributed an enormous amount of time and energy to this community.  He managed road repairs, cleared down trees and cut brush along the road.  Keith has always "walked the second mile" for this community and his absence from the board will be missed.

Road Plan in the Works

            The board is currently working with road maintenance experts to develop an on-going plan for the ACA Road System.  This plan can provide a "checklist" annual maintenance needs for the main road, side roads, ditches, culverts, and overhangs.  This will help determine priorities, monitor critical road areas, project cost, save money, therefore control fees and protect property values.

New ACA Blog Site Up and Running

Our new blog site at http://applecreekacres.blogspot.com/ was set up by Bob Child.  Bob is a 20-year TV weatherman and invites suggestions and opinions at weatherflute@yahoo.  The blog site will show ACA news, weather and later include our Community Watch program, road conditions and calling tree map. You can click on the 'archive' tab on the right to access all past posts...plenty of info there. Haywood County emergency information and contacts will also be listed shortly. 

Community Watch and Weather Road Conditions

            People are volunteering up and down Apple Creek road to observe and report road conditions in front of their house.  Last winter our "calling tree" was very active and now we will have more observers willing to receive calls from those driving down the mountain, and those driving in from the outside.  Our road is tricky with different freeze zones changing hourly as the sun moves along the ridge.  Neighbors can help.

Interesting Facts from the Data Base

            Number full time households                                        36

            Number seasonal households                                      18

            Number lots only (no associated households)              19

            Possible residential cars using road                             53
            at least once a day in winter                                           

            Winter households above "blue-roof-freeze zone)        25

            Winter households below the blue-roof-freeze zone)    14

Winter Outlook 2010-11

If there is one question every is asking is "What is the forecast for this winter?"  After last winter's very snowy and icy experience, none are anxious for a repeat. Last winter was 'below average' temps and 'above average' precipitation.

In short, temps look to run close to "equal chances" for temps above or below average, which basically translates into 'average'; precipitation is forecast to be average or slightly below average.  That bodes well, but keep in mind those are broad-brush strokes.  I've put sequential, overlapping 90-day outlook maps from the National Weather Service below.

With that said, you can still have wickedly cold snaps, but they shouldn't stay entrenched for long.  If a storm system comes in with warmer air, it can hold more water, and you can always get a perfectly timed cold front that meets up with the more watery air mass and get a big snow; however, the numbers are clearly pointing at a less snowy and potentially warmer winter than last year.

Only because it is upon us  am I leading with a map I saved early Saturday that was pointing to what the National Weather Service is calling for: potentially a half-foot of rain here at Apple Creek Sunday through Monday.  While we need rain, too much of a good thing has its own drawbacks, eh?  If you have to hit the roads, watch out for certain ponding and potential hydroplaning....

POTENTIAL RAIN TOTALS THROUGH MONDAY 9-27

NOV-JAN TEMPS

DEC-FEB TEMPS

FEB-APR TEMPS

  

MAR-MAY TEMPS

NOV-JAN PRECIP

DEC-FEB PRECIP

JAN-MAR PRECIP

FEB-APR PRECIP

MAR-MAY PRECIP

Apple Creek elevations

So the first day of fall has come in as if it were summer.  Dontcha just know there will be good cold snap soon enough, reminding us that winter is not too far away.  Because I will be keeping an extremely and updated eye on our winter weather situations ahead, I wanted to know where the key elevations were within Apple Creek Acres.  With winter storms I can pick apart the timing of 'freezing levels', critical for road conditions.  Thought you'd like to know what I dug up....

(NOTE: not that these are exciting pictures, but for any of these blog photos, you can click on photos to enlarge them)

2885'    Entrance elevation

 

3000'    Just below Chris Martin's house

3300'    Just above the "Blue Roof" house

 

3500'    Just above the last hairpin curve 

(below mirror)

3630'     Entrance to Staymon Road

3900'     the gate at the end of Apple Creek Road

(by the way, when the signs say 'No Turn-Around',

they ain't jokin'!!!)  Also the same elevation

as the end of Tanneyhill Lane

Couldn't 'bear' not to show this creative driveway entrance!

If you want to explore a really neat website, check out this link:

HAYWOOD GIS

It's a fairly intuitive database in which  you can find out amazing amounts of information   The maps allow you to turn on-off layers like topo lines, satellite imagery, roads, sewers, and so much more...a powerful database, it is

All the news I have for now.  Enjoy the warmth while we have it!

Bob Child.

COMMUNITY WATCH ALERT!

The following is a community watch alert from Chris Martin, whom many of you already know.  He has been in contact with the Haywood County Sheriff's department concerning the following recent and real threat within our community:

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To All ACA Road Watch volunteers and community members:

A member of the Cabe family on Dawin Circle road is being stalked.

The Haywood County Sheriffs Department is involved therefore you may see additional patrols along the road.

The Cabe family is considering this situation "serious".

If  you observe a BLACK HEAVY DUTY QUAD CAB (4 full doors) pick-up truck with a Tennessee Walking Horse plate on the FRONT (NC tag in rear?). Please call the Sheriff's Department at 828-452-6666  immediately.   

This message will also appear on  the AppleCreekAcres.blogspot.com, our new community news blog. 

For additional information call Chris Martin, 828-456-2999 828-400-9754, Community Watch Coordinator

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Thanks in advance for everyone's help in this matter.  Our wonderful 'home' is only as safe as we all help it to be, and your caring, vigilant eyes help tremendously.

"Where did summer go?"

(Click pics to enlarge)

 

 A sudden change in air masses occurred from the cold front that kept Hurricane Earl just off the East coast late last week...the air has been clear and cool and of great clarity for views...a harbinger that fall is not too far away.  It has been a hot summer, here, even at the higher elevations.  Proof in the pudding, this from the National Weather Service dated Wed. Sept. 1, 2010:

 THIS WAS THE WARMEST SUMMER EVER RECORDED AT ASHEVILLE...

WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 75.4 DEGREES. THE PREVIOUS 

RECORD WAS 75.1 DEGREES IN 1952. FOR THE MONTHS OF JUNE...

JULY AND AUGUST...THERE HAVE BEEN 19 DAYS AT ASHEVILLE 

WITH HIGHS OF 90 DEGREES OR HIGHER. THE HOTTEST DAY WAS 

94 DEGREES ON JULY 8.

That makes this almost chilly changeover a welcome relief.  Remind me of that when the heating bills come in this winter...

There is so much to see and do 'round these parts, and I thought from time to time I might suggest some trips for when you have company come up or are looking for a scenic outing.  We went to the Cataloochee ranger station in the SE Smokies yesterday and got to watch the reintroduced Elk herd feeding in an expansive field.  Lazy gravel roads lead you into some peaceful and beautiful areas, that will be bursting with color before long.  The bugling bull reminded me of that, as well...

Back in early August we held our Apple Creek Homeowner's Association Annual Meeting, this time in a new venue at the First Baptist Church in downtown Waynesville.  The economy had forced shortened hours at the public library, our 'normal' go-to location for meetings; many thanks to the church for use of their facility pro bono!  We had a quorum, with just the bare minimum in attendance in body or by proxy.


Among the issues and reports that were brought up, certainly one was road maintenance.  We had a problematic winter season in 2009-2010 with just under a seasonal total of 5 feet of snow (and sleet and freezing rain!) at my house on Staymon.  Having the monster 18" snow out of the gate December 18th, along with our regular plow guy suddenly having equipment failure, we had a very inconvenient start.  Overall, I think we did about as well as could be expected, and we hope to be even better prepared this winter.  I will be putting timely updated podcasts/forecasts via this blog, specific to Apple Creek Acres and our elevation concerns.  Chris Martin is heading up a committee that will not only address road conditions, but provide for effective and timely communications when problems loom.


Another issue I share here that came up were the road repairs made late this summer, with a tar and gravel mix that is less expensive than asphalting.  Some complained about the loose gravel and the sliding on the lower curves, especially, but I am here to say that if anyone had sliding issues, they were driving too fast for Apple Creek Road to begin with.  Speeding is an issue for some, as is cutting inside blind curves; please be responsible for keeping your speed (and lane) in check.  I never once had an issue or problem with the gravel, except for the noise it made underneath my 20-year old wagon!


A third issue I'll bring up last is the importance of maintaining right-of-ways within Apple Creek, ensuring that objects, plants, structures aren't placed too close to the road or infringing on what is community property as opposed to personal property.  We'll all be hearing more about these and other issues later, to be sure.  In the meantime, thanks for all y'all's efforts to take pride in this wonderful slice of heaven we live in.


Bob Child