WEATHER CHANGES THIS MORNING

A patchwork of cautions for us this morning:
Winter Storm Warning above 3500' (Moskos blue roof house) through 6am Wednesday.  3-6", highest above 5K feet (not in ACA)
Winter Weather Advisory below 3500' through 6am. 1-2" in the valleys.
Wind Chill Advisory through noon Wednesday.  Overnight chills -5 to -20 with winds gusting to 40mph.

We are starting warm this morning, 39 at 5:45am, but temps drop hard this afternoon and night.  Depending on how much snow falls and melts first, we might get an icy belly on this one.  The pool of incoming moisture from the NW is rather sizable, and while it still takes just that perfect angle down the I-40 corridor for us to make the warning's higher amounts, I still see ACA topping out at 1-2", maybe 3" up high with the right direction. With that said, outside of our recent 3" snow. we've gotten off easy with very minor totals.  I don't see us dodging this one, but I see us in the lower range of the warning at this time.

We'll give zero a run for the money for lows Wednesday morning and again on Friday morning.  Always a good idea to put a winter 'kit' in your car, like heavier boots, socks, coat, hats, gloves in case you get stuck and have to hoof it up, especially with the anticipated winds later today.  Chris Martin has offered his driveway as a place to safely park down low for those that need it. 

There doesn't appear to be one clear cut time period for the snow, but most of the afternoon will have snow showers and maybe a heavier burst later in the afternoon.  I've got jury duty this morning, so not sure when I'll hoof it home, but look for updates here on road conditions just in case.  Keep in mind temps will be too cold for road salt to work, and there is still some salt residue on Apple Creek Road.

Bob

A.M. UPDATE

For what snow fell early this AM, at least in the upper portion of ACA, my salt residue on my driveway has kept it all black and unfrozen.  Yesterday, Keith walked a good bit of the road and talked with the contractor....unless we got a good 2" of snow, then there is nothing that can be effectively done as Apple Creek Road has good salt residue as well.  Obviously, the 2" didn't happen, and I imagine AC Road is as it has been.  There are those icy areas that will still be icy, especially that sizeable frozen flow on the inside of the mirror curve.  Should be no new issues on the roads this morning.

Another quick hitting skiff of upslope snow will develop in the dark hours of Tuesday morning, but I expect it to be on par with most of what we've been getting.  The more unpleasant story is the cold returning after a 'mild' Monday.

Bob

OVERNIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL

ACA is in a Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight through 10am Sunday, with the better 'likely' period of snow to fall in the predawn hours.  Again, fast moving snow showers moving in from the NW will accumulate mostly NW of here along the TN border, but if the incoming direction is just right, we could see an inch of snow here.  The GFS model has been odd model out when it disagrees with the NAM, the two I watch closely.  GFS shows a dusting to 1", and the NAM is going 1"-2".  My best idea is what I stated earlier, the 1-1.5" range.  

There are still plenty of icy patches on the shaded sections of Apple Creek Road, and the double hairpins are still slippery...any snow we do get should be driveable with the right vehicle and technique, but if we do get that inch anyone in a 2WD vehicle had better travel with significant care early on, if at all.

Temps do warm some through Monday, but heavens is the cold going to lock in again next week starting Tuesday, with lows in the lower teens and possibly single digits a couple of nights next week.  A couple of reinforcing shots of arctic air will keep our heatpumps, furnaces, and fireplaces earning their keep for a good many days.

Bob

WEATHER UPDATE

More cold incoming as temps fall fast late today, with a windy night ahead. ACA is in a Wind Chill Advisory from 12am through 10am Saturday, for wind chills that can range as low as minus 15 degrees.  Lows may be single digits here tomorrow morning, though constant winds might keep us a tad 'warmer'...suffice it to say it will be biting, regardless.

We have two incoming 'hits' of snow showers, but they don't look like they'll amount to much.  These are all fast-moving upslope events from the NW, one this evening/night and another one Saturday evening/night.  A dusting to 1.5" covers from late today through Sunday morning, and the Saturday night hit may have a bit more moisture with it.  Expected winds should blow any snow all over the place and minimize any accumulations.

After a brief warm up Monday, yet another cold blast hits immediately to add to our heating bills.  Feel the excitement...  :-)

Bob

AM ROAD UPDATE

Apple Creek Road was plowed/treated yesterday around 5pm.  Had additional very light flurries after that to dust things over.  Low this morning has been 13 at my house.  Looking for a sunny day, with highs back up into the 20s, so some more melting is in order.

Made a 7am trash run, mainly to test the roads myself from the end of Staymon, and I was not the first one down.  Lower Apple Creek Road below the Moskos blue roof home has plenty of asphalt showing with only minor white patches.  The higher you go, the more snow covered the road is, but I have to say I had zero slippage issues in 4WD, up or down.  I will add here that if two cars are passing each other in a narrow area, the car heading downhill should be the one to stop if someone has to.  Heading uphill, if you stop, you run a risk of not being able to get going, depending on the spot. Just my two cents.

Lots of cars on the side of the road, but kudos to all who did as the cars are well off and out of the way.  I can only guess a 2WD car would have trouble on the road still on the upper portion.

As always is the case, upper Mauney Cove Road leaves a LOT to be desired, but it improves below Hall Top.

Maybe another inch of snow late tonight as another blast of colder air moves in.  More on that later today if I see issues.

Bob

ROAD CONDITIONS: CAUTION!

Noon time 1-15-14  end of Staymon Road

UPDATE 1:30pm:  PLEASE STAY OFF APPLE CREEK ROADS AT THIS TIME.  Road treatment/salting/plowing will take place ROUGHLY at 5pm, but understand it takes a while for chemicals to do their thing.  The snow has picked back up nicely, so treating at this time would be folly.  Hoping that the late afternoon treatment will provide the best bang for the buck.  Reports say several cars are stranded and on the side of the road, making travel all the more dangerous.  PLEASE refrain from travel the rest of today if at all possible.
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UPDATE @ 7:05PM - From Keith Patton, President of ACHOA

While the snow was being plowed today, an Apple Creek resident asked the contractor to perform services in excess of those ordered by the ACAHA Board of Directors. This person did not volunteer to pay for these services, which will end up being part of the ACAHA bill. The contractor has been instructed that in the future, any services not specifically requested by the ACAHA Board of Directors are to be paid for by the individual requesting them.

Keith Patton

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I just headed out at 930a with roads already snow covered except for lowest part of AC Road.  28 degrees.  Ran errands for an hour and came back up.  Easily over an inch now on road above Moskos blue roof house, and mostly snow covered lower.  I have an Envoy which has both AWD and 4WD, and 4WD worked better for me as slipping was commonplace.  My vehicle is 2.5 tons with very good tires, and I did crawl on up to Staymon and up to the end.  Could not negotiate my ridiculously steep driveway, so will need to go plow and  treat after posting this.

PHONE CALL: Linda Hughes called just now and just went down in 4WD from Staymon and said going down it's icy and very slippery on the steeper sections, especially around the blue roof house down to the next big bend.

My models went into this event saying 1-2" with the 1am model runs, and we are well on our way to that, maybe more if this keeps up.  Biggest problem I have is that the moisture layer is largely under the radar beams pointing over the mountains, so I can only go by other data and interpolate.  Our advisory is in place to midnight, so I assume snow showers will continue through supper time at least.

Use extreme caution traveling Apple Creek.

Bob

WEDNESDAY SNOW UPDATE

A few things have changed in the forecasts, but my assessment of 'issues' for ACA remain the same from the prior post.  ACA is in a Winter Weather Advisory (not a more substantial warning, at least at this time), and temps should be cold enough to support some snow in the valleys by Wednesday afternoon.

My favored models have danced us in and out between the 1" range to the 2-3" range. but they still basically hug the 1" level, with 2" close by.  You can drive in that stuff with the proper vehicle and driving skill.  The advisory calls for 2-3" for ACA above the Moskos' blue roof house, but at this time I'm doubtful for that much.

This will be a NW flow event, which can be buggers.  With just the exact, precise direction, snow shower bands can lay down 2" in several hours, but I'm not convinced the incoming direction is that favorable. Too, the timing keeps delaying on digital models, with any rain/snow changeover to occur just before daylight instead of after midnight, with the 'likely' snowy period more towards noon instead of 8am...all of that pointing towards a 'less than' event for us.

Who's kidding who....1/2" of snow/ice can cause some serious skidding and traction issues on Apple Creek Road, but this event really does appear to rank along with the past two events.  Not enough to justify plowing, and dropping temps cold enough to drop us below justifying salting.

And we get to do this dance all over again Thursday night into Friday, though that looks even a tad more tame and less 'wet'. Stay tuned for updates....

Bob