WEDNESDAY A.M. UPDATE

With 1" of snow, tops, here on Staymon, and 25 degrees, my concern is for any ice underneath.  I don't need to tell you that yesterday's heavy rains started to cause problems with regional creeks and rivers, especially toward Cruso.  And where you have seeps or springs that were continually pushing out water onto roads, those areas are sheer ice...now covered in snow. 

I have zero idea what Apple Creek Road is like, but we have several spots where there is surely ice underneath.  When I get any information, I'll post it here, but a lot of folks seem to use the Facebook page to do so as it's an easier interface for real-time commentary.  FB link is HERE.

Bob

HANG ON TO YOUR HATS....NO REALLY

 Mr. Toad's Wild Ride is coming to town starting this evening and running through Wednesday morning, to the tune of strong winds and a chance for light wintry precipitation in the predawn hours of Tuesday and Wednesday.  

Sunday aftenoon, and the ultra-light AM snow hung on

First, I was amazed that our expected light, light snow shower early Sunday morning (which at home here on Staymon was only about 0.1") covered absolutely everything, including the driveway.  And it stayed all day thanks to our shaded NE exposure.

A potent storm system will arrive tonight bringing with it a High Wind Warming for those above 3500' and a Wind Advisory below 3500'.  Whether we get the potential gusts approaching hurricane force winds remains to be seen, but what works a bit in our favor is that the winds will be out of the S/SE, which means Laurel Ridge blocks the brunt of it.  You can read the advisories HERE.

Both early Tuesday and Wednesday mornings there is a chance for some precipitation to be wintry in nature, be it snow or a wintry mix.  Winds will help preclude accumulations of any note, but may make for slippery surfaces.  It's very little if it is measurable, just suffice it to say it's a trypical 'heads up' for the next couple of days.  

I'll be staged for power outages and potentially trees down across the road just in case.  So if someone tells you to go fly a kite, get one that has a Kevlar reinforced frame and some rope instead of string...and let me know how that works out for you...   :-)

Bob

WE'RE THE BENCHWARMERS, NOW...

A little snow humor for y'all...

Looks like Haywood County (yellow dot, below) will be sitting this one out, in terms of any substantial wintry mix or light icing late tonight into Saturday morning.  Even the snow component has disappeared for ACA, or if it makes an appearance, it will be short-lived.  Rain ultimately rules, after some sleet and freezing rain.

Current Map of Weather Issues

We DO have a Wind Advisory that will kick in from 12am through 9am Saturday, for our higher elevations.  But all of the purple Advisories and pink Warnings in the above map are for icing concerns.  This is a classic wintry mix that may start as snow, then mix with sleet, freezing rain, and then rain, with ice accrual being the reason for said categories.  The I-40E and I-26E corridors may be problematic starting after midnight but especially early Saturday morning, so travel with caution those directions.

We have a few little burps of snow flurries or showers over the next week, the first chance being the pre-dawn hours Sunday morning.  But there are no travel concerns at any point in time for now.

Bob

SNOW/MIX AHEAD

The weather is still pussy-footing around in the wintry weather department so far this season.  You might see a snow flurry/shower this evening, but it won't amount to anything.  The ground is rock-hard here at my house as I can't stick anything in the ground by hand, so with the next round of precipitation late Friday, it might make for slippery roads for a while.

Snow looks to be a sure thing kicking in Friday evening/night, but temps will be borderline cold enough to support it for more than several hours before it ticks up and we switch to sleet, maybe some freezing rain, before it becomes all rain Saturday morning.

Any accumulation would be hampered by the reduction via sleet and rain, but 1-2" is reasonable to expect.  Originally, the EURO model had us 6-8" for a couple of days, but has since pulled way back, just as it has with every little system so far this season.  

I'll update if needed Friday. Let the milk and bread stay put on the shelves 'til next time...

Bob

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...???

I'm scratching my head over this one...NONE of my modeling shows anything above a dusting to MAYbe 1/2" of snow, and I've been watching these runs for two days.  Here's the 'official' advisory:

A Winter Weather Advisory is in place for Haywood County from 6am Monday through 6am Tuesday for elevations above 3500' (ACA's 'blue roof' house).  Snow to 4" and wind gusts up to 55mph.  The wind we'll get, and be prepared that some trees fall and cause some power outages, should the speeds manifest.

To be honest, I see those snow amounts only within a fairly narrow band of the higher elevations right on the TN border and the Blue Ridge Parkway.  Even the 'expected' NWS-GSP snowfall map for western NC has zero for Waynesville, and only starts accumulating a little within 15 miles of the TN border.  I'm just surprised, that's all...and a lot of people will be expecting inches of snow when it will be a skunk, mostly.  Any snow falling should be whipped around by wind and accumulations limited.

HOWEVER....some seriously cold air will be moving in. to the tune of lows in the teens Tuesday and Wednesday mornings...but temps do moderate by week's end.

Bob

6AM UPDATE

 My driveway is clear and dry as a bone.  While I see some shininess, it must be a very thin glaze that doesn't reach up to the level of the gritty driveway.  My boots never slipped, so I'm assuming most of us should be fine.  I won't be leaving until closer to 7am, and will update only if I see something worth mentioning.  I do have 0.5" snow/ice on my deck and stairs, FYI.

Bob

UPDATE: SNOW AND SLICK ROADS POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY

While snow flurries/showers are falling as I update at 6:50pm, almost all models have pulled snow totals far back for our area (except the HRRR, which I've never mentioned before).  While the NWS mentions 1-3" possible above 3500' elevation, I don't see the amount I got last Wednesday.  The deck is white, and the snow is falling...but there is a difference from last Wednesday....

Temps will be a dropping down into the low to mid 20s. What may be an additional concern is black ice forming.  Any moisture on the roads will be icy.  So just a heads up and word to the wise for the early morning.  I'll be posting any update on conditions around 4-ish as I get ready to head down the mountain.

Bob