AS THE OLD SAYING GOES.....

"Praise the Lord and pass the potatoes!"  The county JUST paved the horrid parts of Mauney Cove Road above Hall Top today.  Will miracles never cease...  There will be paving in Apple Creek's future, and as soon as I hear dates/times I'll post them here.

It's been busy on my end, and seemingly quiet on the mountain.  May was ridiculously rainy, though my 12.43" total for the month paled on comparison to other mountain counties that got 20-25" for the month, at the cost of mud/rock slides and a few tragic deaths.  In that respect we dodged the proverbial bullet.  If you've been away, the mountain is incredibly lush, now full of baby rabbits and mosquito squadrons.  Too, I've posted a few pics at the end of this post that I've taken the past few months from home, for your viewing pleasure.

Our HOA president Tom Batchelor asked me to post information on our annual meeting and need to find interested individuals to serve on the board for next year.  If you are interested (or know someone who might be), please contact Tom by phone or email:

(828) 452-9192  or  tom.batchelor@charter.net

He would like to have names by this Friday (yes, Friday the 13th - no triskaidekaphobia allowed!).  Our annual meeting is slated for Saturday August 18 @ 10am, to be held at the Public Library down around the side (where the big book sale is held).  While official notices will be mailed out shortly, go ahead and make a note in your calendar.

As an aside. you may have noticed on the upper hairpin curve a 'new' graveled road put in.  It was an old (short) road that was already there but blocked by rocks and downed trees; this now gives necessary access to lot owners out that way, should they wish to build or sell.  That's all it is.  :-) 

(click to enlarge)

Sunrise from the end of Staymon

...and another dawn color shot from the end of Staymon

...and another...

White-marked Tussock Moth caterpillar

Early morning thunderstorm clouds rolling in

Luna Moth that settled in by my critter light one night

Turk's Cap Lilies in full bloom on the mountain, now

Heavy A.M. fog one summer morning

We can all use a little inspiration, right?

Bob

SPRING WILDFLOWERS

I ventured out into the woods by my house Sunday to survey the wildflower displays.  What amazed me most were the varieties of flowers out together that normally aren't out together....I'll chalk it up to our "spring that won't stay sprung."  Towards the entrance to Apple Creek, the flowers and tree leaves are much farther along than higher up.  There is lots of wild phlox and yellow hawkweed along the road as you turn in, but I only took pictures of plants here at the end of Staymon Road.  There were a couple I saw but didn't get, so I may add some after our incoming rain moves on.  Happy Monday!  Enjoy. (Click on pictures to enlarge)

Wake Robin Trillium

Squirrel Corn

Cut-leaved Toothwort

Dwarf Larkspur

Nodding Mandarin

developing Solomon's Seal

False Solomon's Seal

Blue Cohosh

Smooth Yellow Violet

Canadian Violet

Spring Beauty

Star Chickweed

Stonecrop

Large Flowering Bellwort

Buckeye  - the first tree to produce leaves

Bob

UPCOMING WEATHER NOTES

3-30-18 from the end of Staymon (click to enlarge)

I will be away from the computer to update the blog until Sunday night, so I wanted to put a few notes 'out there' for what's ahead.

Spring can't seem to stay sprung around these parts for very long this year, and we'll have another strong cold front cross this region on Sunday.  Ahead of and along the front will be pockets of heavy rain and thunderstorms that may reach severe levels for damaging winds.  If they approach moving relatively west to east, the Great Smokies will absorb a good bit of the energy for cells heading for ACA.  If the move SW to NE, we won't be quite as protected...in any event, heads up for possible trees down or a power outage (they never really last long, overall, when they occur).

Then, in the predawn hours Monday, snow is being talked about behind the front.  At this moment, both of my models are going 0-1" for ACA, with 2" along the immediate TN border above 3500'.  I don't see anything for the valleys, so I imagine the NWS may put out another HWO (hazardous weather outlook) for the snow on Sunday, for elevations above 3500'.

When I return Sunday night, I'll update if the above information is significantly different.


Bob

ROAD REPORT: WEDNESDAY 1:30PM UPDATE

Just headed out to Canton and back on errands, and it is a querrolous thing to look at the temps and snow accumulations.  Here at the house, it's 25 degrees on the ground, 30 on the deck, yet melting is continuing for now.  My guestimate is I've gotten 2-3" of snow, but with the significant melting the most any place has now is 1.5".  My driveway is clear, ice-free, and Apple Creek Road is in perfect condition as I type.  No ice, no slush or slick areas (only from Staymon down...can't speak about higher up).

All roads I drove into Waynesville...Mauney Cove, Hall Top, the four lane to Canton, all are in perfect conditions, albeit wet.  I never encountered a temperature above 32, either.  On the 4 lane to Canton, there would be no snow on the bordering land, then within a few hundred yards would be 2-3" piled up, then back to nothing.  Everywhere I went, and even now at home here at the end of Staymon, it's snowing to beat the band, and has been for a few hours.  The incredible melting is testament to the insolation we get from the higher sun angle and ensuing warmth of Tuesday afternoon.

Tonight's lows should be well down into the lower 20s.  The Winter Storm Warning continues to 8am tomorrow, so snow showers will continue.  No guarantee our great conditions will stay that way for the AM commute, however.  Please feel free to post any pertinent reports in the comment section.  I'll update as needed with any new information.


Bob

WINTER STORM WARNING

6:30pm Tuesday update:  I've put a couple of changes in red below; the very recent trends introduces more dry air working in ahead of the snow, which should tail back our amounts.  This storm has two separate lows, and it's the one farther west (near us) that may put the dry slot over the mountains for a while.  Should that come to pass, accumulations will lessen and be delayed some. I'd imagine nobody would mind that...  :-)

There is a chance for a few inches of snow here in ACA...and it's typical for March, which can swing wildly in short order.  With the warmer temps, systems come in with more water content, and the incoming cold is perfectly timed with the moisture this go 'round.

We're under a Winter Storm Warning from 8pm tonight through 8am Thursday, a good 36 hours of potential snowfall. A digital forecast I like has onset after midnight, but the "likely" category has pulled back to "chance". My favored GFS which has sniffed out 'skunks' lately is showing the snow, but at amounts on the low side of the warning for us.  This will be one of those snows that going just one mile may mean the difference in who gets 2" or 4" of snow.  The going amounts in our area are 3-5", though my favored model holds ACA at just 2"-3".

Unlike last Wednesday's system, highs Wednesday will stay very cold, not much above freezing for a lot of us.  Where roads greatly improved last Wednesday afternoon (including Apple Creek Road), I'm not anticipating that this time.  And with lows well down in the 20s for Thursday morning, expect some travel issues on our mountain for a couple of days.

The good news is that it does start warming up Thursday afternoon and through the weekend...but I'm planning on hunkering down a bit here at the end of Staymon Road later this evening.

As an aside, I have a cohort from my days at KEVN FOX 7 in Rapid City, SD who just started the Appalachian Trail at Springer Mountain, GA two days ago. Welcome to the southern Blue Ridge in March, Jamie.  :-)


Bob

HEADS UP: WED. SNOW LIKELY

This is just a heads up for Wednesday.  My favored GFS (which has really been spot-on) is pushing 3" of snow for Wednesday morning.  The NAM is following suit, and per the GFS, it has been seeing 2-3" from the earliest sighting.

Sure, things can change, but just wanted to put the idea out there at this time.  Good news is the temps will start warming Thursday...but at this time Wednesday is one very cold shot of air and moisture, and temporary travel issues in this region.  Stay tuned...    :-/


Bob

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY: PART III

So far, my favored model has won the snow wars with the recent rash of limited snow events.  Here for this third round tonight, my favored model is.....(drum roll)...calling for a skunk yet again.  But not so fast...

First, what is 'out there'.  ACA is in yet another Winter Weather Advisory for elevations above 3500' for 2" and up to 5" of snow by 11am Thursday (locally higher amounts right on the TN border, which is not us).  The advisory starts at 8pm, with the better periods of snow chances getting here around midnight.

What's different this time: 
1)  The upstream moisture field is far more impressive, already near the NC border and extending back to the Great Lakes.
2)  There is crashing cold incoming through the day Thursday.  What sticks stays tomorrow, except for valley locations that will get some sun in the afternoon.  Even Waynesville proper is slated for at least 1/2" of snow per the NWS models from this round, where they weren't forecast for any the prior two hits.
3)  Travel has a good chance to be greatly impacted tomorrow...assuming it snows, of course.

Why wouldn't we get the snow?
1) If the upstream moisture flow curls east and misses us just to the north near, say, around Sam's Gap where I-26 crosses into TN.  That's what has been happening.
2) If we do get the moisture but the very low dew points (and relative humidity) evaporates most of it before it reaches the ground.

Normally, I'd side with the advisory, and would really like to.  It's just that my GFS model has been sitting in near-skunk mode for the third time in a row...hard to not bet on that pony again.

So, that's it...all that palavering for what is a pretty minor snow event.  Welcome to the South, y'all.  I'll be up early in the morning and will update accordingly...should I need to.





Bob