FRIDAY A.M. ROAD UPDATE

Got a detailed phone call recently of Apple Creek Road from the intersection of Staymon down.  First and foremost I was told that 2WD vehicles, front or not, should NOT attempt Apple Creek Road at this time. Refreeze has created areas that are more like a sheet of ice.  Once again, though, we had an inversion this morning where at 3800' the temperature slowly rose to freezing overnight and was 38 degrees at 745 am.  At the bottom it was 19 degrees. Here is the gist of road conditions:

Serious sheet of ice from just above Jan's driveway at the mirror curve down past the little cabin below that just sold.

The hairpins are very icy, especially the upper hairpin.

From the Moskos family's blue roof house down to the curve below the Rich's, there are very icy spots as well.

Yes, it will warm nicely, and the salt will have an easier time kicking in.  However, now that certain portions are solid ice, salt works more slowly on ice sheets as opposed to snow or a rougher surface.  Where the sun hits the road, conditions are significantly better; we just have a lot of shaded areas with our N exposure.

For today, any updates or other reports will be added below as 'comments'.  When you return to this page to see any reports, you may need to refresh the page to see the changes.

Bob

ROAD UPDATE

(NOTE: be sure to check 'comments' section below for any news or updates, and refresh the page to be sure you have the latest info)

Apple Creek Road was plowed around noon today and heavily salted, a process that in our cold temperatures today will take a few hours to start working.  The salting will work most effectively tomorrow afternoon when it warms some more.  Keep in mind that even with salting there will still be some slick spots in shaded areas.

We'll flirt with 0 degrees again tonight, but it starts warming up in the afternoons, and with each passing day it will be less cold at night and warmer in the afternoons.  The next incoming system for the second half of the weekend is all liquid at this time.

Bob

NOON ROAD/WEATHER UPDATE

From Keith Patton, President @ 5:20pm:

After checking all the  weather information at my disposal, it seems very likely that we are going to experience snow off and on at least through midnight tonight. With this being the case, I have talked with the snow removal contractor and told him to come first thing in the morning. He tells me that the other HOA's that he works for have made the same decision. If at all possible, I would advise everyone to stay off the road until he clears it tomorrow.

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Snow wise, it's fine powdery stuff and slippery once compressed.  Temps in the teens.  Inch down low to about 1.5" at the top, with snow continuing to fall, at times sporadically, for hours more yet.  Within 10 miles of ACA totals are forecast to be 2-4", though for the moment we're in the 1-3 and halfway there. 

12:45p update: AWD Subaru Outback just made it all the way to and up Staymon with only minor slippage.  Attempting the road in a 2WD vehicle is asking for trouble at this time.

Just got a full play by play of the drive UP Apple Creek Road from Al Rose.  I-40 was not well treated and mix of snow and road....19-74 was pretty snow covered....Soco Rd. by Lake J was in good shape, but lake snow covered over the ice.  Mauney Cove is snow covered but passable.  Very few tire tracks on Apple Creek Road, and going up is easier than going down.  Al was in 4WD high and had only minor slipping at the hairpin curves, but made it to the top without issue.  Coming down is where speed must be kept minimal so that gravity doesn't take your errant slippage and send you on a journey you don't want to be on.

Keith Patton understands the snow is still falling, and to salt now is folly if plowing is needed later.  But plowing now is folly, so everyone is urged to stay off the road unless necessary and you have the right vehicle for now.  As I write, Apple Creek Road was free from any stranded vehicles on the sides of the road.

Bob

ROAD/WEATHER UPDATE THIS A.M.

Already a good inch at least up high, and just got a first person account of the drive down from Staymon in an AWD Subaru Outback.  Going slow was not a problem on the snow covered road until they neared the Moskos blue roof house down just past David Rich's.  VERY ICY AND DANGEROUS THROUGH THAT AREA, so if someone is near and wants to access our roadside salt boxes and hit the worst spots it would help.  They advise to stay off the road until it's treated, especially in that area.

Radar is unimpressive with returns, as most of this is under the scans of my program. The snow forecast has been upped to the 1-3" range for the area around ACA, but clearly already at the low end, and bitter cold is here to stay a few days.  I'll update this page with information as I get it.

Bob

TRICKLE YOUR WATER TIME AGAIN

I can't be the only one who has had intermittent loss of some plumbing destinations this past week.  :-)  Teens to single digits are moving in for the next three nights before warming some this weekend, so letting a little trickle run sure has helped me keep water in certain areas.  Sunday's temps were a nice gift, as well.

Insofar as snow, ACA has been in the dusting to 1" category, with significant snowfall expected in the eastern third of the Carolinas, all the way to the coast. Lots of excitement out that way, understandably.

Timing:  There's a little bit of snow possible today with the cold front, winds, and falling temperatures.  A better 'chance' will be most of the day Tuesday, wrapping up by midnight.  Obviously, we're simply not expecting much, not that we can't negotiate as we have been.

Bob

APPLE CREEK ROAD VIDEO AND STUFF

Minus 7 degrees on my deck this A.M. and up to a balmy 14 in the shade over snow here at 1:40pm.  I don't see my house getting to 32 degrees for at least 7 days, unfortunately, and we have yet another hard cold hit early next week.  

Too, there could be some nice snow showers midday tomorrow, Saturday...the conservative GFS is a dusting-1" but the more aggressive (and accurate for this last snow) NAM has us 1-2" with 3" close by.  At this time there is no advisory or watch, so I'm guessing the NWS is leaning toward the GFS solution which is small taters for us.  PLENTY of salt residue on Apple Creek Road to help out, as long as temps will cooperate with the salt.

Yesterday I took a new GoPro for a spin on the hood of my car and filmed Apple Creek Road from the bottom to the top, and then sped it up into a 3 minute video.  Due to the size of the file, I've kept the size of the video small, but it's a unique look at our road that many may not be familiar with.  Enjoy!

Bob

DUES AND ROAD UPDATE

From Keith Patton, President:

At the present time there are approximately 50 annual assessments PAST DUE. Plowing and salting the road costs money. If you have not done so yet, please take care of your responsibility as soon as possible.Thank you.

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I just drove into town on errands, and as we say, with the appropriate AWD or 4WD vehicle you can get where you need to go in ACA.  For the fun of it I started up in 2WD but was doing some slipping in the snow covered areas, even with a 5800 pound vehicle.  In AWD I crawled up to the end of Staymon with zero issues.  Apple Creek Road has been plowed and salted; where the sun shines, it's in very good shape, but for the numerous areas that don't get sun, it's snow covered and slippery for 2WD.

The cold will be relentless for at least another week as subsequent cold fronts keep plowing through, erasing what gains we get in the 'off' days.  While there is a very small chance for another dusting Thursday, we at least stay dry through Tuesday of next week.

Bob

A.M. UPDATE

STAYMON ROAD

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From Frank Moskos @ 8:30p:

I went down and picked up my mother-in-law at 8:30pm in my Subaru with chains on it. it is a bit slick, but manageable. I would highly recommend staying in.

From Chris Martin @ 10:30pm:
"A car appears to have gone off road adjacent the Conners.  The car lights are off so I'll check later.  Our drive is almost full, maybe can take one mare car.  Those parked here hope to leave early in the morning if they can."

From Chris Martin @ 8:00am:
The car that stopped last night is still on Apple Creek road but does not appear to be blocking it.  Haven't seen any cars pass
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 From Keith Patton, President:
The road will be plowed and salted this morning. There is a sheet of ice underneath the snow. With the temperatures being as they are, I expect little improvement today,with tomorrow not looking any better. The recommendation from here is to stay off the road until we get some temperatures above 25F.
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At 6:40am I have 2.25" of snow at 2 degrees at the end of Staymon...3" reported by Al Rose up top...and at this time that's all I have to share.  It was a pretty sight, the snow coming down yesterday, but there are travel issues galore in this region.  Come back to this page and refresh it as I will post what information comes my way, or some pics once the sun rises.
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Click HERE for snow reports from the National Weather Service.

Bob

WEATHER CHANGES THIS MORNING

A patchwork of cautions for us this morning:
Winter Storm Warning above 3500' (Moskos blue roof house) through 6am Wednesday.  3-6", highest above 5K feet (not in ACA)
Winter Weather Advisory below 3500' through 6am. 1-2" in the valleys.
Wind Chill Advisory through noon Wednesday.  Overnight chills -5 to -20 with winds gusting to 40mph.

We are starting warm this morning, 39 at 5:45am, but temps drop hard this afternoon and night.  Depending on how much snow falls and melts first, we might get an icy belly on this one.  The pool of incoming moisture from the NW is rather sizable, and while it still takes just that perfect angle down the I-40 corridor for us to make the warning's higher amounts, I still see ACA topping out at 1-2", maybe 3" up high with the right direction. With that said, outside of our recent 3" snow. we've gotten off easy with very minor totals.  I don't see us dodging this one, but I see us in the lower range of the warning at this time.

We'll give zero a run for the money for lows Wednesday morning and again on Friday morning.  Always a good idea to put a winter 'kit' in your car, like heavier boots, socks, coat, hats, gloves in case you get stuck and have to hoof it up, especially with the anticipated winds later today.  Chris Martin has offered his driveway as a place to safely park down low for those that need it. 

There doesn't appear to be one clear cut time period for the snow, but most of the afternoon will have snow showers and maybe a heavier burst later in the afternoon.  I've got jury duty this morning, so not sure when I'll hoof it home, but look for updates here on road conditions just in case.  Keep in mind temps will be too cold for road salt to work, and there is still some salt residue on Apple Creek Road.

Bob

A.M. UPDATE

For what snow fell early this AM, at least in the upper portion of ACA, my salt residue on my driveway has kept it all black and unfrozen.  Yesterday, Keith walked a good bit of the road and talked with the contractor....unless we got a good 2" of snow, then there is nothing that can be effectively done as Apple Creek Road has good salt residue as well.  Obviously, the 2" didn't happen, and I imagine AC Road is as it has been.  There are those icy areas that will still be icy, especially that sizeable frozen flow on the inside of the mirror curve.  Should be no new issues on the roads this morning.

Another quick hitting skiff of upslope snow will develop in the dark hours of Tuesday morning, but I expect it to be on par with most of what we've been getting.  The more unpleasant story is the cold returning after a 'mild' Monday.

Bob

OVERNIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL

ACA is in a Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight through 10am Sunday, with the better 'likely' period of snow to fall in the predawn hours.  Again, fast moving snow showers moving in from the NW will accumulate mostly NW of here along the TN border, but if the incoming direction is just right, we could see an inch of snow here.  The GFS model has been odd model out when it disagrees with the NAM, the two I watch closely.  GFS shows a dusting to 1", and the NAM is going 1"-2".  My best idea is what I stated earlier, the 1-1.5" range.  

There are still plenty of icy patches on the shaded sections of Apple Creek Road, and the double hairpins are still slippery...any snow we do get should be driveable with the right vehicle and technique, but if we do get that inch anyone in a 2WD vehicle had better travel with significant care early on, if at all.

Temps do warm some through Monday, but heavens is the cold going to lock in again next week starting Tuesday, with lows in the lower teens and possibly single digits a couple of nights next week.  A couple of reinforcing shots of arctic air will keep our heatpumps, furnaces, and fireplaces earning their keep for a good many days.

Bob

WEATHER UPDATE

More cold incoming as temps fall fast late today, with a windy night ahead. ACA is in a Wind Chill Advisory from 12am through 10am Saturday, for wind chills that can range as low as minus 15 degrees.  Lows may be single digits here tomorrow morning, though constant winds might keep us a tad 'warmer'...suffice it to say it will be biting, regardless.

We have two incoming 'hits' of snow showers, but they don't look like they'll amount to much.  These are all fast-moving upslope events from the NW, one this evening/night and another one Saturday evening/night.  A dusting to 1.5" covers from late today through Sunday morning, and the Saturday night hit may have a bit more moisture with it.  Expected winds should blow any snow all over the place and minimize any accumulations.

After a brief warm up Monday, yet another cold blast hits immediately to add to our heating bills.  Feel the excitement...  :-)

Bob

AM ROAD UPDATE

Apple Creek Road was plowed/treated yesterday around 5pm.  Had additional very light flurries after that to dust things over.  Low this morning has been 13 at my house.  Looking for a sunny day, with highs back up into the 20s, so some more melting is in order.

Made a 7am trash run, mainly to test the roads myself from the end of Staymon, and I was not the first one down.  Lower Apple Creek Road below the Moskos blue roof home has plenty of asphalt showing with only minor white patches.  The higher you go, the more snow covered the road is, but I have to say I had zero slippage issues in 4WD, up or down.  I will add here that if two cars are passing each other in a narrow area, the car heading downhill should be the one to stop if someone has to.  Heading uphill, if you stop, you run a risk of not being able to get going, depending on the spot. Just my two cents.

Lots of cars on the side of the road, but kudos to all who did as the cars are well off and out of the way.  I can only guess a 2WD car would have trouble on the road still on the upper portion.

As always is the case, upper Mauney Cove Road leaves a LOT to be desired, but it improves below Hall Top.

Maybe another inch of snow late tonight as another blast of colder air moves in.  More on that later today if I see issues.

Bob

ROAD CONDITIONS: CAUTION!

Noon time 1-15-14  end of Staymon Road

UPDATE 1:30pm:  PLEASE STAY OFF APPLE CREEK ROADS AT THIS TIME.  Road treatment/salting/plowing will take place ROUGHLY at 5pm, but understand it takes a while for chemicals to do their thing.  The snow has picked back up nicely, so treating at this time would be folly.  Hoping that the late afternoon treatment will provide the best bang for the buck.  Reports say several cars are stranded and on the side of the road, making travel all the more dangerous.  PLEASE refrain from travel the rest of today if at all possible.
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UPDATE @ 7:05PM - From Keith Patton, President of ACHOA

While the snow was being plowed today, an Apple Creek resident asked the contractor to perform services in excess of those ordered by the ACAHA Board of Directors. This person did not volunteer to pay for these services, which will end up being part of the ACAHA bill. The contractor has been instructed that in the future, any services not specifically requested by the ACAHA Board of Directors are to be paid for by the individual requesting them.

Keith Patton

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I just headed out at 930a with roads already snow covered except for lowest part of AC Road.  28 degrees.  Ran errands for an hour and came back up.  Easily over an inch now on road above Moskos blue roof house, and mostly snow covered lower.  I have an Envoy which has both AWD and 4WD, and 4WD worked better for me as slipping was commonplace.  My vehicle is 2.5 tons with very good tires, and I did crawl on up to Staymon and up to the end.  Could not negotiate my ridiculously steep driveway, so will need to go plow and  treat after posting this.

PHONE CALL: Linda Hughes called just now and just went down in 4WD from Staymon and said going down it's icy and very slippery on the steeper sections, especially around the blue roof house down to the next big bend.

My models went into this event saying 1-2" with the 1am model runs, and we are well on our way to that, maybe more if this keeps up.  Biggest problem I have is that the moisture layer is largely under the radar beams pointing over the mountains, so I can only go by other data and interpolate.  Our advisory is in place to midnight, so I assume snow showers will continue through supper time at least.

Use extreme caution traveling Apple Creek.

Bob

WEDNESDAY SNOW UPDATE

A few things have changed in the forecasts, but my assessment of 'issues' for ACA remain the same from the prior post.  ACA is in a Winter Weather Advisory (not a more substantial warning, at least at this time), and temps should be cold enough to support some snow in the valleys by Wednesday afternoon.

My favored models have danced us in and out between the 1" range to the 2-3" range. but they still basically hug the 1" level, with 2" close by.  You can drive in that stuff with the proper vehicle and driving skill.  The advisory calls for 2-3" for ACA above the Moskos' blue roof house, but at this time I'm doubtful for that much.

This will be a NW flow event, which can be buggers.  With just the exact, precise direction, snow shower bands can lay down 2" in several hours, but I'm not convinced the incoming direction is that favorable. Too, the timing keeps delaying on digital models, with any rain/snow changeover to occur just before daylight instead of after midnight, with the 'likely' snowy period more towards noon instead of 8am...all of that pointing towards a 'less than' event for us.

Who's kidding who....1/2" of snow/ice can cause some serious skidding and traction issues on Apple Creek Road, but this event really does appear to rank along with the past two events.  Not enough to justify plowing, and dropping temps cold enough to drop us below justifying salting.

And we get to do this dance all over again Thursday night into Friday, though that looks even a tad more tame and less 'wet'. Stay tuned for updates....

Bob

THIS WEEK'S WEATHER

Dawn this morning, 1-13-14

Colder and unsettled weather is incoming this week.  While the forecasts mention rain-snow mixes tonight and Tuesday, and then snow after midnight Tuesday with uplsope snow showers all day Wednesday, accumulations and travel issues appear to be negligible in Apple Creek.  Both models I follow have pulled back to a dusting to 1" for the event, so I don't foresee any problems here...no worse than the last two events. Alas, it's early on and things could change, so I"ll update with any changes sometime Tuesday.  The cold temps will be nowhere near the extremes we saw last week, thankfully.

Bob

QUICK WEATHER UPDATE

This is mainly for those residents reading from afar, not in Apple Creek, just to update you on a very unusual weather event.  At the end of Staymon Road I know it reached -9 degrees this morning, a temperature that probably hasn't occurred here in a few decades.  Luckily, the snow the day before was once again minimal, and while there are some snow/ice areas on our roads, they apparently are no issue to AWD or 4WD vehicles driving under control.  The worst result of all this on the mountains has been anything from frozen well heads to broken water pipes. Thankfully, warmer temps are coming in in 24 hours.

Bob

CONDITIONS, UPDATES

(6:45am update) At 5am it was 29 on Staymon with a good dusting of snow. Radars are now showing snow bands coming right down the I-40 corridor which will provide some more snow for ACA potentially.  The temps will crash as the day wears on, but for those that have to get out and travel this is a do-able situation. I have some residents that will be reporting what they experienced on our roads later, so check back and refresh the page to pick up those reports.

Bob

MORE SNOW, BITTER COLD

Yet another Winter Storm Warning for ACA, this time from midnight tonight through 6pm Monday.  Like the system we just had, the most affected areas will be closer to the TN border, and on the upslope side (east TN will get a good bit).  

Amounts: the warning is for 1-3" of snow with isolated 5" on the peaks and ridgetops; however, my two models have ACA in just the 1" range the past two runs, though 24 hours ago they had us in a 2-3" range.  I expect to see the same type of situation for our roads that we just had.

Timing: transition to snow will be around or soon after midnight, with the 5a to 7a window showing possibly steadier snow before going to snow showers through the day.  Should be a done deal by early Monday night. (5p update shows the possibly steadier snow from 6a to 8a, but overall I see no other changes to the going forecast here).

Winds: winds will become increasingly gusty up to 45mph Monday, tapering off overnight.

Temps:  temps will be falling Monday, with teens by the afternoon and single digits by supper time.  Wind chill values will easily be in the -15 to -35 degree range at night, and Maggie Valley's forecast low is -9 degrees Tuesday morning.  This polar blast will be shattering records in many states, including here.  We probably won't see 32 degrees until Wednesday afternoon.

Keith sent the note below to pass along to ACA residents.  Whatever falls Monday will be a repeat situation for us (unless it were heavy enough snow to plow) with even colder temperatures. Even with the untreated roads I personally had no issues in AWD going down or up.
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(From Keith Patton, President)

The question has been raised as to why the Board ACAHA took no action on the road from our last snow.

1. There was less than 1/2 inch of snow on the road. Plowing would have done no good.

2. Road salt does not work below 25 degrees. My thermometer topped out at 17.

Those of us who choose to live here on the North side of the mountain year around, have to understand that there will be Winter days when we will not be able to travel. Yesterday morning was one of those times. Any money that the Board of ACAHA would have spent attempting to improve yesterdays situation would have been wasted.

Thanks,

Keith

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Bob

TRAVEL/SNOW INFO

1-3-13 7:45am (click to enlarge)

The wind howled much of the night, but by golly those two models I like were spot on keeping our ACA totals on the low side.  I have about 1/2" on the deck, and a balmy low of 5 degrees. I'll be posting any information on roads/conditions/salting/etc. on this page, so please check back and remember to refresh the page when you do check it later (not all computers are set up to auto-refresh page hits).

11:10am...here is a LINK to snow reports made to the NWS

2:30pm...just ran into town and back.  Apple Creek Road is snow covered in the shade, as expected.  Use a lot of caution going down and keep it slow...several tracks of tell-tale slip-n-slides.

WEATHER UPDATE

You can read the prior post from yesterday for the basics of our incoming weather, poised to mess up our ACA roads as early as this evening.  This is just an update of tidbits from the latest data runs, and adjustments by the National Weather Service (NWS):

Above 3500', the warning is now for 4-6" of snow.  Below 3500', the advisory has been upped on the high side for 1-3" of snow.  My two favored outputs have been agreeing all along (not the usual) and have ACA on the low side of totals, but have increased to 2" with 3" very close.  Winds will make it difficult to ascertain true totals, making it a bit of a moot point - travel should be greatly hampered at the very least starting this evening.

Timing:  switchover to snow with crashing cold temps and winds is the late afternoon to around supper time.  I would urge anyone out on the roads to be back home as soon after dark as possible this evening, if not earlier...and while we have a good number with jobs that need to travel, I'm expecting some real problems on ACA roads Friday morning.

Winds should be strong and gusty for many hours this evening and overnight...power outages become a possibility, and with the bitterness of the cold coming in, if we did lose power and it stays off long enough, there could be issues of pipes freezing.  I imagine most of us are always prepared for this type of situation, so just throwing it out there.  :-)

After a bitter Friday, and a short-lived warm-up of sorts, there will be a chance for freezing rain in ACA before sunrise Sunday.  Should switch to all rain later in the morning, but a 'heads up' for now.  And then Sunday night into Monday will be more snow showers, but the moisture supply looks very limited and probably not an issue.  More on that later this weekend.

Bob

HAPPY NEW YEAR and MORE...

First, Happy New Year to all y'all in the ACA family!  While there is a Winter Storm Warning to share with you, I wanted to pass along the official numbers from the National Weather Service for what was the wettest year on record (since March of 1869!!!) at the region's official NWS gauge at the Asheville airport:

75.22"  2013
45.57"  annual average
29.65" above normal (!)

And now back to our yet young winter, with some of the coldest air of the season inbound Thursday night.  4pm update: ACA is now in a Winter Storm Warning above 3500' (blue roof house) and a Winter Weather Advisory below 3500'.  These are in effect from 4pm Thursday through 7am Friday. Going forecast is for 3-5" in the warning areas, and 1-2" in the advisory areas.  My two favored models continue to put ACA only in the 1" category with 2" close by to the north, but the NWS continues to use wording mentioning possibly heavy snow, so best to prepare.  The Smokies, Max Patch, and points north, etc., do stand to get a nice tally.

Even tonight there may be passing hits of wintry precipitation, with everything from sleet to freezing rain to a little snow...with the changeover to all snow by late Thursday afternoon when the cold comes crashing in.  But not just cold, mind you, but lots of gusty winds in the 25-35mph range which will make the temps all that more stinging. 

Any snow that does fall and accumulate should be tailing off well before sunrise Friday, with best accumulating potential from supper Thursday through midnight.  It's just Wednesday morning as I type, so will update either later tonight or first thing Thursday morning with any changes in the forecast as some of us have to get off the mountain and get to work...or make alternate plans.  :-)

Bob