WRAPPING UP 2015

*(updated holiday rain total)

Last day of 2015 and it turned out to be pretty nice, especially seeing some sunshine after all our rain this holiday.  Starting December 23 through New Years Eve, I've measured 6.98"*of rain here at the end of Staymon.  After our bout of steady rain Wednesday morning, I took a time-lapse movie looking north, which you can watch by clicking the link below:

Time lapse after morning rain

Temperatures will be getting back to normal now, and the polar jet stream looks to be making a bigger shift our way by January 13-15.  That will mean even colder air, and as the time nears I'll be curious as to any precipitation systems that might visit at the same time. Saturday Jan. 16 just might be our first snow (?!?). Until then, we'll enjoy our trouble-free travels as it relates to weather.

Happy New Year to all y'all!


Bob

"THAT'S PUTTING IT MILDLY..."

Season's Greetings all y'all, whichever you partake in!  Haven't posted in some time because, well, there has been nothing newsworthy to post about.  No travel-trouble weather, no board news sent my way, zip, nada, zilch. While we'll get very cold for a couple of days starting today, Friday, we warm back up next week for Christmas proper with a good bit of rain and foggy, cloudy days.

The polar jet stream remains banked well to our north in the eastern U.S., in large part thanks to the strong El Nino in place.  Models suggest a polar blast to set in mid January or so for the east, but we can be thankful for so-far lower heating bills, zero HOA expenditures for salting/plowing and lack of travel woes, just at the expense of it not feeling like the holidays.  We know we'll pay the piper before long, but I'm lovin' the benefits we've had so far.

With my new work schedule, I'm not firing my camera as much these days, but below are a couple from the past couple of months from home. (click to enlarge).  Here's wishing everyone a safe and wonderful holiday!

End of Staymon Road looking NE

Downy Woodpecker male enjoying an unsalted peanut

Bob

"STUFF"....

THU afternoon 10/29/15, from end of Staymon

First, a big thank you to our 'good Samaritans' that took it upon themselves to blow the leaves off the road last weekend....we've had so many leaves come down, and such wet weather that made for ultra slick conditions, so it has helped in traction and also widening the road so we can see how far we can take our tires over to the side. Kudos!!!

The polar jet stream is being oh so kind for now, and possibly for the whole month.  Any wintry blasts are basically staying west and northwest, well away from us.  58 degrees this morning, in early November, is crazy...but the way things are going right now.

Feel free to go read my second to last blog post about my most recent bear issue.  It's a small world, really.  "What goes around comes around".   From out of nowhere came conversations to me from Cruso and Canton way...about a 247 pound bear killed in Apple Creek recently.  All I'm going to say is I know full well who did it and when, and why, but what's done is done, even if illegally.  Premeditated, so I was told.  That bear is gone for good, and I'm not okay with that, regardless of any issues I had myself. The gunshot heard was the real deal. That video I posted of the bear is from its last few hours on terra firma....

UPDATE:  When I posted this last evening, little did I anticipate yet another bear, but one started to walk onto the deck at 1am.  I didn't get a good look at it as the barking had it shrink quickly into the shadows...all that to wonder if there were two all along or if this is a passerby?  Dunno.  To end on a positive note, thanks to those that work to improve life here on the mountain, board and otherwise.  Winter isn't far away, and we all know how much fun wintry road issues can be...my winter discussion will be posted in several days as I've been busy of late.  Stay tuned!


Bob

ACA Drone Footage

Sharon and Adam Baron wanted to share some beautiful drone footage that in part includes ACA in all of its fall splendor - Check it out HERE!

Bob

My New Best Friend?...

 11:30pm 10-24-15

Happy Fall, y'all.  Seasons are changing, though not by temperature standards.  In the past couple of weeks, there have been a lot of inversions with 6am temps in the low 50s at the end of Staymon but mid 30's in the valleys.  55 as I type, in fact. Nice color here and there, and leaves falling left and right...and myriad visits by my new best friend.

The past year I've identified three different bears that have paid me visits overnight, sometimes several times a night.  Everyone asks me if I've give them names, but I just refer to them much like Goldilocks did: Papa bear, Mama bear, and Baby (more like Yearling) Bear. Haven't seen the massive Papa Bear in about 9 months, and about 3 months since I've seen sizeable Mama Bear. Above is the youngest and smallest of my bears, and just since last Sunday has come to (and sometimes on) my deck eight times, but only at night.  He knows from experience I keep bird seed in a rather large, locked storage shed, now booby-trapped with noise-making items should it venture that far given the din of barking dogs inside.

It means no harm, and I've gotten to where I like this fellow, gal, whatever. I'm not about to sex it.  Yes, uninterrupted sleep will be scarce until hibernation/aestivation sets in...and next spring, I'm guessing (hoping?) I'll be saying hello once again.  It is bear season, now, and well before sunrise there was what sounded like a distant gunshot somewhere toward Hall Top.  I will hope it was just a warning shot, if that's what it was.

Last night, I didn't bellow at it.  I just poked my head out of the door and as I talked to it in a normal voice, it turned around and faced me at my gate.  We just looked at each other a bit, very peacefully. Then, it turned its head and slowly slipped into the darkenss of the mountainside.  I vow that I'll be prepared to play one of my flutes for it one night and see how that goes.  :-)

Pretty good rain chances moving in tonight and hanging around through Wednesday.  Haven't had measurable precipitation for the past 12 days, which contrasted with the 10+ inches we had in the 2 weeks prior to that.  Lots of winter predictions are out, and I'll post something on that later next week.  For now, let's enjoy the above-average temperatures before they go on hiatus.

Bob

TOTALS...NOW TIME TO DRY!

7PM 10-5-15 FROM THE END OF STAYMON

One last hurrah of a shower came through around 730pm last evening, but around 7pm a most unusual snippet of a rainbow popped through an isolated shaft of light and lit the area up orange as seen from the end of Staymon (click to enlarge).

Here in Haywood the rains were more limited during the October 1 - October 4 window that the National Weather Service was using for storm totals in the region. I measured 3.47" for those days. Our rains were more long-running and better measured in the September 25 - October 5 range where I measured 10.73".

CLICK HERE to see the official tallies from the Charleston, SC NWS office...highest in Charleston County proper, over 2 feet of rain in 4 days.   Ugh....


Bob

GOOD NEWS?....

In a nutshell, Hurricane Joaquin models have continued a more northeasterly movement, to the point that the heavy rain threat here in the mountains is pulling back. It's a royal mess, and will continue to be, in the Piedmont and points east in the Carolinas, but Joaquin's water input into our coastal low is reduced for us here in western NC.  We still have one soggy weekend on tap, and rain totals will still measure a few inches, but I am relieved by what I saw last night and am seeing this morning.

There is a high wind warning as well for higher elevations...and it has nothing to do with Joaquin.  The pressure differential between a Canadian high and our coastal low will create windy conditions, but even that looks to affect more the mountains NNE of Asheville, not Haywood except the Parkway area and highest peaks.  Any good stiff gusts could topple weak trees in our soggy soils, but, as I said earlier, original threats here are much lower this morning than previous models hinted at.  I'll take that as a very good bit of news.

Bob

WEATHER UPDATE

Poor Grand Bahama Banks...a Category 4 hurricane is bad enough, but to have one sit over you for days has to be devastating, The latest models keep Joaquin offshore with no landfall, a trend now for 36 hours. 

(click on any image to enlarge it)

CURRENT SURFACE MAP

But our rain concerns aren't about a landfall...it's a triple play that is in place atmospherically which is going to make a bad situation worse.  The thunderstorms we had Wednesday were due to a cold front that ended up stalling just off the coast, and is now backing in slightly as a stationary front.  At the GA-FL border is a fairly strong upper level low sitting on that front, a low that will ever so slowly creep up the coast.  That set-up alone is reason enough for a lot of rain here.  Add to that Joaquin spinning northward later today with that counter-clockwise spin, as it will be feeding copious moisture into the flow around that coastal low, exacerbating the situation.

And even THAT in itself would be enough of a horrible mess.  Add to that all the rain we've had in the past week: 4.37" as of Thursday morning, with 1.67" falling Wednesday afternoon at my house at the end of Staymon...now we throw in super-saturated soils and breezier conditions, which can bring weaker trees down and possibly drop power lines.  Oy vey...

5 DAY RAIN TOTALS

While it will be far heavier amounts east of us, latest models still have us in a 7-10" rainfall today through Monday.  I worry about rockslides in the I-40 gorge for sure, and Maggie has plenty of history with mudslides.

If I get any interesting data or unusual updates, I'll post them here.


Bob

NEW BOARD AND 2016 BUDGET

(Here is the new board and contact information, followed by the upcoming budget.  If you have any questions about anything, please contact one of those listed.   Bob)

-------------------------------------------

President- Owen Fulghum

owenfulghum@gmail.com

Vice President - Linda Hughes

savellus1220@aol.com

Vice President in Charge of Roads-  

Jeff Hintzman

 jeffhintzman@att.net

Secretary- Fay Grant

 fayaiyana@me.com

Treasurer- Tom Batchelor

 tombatchelor@charter.net

Keith Patton has agreed to help Jeff with decisions concerning our roads during the year.

We appreciate his help in doing this.

---------------------------------------------

BUDGET for Apple Creek Acres Homeowners Association - 2016

Note: As of 8/19/15 the Association had a fund balance of $7,074.28. There are projected expenses of $3000.28 for the remainder of the year. There is a carry over to reduce next year’s assessment in the amount of $4,074.00.

Projected Expenses:

Roads:

Main Road Repair $21,799.00*

Side Roads 4000.00

Snow Removal/Salt 7000.00

Sub Total $32,799.00

Other:

Legal $1000.00

Mailing 100.00

Office Supplies 100.00

Bank Fees 75.00

Reimbursement 1000.00

Insurance 750.00 (general liability coverage for protecting ACAHA at large)

Sub Total $3025.00

Total Expenses: $35,824.00

Income: $31,750.00 2016 Assessment of $250.00 x 127 lots

4,074.00 Carry over from 2015

Total Funds: $35,824.00 for all expenses related to ACAHA road repair and maintenance

*Includes $5,000.00 for needed replacement of first under-road culvert past entrance gate

Note: This budget is a projection of planned expenses. Unplanned events may require the revision of the budget. 

CATCHING UP....

I hope everyone has had a good summer.  More of it left, of course, but schools are back in full swing and I'm now driving a route for Clyde Elementary - it's given me a whole new appreciation and respect for those big yellow cans.  :-)

I got to the annual meeting a few minutes late, but all seemed to go rather smoothly.  A new board was elected, and as soon as I hear from them I'll post whatever it is they'd like to get out to the HOA. 

Got to meet some new faces on the mountain, so welcome!  We got a lot of great paving done this summer, so thanks for everyone's help and inconveniences that long day...well worth everyone's effort.

For any of us that have been up here for any length of time, bears and coyotes come with the territory.  The bears (I seem to have 3 regulars here at the end of Staymon right now) have been making nightly visits onto my deck and riling my pups up.  Been trying to keep damage to a minimum, but I need to double the height of my deck railing up against the hill, methinks.  All that to say to our newcomers "heads up"...for once, I'm kind of wanting winter to get here so they'll go to sleep.

8-21-15 10:30pm

8-22-15 10:45pm

On a brighter note, here are some dawn and rainbow shots from home here at the end of Staymon (click to enlarge):

odd piece of a rainbow from Aug. 20

Aug. 17, 2015

Aug 12, 2015

Bob

AUG. 15:ANNUAL HOA MEETING, NOTES

I trust by now everyone has received their proxies and info sheet on our annual HOA meeting, with the agenda printed on the back side.  On SATURDAY AUGUST 15, our meeting will convene at 10 am in the Haywood County public library...drive around the side and go in the lower level doors to find our meeting room. Meeting should be adjourned by, or before 12 noon.

Proxies are critical for any voting and/or elections.  A quorum of  64 lot/homeowners is needed, though as I type there are only 13 turned in, according to president Keith Patton.  If you are attending in person, you can certainly bring it with you, but for any others, please mail your proxy to your homeowner of choice so they may vote for you.  This is one of the most critical actions we all have to take for the annual meeting.

If you have any questions, please contact a board member.


Bob

PAVING REMINDER - PLAN AHEAD!

The latest official word just came in from president Keith Patton: 

MONDAY JULY 13 Apple Creek Road will be CLOSED from Chris and Helen's house @ 221 Apple Creek Road on up from 8:30AM through 5:00PM. 

It is imperative that no residents try to negotiate the road and drive around the ongoing work, so please plan ahead to leave early if you must, and delay re-entry until late afternoon.  Everyone's cooperation is appreciated, in advance. A significant amount of needed paving will be done, and the weather is looking most cooperative so we can get it done in the one day.

If you have any questions, please contact Keith or any other board member.


Bob

NOTICE: WHITE SUV AT ACA ENTRANCE

Passing along information from president Keith Patton:

If you have driven out and/or into ACA recently, you have noticed a white SUV sitting on the side at our entrance.  Parking on the grassy areas on the side just downhill of the entrance is acceptable, but NOT in the entrance as it presently sits.  It apparently has no connection with the house on the uphill edge of our entrance, so says the Haywood County Sheriff's Office.

Someone noticed a blue car picked up the person/people in the white SUV and proceeded somewhere up into ACA (which as you know is ultimately a dead end no matter where you go).  The sheriff office has urged us to have the car towed at the owner's expense, but we'd like to know who's it is so we can let them know to move it ASAP.  Posting this notice just in case someone will soon read this and know of this situation or a blue car, before it will get towed if nothing soon happens.

Thanks in advance for anyone's help.



Bob

PAVING UPDATE: PLEASE READ

(An update from Keith Patton:)

After checking weekend weather forecasts and consulting with our paving contractor we have determined that there is no chance of having a dry road On Monday 7/6. With this being the case our paving date has been moved to Monday 7/13.
________________________

Happy July 4th to everyone!  Have a fun and safe holiday weekend.


Bob

UPCOMING PAVING INFORMATION

View from the end of Staymon Road last month

The following note is from our president Keith Patton per the upcoming paving on Apple Creek Road.  As you may remember, we got locked out of any paving in 2014 due to consistent weather delays and then the calendar as the plant shut down late fall.  All that to say a good chunk of paving will be done this year, from 211 Apple Creek and above in various places.

The best paving job I've seen here was in 2013...at that time, the HOA requested there be no traffic trying to go around the paving crew, as it helps prematurely break down the paved edges. It worked very very well for what was a limited inconvenience for residents.  For this large amount of paving, the board is requesting drivers to plan ahead around the upcoming work, knowing the road will be closed most of one day.
___________________________

(From Keith Patton)
The tentative dates for our paving work are July 6 or 7. Due to the extensive amount of work to be done we can expect a long road closure on one of these days. The closure will be from 211 Apple Creek Rd. up. I will be in contact as this plan solidifies.
_________________________

Please check back here as I'll be posting information ASAP when I hear further details.  Weather will be the only but potentially big player, FYI.

Bob

ROAD UPDATE....SOME CHANGES

(Posting this to all ACA owners, a message from our President Keith Patton -  Bob)
------------------------------

I know everyone is wanting to know about the delay in getting our road work done. On Friday 6/5, WNC Paving, whom we had contracted with to grade and pack our side roads, failed to show up for the fourth time they had scheduled to do the work. They have been notified that we are moving on to the next lowest bidding company to do our work. I will let you know of the new schedule for road work. 

Thanks for your patience,

Keith

FROM THE BOARD...WANT TO SERVE?

ACA President Keith Patton asked me to pass along the following information.  It is time once again to start thinking about next year's ACA Board.  Anyone who is interested in serving on the 5 person nominating committee, or as a member of the new board, please contact Keith directly.
_____________________________

Throwing in our rain for the past two months (recorded at the end of Staymon):

APRIL    6.36"
MAY      3.11"


Bob

BOARD NEWS

SUNRISE 4-29-15 (CLICK TO ENLARGE)

(From Keith Patton, President ACAHOA)

1. The ACAHA has taken legal action against the 5 property owners delinquent in their association dues.

2. The contractor is scheduled to begin work on the side roads within the next 2 weeks.

3. Paving work will follow completion of the work on side roads.

4. Many of the association ditches and culverts have been cleared by volunteers with part of the work being hired out. If you would like to help please contact a board member.

Thanks,

Keith

FREEZE WARNING FRIDAY A.M.

A Freeze Warning is in effect for ACA for Friday morning with temps falling into the mid and upper 20s.  If you have some fragile blooming plants around your house, it would be wise to cover them up.

Yesterday I posted a bunch of photos from ACA...and I'm adding one more here from yesterday afternoon.  One normally thinks of a rainbow arcing high in the sky, but a bright one developed below my view from the end of Staymon.

(click to enlarge)

Rainbow 4-22-15 late afternoon

Bob

SPRING PHOTOS

What a gorgeous day (albeit cool) we had Monday and yesterday!  This view from home at the end of Staymon Road Monday after a stormy start (to follow):

(CLICK ON PICS TO ENLARGE)

In the pre-dawn hours Monday 4-20, an expansive line of rain and embedded thunderstorms rumbled into western NC.  However, the cloud deck didn't quite cover the eastern horizon, allowing the sun to shine underneath the deck for a very brief time.  The misty orange glow lasted less than 2 minutes, but made for an unusual picture. 

We continue to green mightily in Apple Creek Acres, so posting some of the newer blooms.  So far this month we've had just under 5" of rain, so lush is an understatement!

Carolina Spring Beauty

Squirrel Corn

Chickweed

White varietal of Wake Robin Trillium

Canadian Violet

Large flowering bellwort

Dwarf Larkspur just opening

False Solomon's Seal

Remember all the Asplundh powerline clearing last summer?  Keith Patton smartly had them dump a boatload of the free chips on a needy steep slope just below the upper hairpin curve.  It's now home to a massive mushroom display at the moment!

Bob

FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT

(UPDATE 'the morning after'...!)  Good ol' inversions....as a rule, it's colder the higher up one is, but sometimes it's warmer higher up.  Cold air will sink low at night, and the warmer valley air rises, but sometimes not rising all that much.  And that is exactly what happened this morning.  At 630am, 34 on my elevated deck, 37 on the driveway...and by the time I got to Ingles it was 27 down low.  For all, the bitter cold did NOT manifest, and for that we are thankful, what with all the flowers and buds going gangbusters.

Back in early December, the MOST remarkable inversion I've ever witnessed occurred.  At that 630am or so window, it was 48 at my house at the end of Staymon, and 22 (!!!) at Ingles....that's an inversion of 26 degrees in only a change around 1100-1200 feet in elevation.  Never have I seen such a massive inversion of temps for such a change in elevation!

If you didn't see the prior post to this, check it out for other ACA info.

And to bring back good ol' memories, here is a pic from the end of Staymon on April 7, 2009.  4" of spring snow....  :-/

Bob

NEWS AND INFO UPDATES

March went out like a lamb, but not before two consecutive morning lows of 18 degrees and a fluffy inch of snow the last weekend of March.  :-)  And now the mountainside is greening rather quickly, with a nice display of early season wildflowers showing their stuff.

(click on pics to enlarge)

Updated entrance

Two of our mountain angels are back...and back at it.  Judy and Irene just finished up refurbishing our entrance, which suffered a good bit of damage this winter.  New posts, new cross pieces, cleaned out beds, and we are good to go!  As you may or may not know, no dues money goes to their appreciated work, so I know they would be thankful for any donations toward their efforts to defray their out-of-pocket expenses.  Ya gotta admit, there is nothing nicer than turning left into our sanctuary and seeing it so inviting and nicely kempt.

Hostas at the entrance lookin' good and strong

I just went out today and was a bit surprised to find a bold display of Trout Lillies still out, joined in with mainly the 'white' group of flowers listed.  Here are just a few to be enjoyed...

Spring Beauty

Trout Lily (Dog-tooth Violet to some)

Bloodroot

Cut-leaved Toothwort

One of the cohoshes

(7pm update) The weather has behaved since that late March cold snap, but another cold front could bring some rumbles of thunder and windier conditions in the mountains overnight through tomorrow morning. There is a tornado watch in TN up to the Haywood border, though.  Biggest concern is fire danger as high winds will be blowing through the day.  We don't need a situation like Black Mountain just went through with a wildfire. 

Now that I'm on the mountain most days, I've joined the CoCoRAHs network, which basically keeps precipitation records reported daily to a national group.  I didn't officially start until March 8, so I missed the first week.  But I got 2.56" of rain (and any snow equivalent in meltwater) for March.  I'll be posting rainfall totals each month in addition to everything else from here on out. 


Bob

BRRRRRR!

19 degrees and 1" of very fluffy, non-icy snow this morning.  In fact, water equivalent was only 0.04", so very little moisture.  I easily swept off the stairs to non-icy wood, and could not feel iciness on the driveway which had only a dusting collected in spots.  Heading out shortly and don't anticipate any problems.  Another freeze warning for tonight with lows back down into the teens, then we'll start warming back up, thankfully.


Bob

WINTER RETURNS...BUT NOT FOR LONG

Around midnight tonight we may get a skiff of snow...models have ACA in the 0-1" range, with the NAM having 2" close by.  Just doesn't look like a lot of moisture once the colder air gets here.

Lows Saturday and Sunday will be cold enough to do a whammy on some buds and early flowers.  Low 20s Saturday and upper teens Sunday are not welcome temps for tender vegetation.  However, temps do start rebounding soon enough so we'll be back to the business watching the greening of our mountainsides.

Nice color after a March sunset

THE WEEK AHEAD....

We're never "out of the woods" in ACA in early March, but at least incoming inclement weather is liquid this week.  The only problem is, it's every day even through the weekend, though by Sunday chances are down to 30%.

There is a very small window around 7am Monday that any rain falling may be wet snow, but roads will NOT be an issue.  Gorgeous warm temps today, and lows only around freezing at coldest (if that) will prevent any travel issues...other than that, we're well above freezing and all liquid all week.

2-2.5" of rain are likely over the week ahead.  No biggee there as it's off and on the whole period, but I know here at the end of Staymon the gravel road becomes a quagmire with excess liquid, so will enjoy the Boot Scootin' Boogie for a flat stretch as my buggy waffles in the mire.  :-)


Bob

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TODAY

Originally, I wasn't going to post anything as it seemed ACA wouldn't really be affected. However, the NWS at GSP has ACA in a Winter Weather Advisory from 6am through 6pm today, Thursday. 

They are calling for rapidly falling temps and precipitation which could start rain, go to freezing rain, and even switch over to some snow and sleet, in the 1-3" range.  I don't see that much (if any) here in ACA (my models still say 0-1"), but closer to the TN border it's plausible.

With that said, it's 56 degrees here at the end of Staymon as I type just before 6am, so even if wintry stuff falls later today, we have warm roads, hence little to no concern for slippery driving.  It'll be colder for a couple of days, but this, too, shall pass.



Bob

AS WE THAW.....

Keep in mind that with 3 successive snow events in barely over a week, the roads are narrower in some places.  Too, mailboxes and posts may be greatly covered, and it is the HOMEOWNER'S responsibility to keep the postal box clear for delivery.  

If you don't know Donna, you should....she is the main person at the helm for our USPS delivery, and she does a bang up job.  Help her make her job easier by keeping your mail box cleared for easy delivery.  

YAY for the sun I'm seeing as I type and the above freezing temps for some more melting.  This, too, shall pass....


Bob

AND NOW FOR THE DIGGING OUT....

President Keith Patton wrote last night that the plowing crew will be here when they can get here today.  Travel today may not be possible in ACA.
-----------------------------------------

End of Staymon ~3800'

Very happy Pine Siskins and Goldfinches!

I have 8.0" of new snow here at the end of Staymon, so on the high side.  But an interesting storm overall for the Carolinas as some places looking for 8-12" got 1" before it turned to sleet and rain.  Ouch.  Small changes in storm tracks can make for big result changes.

I'll use this page for posting updated info and pics.  If you revisit this page later, you may need to hit the refresh button to pick up the changes.

*Here is an updated snow report from the NWS...only one place had more than we got, apparently....HERE


Bob

WINTER STORM WARNING

Yay for the warmer Tuesday afternoon temps to help with road melting and drying out after our plowing.  The next snow maker is poised to our SW to come right up the Carolina coast tonight and be a big snow producer....but the big question is, "Who gets the dumping?"  Unless that low changes course to the west some, it's not ACA.

While close to us, the 7-12" should set up shop south and east of ACA, closer to the eastern Blue Ridge escarpment and Foothills N/W of I-85 in SC/NC.  My models have been solid now for several runs, one 4-5" the other 5-7" (except for the 1am run today: 6-8").  I'm posting the graphic of the latter mainly because it shows that heavier banding E/SE of ACA....I think it best represents what is expected to take place.

NAM run 1am Wednesday (click to enlarge)

TIMING:  Warning in effect from 4pm today through 7a Thursday.  It's a done deal by daybreak. Snow was originally going to get heavy around 8-9p, but that may happen a bit earlier, by late afternoon.  I'll be playing it by 'eye' as I'll be out and about then.

AMOUNTS:  Going to hold ACA in a 4-6" total, which is plenty, but not as heavy as others will get. (7pm update...above 3500' may go 6-8"). Of course, with our elevations from 2800' to 4000',  there could be higher amounts higher up.  Too, temps won't be that far below freezing, so the snow will be wetter, which always increases that chance some may loose power.  I do think someone in the Carolinas will pick up 12", so will be curious to see where the heavy banding sets up shop.

Should the low track a tad west, we get more.  Should it track a tad east, we get a little less.  Thankfully we don't have arctic temps plowing in behind this like we had last week. So batten down the hatches as Snow-Mageddon (NOT!) descends upon us.


Bob

SNOW...AND MORE SNOW

Pics from the end of Staymon (click to enlarge)

UPDATE @9:15am - Got word from Keith Patton that the plow is on its way to ACA.  :-)

Just over 4" so far and 21 degrees at the end of Staymon.  A picturesque snow, this one, and light and powdery.  Sure beats the ice and sleet that mixed in the last one.

ACA is in a Winter Storm Warning through 4pm today, with accumulations around 4", but highs have warmed above forecast (34 at 11:55a, yay!), and breezy conditions later.  But wait....

ACA is also under a Winter Storm Watch from 6pm Wednesday through 6am Thursday.  No amounts forecast yet by the NWS, but it has the makings of a snow bigger than this one.  The NAM is pushing 10" for ACA but the GFS is just around 5", as of last night's runs.

For now, I'll use this page for any road updates, pictures, etc. 


Bob

BLACK ICE AND....DARE I SAY?

The Winter Weather Advisory in place for ACA this morning is for black ice concerns...and my driveway had a thin ice glaze before 6am.  30 degrees as I type here at the end of Staymon, so please use caution on our roads because at this moment I have no idea the extent of ice and temperatures.

The weather stays chilly and unsettled for a few days, and though temps will make for a wintry mix at times today, it's light and not a big concern.  However, tonight into early Tuesday, the NWS may hoist another advisory for 1-2" of snow.  My models are in agreement, one being 0.5-2" and the other 2-3".  Though they cover a total over days, the best chances are for this period.

Some of you may have discovered first hand now next to impossible it is to pull a slope in pure slush, which we had on side roads here yesterday as temps hit 50 and above.  I was one of the fortunate early on to make it up the steep assault on the lower half of Staymon, but that was on the fourth try in 4-low.  At least the slush has hardened or soon will.  :-)


Bob

GOOD NEWS? YOU DECIDE...

I found it heartening to wake up and find our Winter Storm Watch downgraded to a Winter Weather Advisory.  The low pressure system bringing us this wintry mix early is tracking well to our west and northwest...the only reason we're talking Advisory even is because we're stinkin' cold this morning, minus 5 here at the end of Staymon.  Had only 7 for a high yesterday here, but milder air is coming soon, so here's what to expect.

The best chances for any precipitation are after midnight tonight, and should be mostly snow, But sleet mixes in and the net idea is that as Saturday rolls on it slowly switches to all rain.  Stays rain well into Sunday, too, with temps above freezing, the warmest being Sunday afternoon hopefully in the 40s.  Any new accumulations wash away, though snow washes before ice.  My two models at this time have now pulled back to 0-1".  The Advisory calls for 1-3", but not feeling that, myself, not with mine both going bottom category.

So that's good news in my book. HOWEVER...another shot of cold air comes in late Sunday....from then into Monday we may be in another Advisory for lightly accumulating snow.  But let's get past the next 24-36 hours first.  Rain and warmer temps will be our friend in this upcoming event,  I'm already enjoying the thought of hot water in my kitchen sink, just like Linn D wrote about a couple of days ago.  :-)


Bob