WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY

ACA is now under a Winter Weather Advisory for locations above 3500' from 7pm tonight through noon Friday.  For those up here, you've felt the temperature drop this afternoon (34 as I type near 3:45pm), with whippy winds that have brought down numerous dead limbs on our roads. In addition, a Wind Advisory is in place through 6pm Friday, with these gusty winds continuing.

My favored models still hold a dusting-1", but the National Weather Service sees something more in the 1"-2" category.  Probably closer to the TN border, but if the upslope snow showers come SE directly inline with I-40, we could see close to that.  Heavier snow could cover our roads, at least in part, but if these winds stay up, it will also keep it from accumulating in spots.  Highs Friday are expected to stay in the 30s.

All that to say we may well have some slick roads on at least the upper half of Apple Creek Road overnight into Friday morning.  For our new residents, that magical 3500' line is the Moskos family's blue roof house on AC Road at Dawen Circle.  Often you'll see big changes above and below that location.

The weekend has a warm-up in store with solid rain chances Sunday and Monday.  In the previous post today, I mentioned 'snow' afoot in the long-term forecast around January 5-6 late next week.  More on that as the time approaches.


Bob

2016: Quick Wrap

I hope this post finds everyone continuing to enjoy the holidays. Been rather quiet on the mountain, and thankfully rains returned to our forecasts after the devastating Gatlinburg (and other) fires since the last post.

Back several weeks we had a solid shot of Arctic air where lows got into the lower teens a couple of mornings...but to date we have not had even a skiff of snow, and temperatures have returned to the mild side of the fence.  In fact, on Christmas evening it was still 52 degrees at 8pm....quite the contrast to 6 years ago when we got 9" of snow in ACA!

Christmas 2010 @ end of Staymon Rd.

Late tonight, there is a limited chance for a dusting-1" snow...with our warm ground temps, should the snow even fall, I don't foresee any travel issues getting off the mountain.  Pretty minor set-up.  

If you want to see a decent snow, you may well get your wish the end of next week, January 5-6.  Preliminary outlooks suggest 4"-7" of snow, but with so many variables this far out, just a heads up for now.

May you all continue to have a safe and enjoyable holiday, and best wishes for a grand start to 2017!  I'll be posting weather/travel updates closer to any event that may be heading our way.

Bob

EARLY DECEMBER UPDATE

SUNRISE, end of Staymon

Well, we've gone from famine to feast, at least kinda sorta...light rain is falling as I type.  We got just just over 2.25" late last week over a few days, and already have more with rain that started Sunday with 0.27" by 7am. This after a bit of a strong drought here in Haywood County.  The fires have been devastating, especially in east Tennessee, but Haywood County has been spared all along.  Hopefully all this rain has at the very least tamed the fires...

For starters, here is an excellent website showing before and after aerial pictures of the Gatlinburg area where at last count 11 people died, along with numerous structures. Click on GATLINBURG FIRES . You slide the bar left and right to see the before and after pictures.

Wintry weather has been slow to manifest this season, but we have a very good chance of seeing a dusting this coming Thursday evening.  Lows will approach the single digits Friday morning, by far the coldest of the season, so make sure your well-head is well insulated.  It won't last long, thankfully.  For those new to the mountain and ACA, a light coating on the road is troublesome for drivers in ACA.  I would like to think there will be no troubles early Friday morning, but I'll update later this week if I see changes/concerns.

In all, we've been fortunate, and the recent rains will only help our wells.  I'll update as needed, of course.


Bob

WHERE THERE'S SMOKE....

(click on pics to enlarge)

Smoky view from end of Staymon 1-6-19-16

Thanks to a large wildfire in Jackson County, current light winds have been blowing the expansive smoke into Haywood County.  You can see it and smell it...and for those not on the mountain, we are officially in a Severe Drought, with Extreme Drought south and west of us.  High pressure ridges have been dominating the Southeast for over two months, and there is no relief in sight anytime soon. The jetstream needs to start moving to shift the ridges away from here, and there is no sign of significant movement yet.  

Besides needing rain badly, our utility bills have been pleasantly low thanks to the warm temperatures overall.  While not the upper 70s, we'll still be above the average high of around 63 degrees this coming week.  At the end of Staymon, I've still had only 35 degrees as the coldest morning since last season, and no frost yet. Inversions have been alive and well as the valleys have been the colder and frostier locations.

Dawn from the end of Staymon 10-30-16

To end on a nicer note, above is some pretty dawn color from last Sunday.  Thankfully, Daylight Saving Time has kicked in so I can see more dawns like this before heading to work.  


Bob

CATCHING UP...

10-22-16 Saturday dawn (click to enlarge)

October 22. Saturday morning a rather remarkable record of sorts was set...it was by far the latest ever I have recorded my first reading in the 30s to start our descent into the winter months.  Got down to 35 degrees about the time the above photo was taken at the end of Staymon.  Just in the prior days record highs were set in Asheville (84, 84) and Greenville-Spartanburg (89, 87)....and this after the warmest September on record for Asheville.

But now it finally feels like October, and the color is a bit behind schedule.  Rain has been hard to come by...picked up 0.42" with the Hurricane Matthew passage off the NC coast, and just 0.16" Friday with the cold front passage.  The leaves came down mightily Thursday and Friday in the windy conditions, totally covering portions of our roads, but there was a charm (if not a slippery one) driving through it.

Had a bizarre situation happen 2 weeks ago at the intersection of Hall Top and Mauney Cove.  A pickup truck had turned up onto Hall Top and stopped in the middle of the road...Bus #52 was coming down and had to stop...after being stopped for a minute, the truck ever so slowly backed up and headed back down Mauney, slowly at first...then faster and weaving and was far into the left lane, swerving to narrowly miss a red car coming up Mauney.  They then hit the brakes and threw the truck into reverse near the book store and came right at me.  I hit the horn and threw my car into reverse and thankfully no one was behind me.  Then a man came running up from the book store driveway yelling "Who fired that rifle?" at the gray truck who slowly turned into that drive and stopped, the man yelling at the driver to get out of the truck in colorful language...all that to say it was a very scary situation of someone either extremely drunk or high on drugs driving, and with the yelling about a rifle I got out of there as quickly as I could.  Never found out any more than that, and thankfully I didn't watch a potentially deadly head-on collision take place.

It was only a week before that that one of our residents was out for a night dog walk and saw a vehicle stopped with the interior cab light on. As they approached, the driver was clearly visible shooting up drugs in his arm. The walker turned on their flashlight and told them to get the hell out of here and they sped off.  Unfortunately, they were unable to get a tag # but did what we all should do when we see something like that: call the sheriff (828-452-6666).  It wasn't a resident of ACA, but a stark reminder that we are not immune to society's ills here on our mountain.  Everyone's vigilance is greatly appreciated.

If you love the Farmer's Almanac, it calls for a snowy cold winter here...but it is odd man out stacked against National Weather Service long range forecasts.  Most models say we'll stay above average for temps into December, and then be right around average for temps into 2017.  Precipitation may still be hard to come by for a while as we have seen a parade of high pressure cells set up over the Southeast which is supposed to continue.  Not that we won't get some solid cold snaps and hits of good rain once in a while, mind you, it's just the overall trend at this time.  The upside is I'm loving my utility bills so far.  :-)


Bob

HEADS UP: POACHERS

'Tis the season.

Ginseng 

With fall here in the favorable mountain elevations, ginseng or " 'sang" is heading into tell-tale red berry season.  Truth be told, it has many wonderful medicinal properties, ginseng, the roots of which bring a pretty penny these days.  And with that lucrative lure comes the poachers that will do whatever it takes to find and dig up the plant.

That means trespassing and not giving a tinker's damn about your property and your rights.  And right here in Apple Creek.  Sadly, it's an annual event, but there IS something each of us can do.

When you see a strange vehicle in a location that is not normal, get the tag number and call the Haywood Sheriff's office.  If you see strangers walking on or near your property and you don't know who they are, be observant with descriptions and call the Haywood Sheriff's office.  Our Community Watch program is only effective as our diligent observations and awareness, and there is an officer dedicated to Apple Creek Acres.

Haywood Sheriff's Office: 828-452-6666

Put it in your cell phone if you haven't done so already.

PAVING DATE CHANGE

What was September 8 for a day of paving on Apple Creek Road has now been shifted to Tuesday September 13.  Pass the word.


Bob

PAVING: SAVE THE DATE!

(The following is from Jeff Hintzman)

Our road paving is going to take place Thursday, September 8th starting at about 8:30 am. They should be able to finish in a day, but it could run into the 9th.  A sign will beat the bottom of the hill in a few days to this effect.  

Keep in mind that this is all 'weather permitting'; please plan ahead knowing the road will be closed in places at that time.

Bob

QUICK UPDATE: MEETING, BEARS

It takes a quorum of 64 lots to hold our annual HOA meeting and we had exactly that Saturday morning.  I volunteered to be secretary, so once I type up minutes and have them looked over and approved, I'll pass them along here.  Too, you will get a hard copy with your dues later this year.  As well, it was good to meet and greet some new full-time residents on our mountain at the meeting!  Thanks to all that turned out (or turned in proxies).

One area of discussion that affects us in ACA (read "especially those with bird feeders") was about the bear or bears currently hanging around ACA. As Keith Patton reminded us, "A fed bear is a dead bear" and he provided a video link that drives home the point: minimizing opportunities for bears to get food at houses, be it bird seed, pet food, unsecured garbage, etc. They'll move on naturally, hopefully sooner as opposed to later.  (NOTE: The video link was designed for WY residentsl; while it's over the top for here, the basic principles are the same for all bear-human contact.)

And apologies to any neighbors of mine within earshot that hear an air horn go off in the dark of night (like last night).  I've found it to be the most effective way to get one to move away from the house if it doesn't do so on its own.


Bob

HOA ANNUAL MEETING REMINDER

8-13-16 Sunrise from the end of Staymon Rd.
(click to enlarge)

I apologize for not posting this in advance...slipped through my swiss cheese brain!

2016 Annual HOA Meeting

Saturday August 13

9:30am - until

The Vine, Depot Street, Waynesville

I will post official minutes once they become available and sent to me.


Bob

CLEVER BEAR...

Molly by cantilevered deck support (read "bear ladder")

Goodbye, trusted feeders...

It wasn't too long before dawn that a sudden noise had the pups in an uproar.  I looked out the window to the closed deck gate and the un-tripped booby-traps I set up....a railing climbing bear would have knocked over some loud items coming onto the deck and retreated.

Alas, I went on the deck around 630am and for the first time for me here (heard it done lots before), the bear climbed up a cantilevered deck support and in one fell swoop pulled a two-feeder solid metal pole over almost 180 degrees. It's a feeder damaged a couple of years ago by another bear, and I remember trying to straighten a far more modest bend using a large vise and my 250 pound weight...and it took a serious amount of effort on my part.

So the moral of this story is if a passing bear wants something, they will try many ways to get it.  I didn't expect a climbing attack so left the feeders out given the prior successes of my noisy traps.  Note to self: feeders go in at night.



Bob

HEADS UP FOR BEARS

Bull Elk #16 from the Cataloochee herd

This is really more for visitors and new residents in Apple Creek.  Bear sightings are a part of life here, and the majority come and go, moving on.  While I've not laid eyes on the most recent activity, some residents have passed on they've seen a mama bear and twin cubs, which explains my dogs' behaviors the past few days.  Protect any feeders you have out, pets, etc., and please make sure you don't provide them any food sources to hang around.

I hope everyone is having a good summer!


Bob

HEADS UP FOR BEARS

Bull Elk #16 from the Cataloochee herd

This is really more for visitors and new residents in Apple Creek.  Bear sightings are a part of life here, and the majority come and go, moving on.  While I've not laid eyes on the most recent activity, some residents have passed on they've seen a mama bear and twin cubs, which explains my dogs' behaviors the past few days.  Protect any feeders you have out, pets, etc., and please make sure you don't provide them any food sources to hang around.

I hope everyone is having a good summer!


Bob

JUST TOUCHING BASE...

At least here at the end of Staymon, all has been quiet this summer, insofar as ACA news or information.  I was just driving up from an early morning run to town when I thought I'd at least post some pictures from dawns and sunrises that I've take the past couple of months.  Haven't been able to do much since my surgery, but that will soon change as I'm getting pretty doggone mobile, all things considered.

Upon pulling up to park at home, there was a sudden sizable coyote yip-howl way down around the big farm for sale on Mauney Cove Road.  Got out to listen and kept my pups in the car...and then much to my surprise a second large pack started a yip-howl in response, the latter somewhere far to the NW end of ACA or the upper Mauney Cove dead-end area.  I've never heard dual packs going at it here, especially at 1030am...and enough to say to our newer residents/visitors that coyotes are always around, and to just keep a heads up if you have pets that are out and about.

Back to serenity.  Click to enlarge these pics I snapped in early mornings the past couple of months. I have no ACA news to pass along, per paving and otherwise, but when I do I'll post it here.  Hope everyone is having a great summer!

Bob

ROAD WORK DATES!!!

The following is important information from Jeff Hintzman for all ACA residents:
___________________

Dates and times for culvert replacement work NEXT WEEK:

The culvert on Burnt Fork Monday 5/23 between 8:00 and 12:00 AM

The culvert on Camry Monday 5/23 between 12:00 and 4:00 PM. 

The culvert at the end of Trambley Dr. will be replaced on Wednesday 5/25 between 8:00 AM and 4:00 PM. 

The last culvert at the bottom of the hill will be replaced on Thursday 5/26 between 8:00 AM and 4:00 PM.

A sign will be put up at the entrance as well when needed.

KEEP IN MIND this is all "weather permitting."


Bob

UPCOMING ROAD WORK: PLEASE READ

The board wants to alert ACA residents of upcoming road work, with two projects in particular shutting down Apple Creek Road for 4-6 hours.

At the moment, this work is roughly a week or two away, depending on the weather and the contractor.  For the moment, just planting the knowledge, and when specific dates and times become available, they will be posted here.

We will be replacing  4 culverts in ACA. Two of them will shut down the main road for 4 to 6 hours: the first big culvert at the bottom of the hill, and the culvert at the end of Trambley Dr.  The other two are on Camry and Burnt Fork Trail, These will both be completed in one day, the impact on traffic will be considerably less on the other two. 

Please check back for updates, which will be posted with as much lead time as possible.  Thanks in advance for everyone's cooperation.


Bob

CHECK YOUR BIRD FEEDERS...

I got paid a visit by "Bogart" twice last night...luckily he or she didn't make it to my feeders, which I'll start securing each night.  Dick Fields, just below the double hairpins, had a metal feeder demolished and another disappear altogether.  Comes with the territory here, so a word to the wise.

For those not up on the mountain, side roads got scraped and smoothed out last week. Thanks!

Bob

SPRING HAS DONE SPRUNG

The warmer weather is here to stay, and the greening has long been underway on our mountain.  While the trees are a bit behind, the wildflower profusion is glorious, but I'm afraid with my bum legs right now it's hard to get out my trail into the woods for more and better photographs.  As of early June I'll be Bionic Man with two new full metal knees and able to explore more...they say.  Yay!

Each year I realize I post the same flowers, but this is for those not here right now, as well as any new residents.  I went to shoot some pics of Squirrel Corn at the Big Curve, but wouldn't you know the first pic I tried to take the camera said "battery exhausted".  Grrrrrrr.  So I'll post some others later for those that want to know what they are looking at.

Cut-Leaved Toothwort

Birds Eye Violet

Dwarf Larkspur

FIddlehead Fern

Large Flowering Bellwort

Large Flowering Trillium

Smooth Violet

Star Chickweed

Wake Robin Trillium (white varietal, of course)

Bob

COMMUNITY WATCH

At the base of Staymon you'll see a tan GMC Envoy with a badly cracked windshield, some body damage, and no tag.  It's mine.  Nationwide is sending someone to pick it up today, supposedly, since they totaled it as a result of those high winds two Saturdays ago. (Ah, gotta love the way insurance works...or not.)

But I thought this would be a good time to remind our newer residents that we have what I think is a good community watch program - and it's nothing more than each of us being vigilant when we see things, vehicles, people out of place.  It's always wise to keep a pen and paper handy to write down tag numbers and/or descriptions, time stamps, etc. should you need to contact the sheriff's office, board members, etc.

The Haywood County Sheriff's office makes an effort to pass through every now and then, and were hugely helpful when we had to deal with our infestation of nefarious motorcycle thugs last year.  Keep their number handy and put it in your phone if you haven't already done so:

Haywood Sheriff:  828-452-6666

Looks like we're done with any more freezing temps.  Time to enjoy the greening of our wonderful mountainside!

Bob

UPCOMING WEATHER

Here's the dope on what's ahead:

Any chances for light snow will be Friday night, now, not Thursday night.  Saturday and Sunday mornings will be freezes in the mid 20s, give or take a couple of degrees. Any snow accumulations should be above 3500', and for ACA I'd imagine at worst it would be a dusting on non-road surfaces only.  Both models I use are going 0-1".  I can't imagine there will be any road issues...unless it's downed trees across the road...

More strong winds will move in for about a 60-hour period starting today.  During this time, there will be some periods where winds could gust up to 40mph.  Our protection in ACA is more from S and SW winds, but these will be NW winds and will be felt more.  May your houses and cars not meet my car's fate from the last wind event early Sunday morning.

I'll be away through this period and won't have my computer, but if I see something interesting I'll use my phone and add it to the comments.  Happy Spring, Y'all!


Bob

SEVERE WINDS LAST NIGHT

Eegads, it was ferocious between 2a and 3a last night.  Especially considering we were fairly protected being on the NE face of the ridge, it was as loud as I've heard it in many years.  Unfortunately, the roulette wheel wasn't kind to my Envoy as a large limb from very high up landed squarely on my roof, windshield, and hood.

On a more positive note, it's a gorgeous cloudless day as I type, albeit cool.  The Bloodroot by my house was soaking up the sunshine today, once we got rid of our 29 degree low chill.

Bloodroot

Too, still looking for a rain-snow-mix-to-snow close to daybreak Friday.  Any snows this time of year don't hang around long, so at this time I'm not anticipating road troubles.  I'll post more by Wednesday night.


Bob

"WHAT THE WHAT???....

Guess I've been watching too much "Modern Family" and Phil Dunphy lately.  Posting this today instead of tomorrow because you'd think it's an April Fools joke.  Oh, you can see the steady greening of our mountain already, and it's glorious.  Noticed Bloodroot is out and surely some others, and the first few weeks of April foliage explodes.  We've had some wonderfully mild days, as well, adding to spring fever.
  
Alas, early April snows happen here every 2 or 3 years.  Yep, that's where this is going...possibly.

APRIL 8 8am GFS run

I know it's just a model, and models in transition times of the year like this can be very fickle and fleeting.  But find NC, period, much less the mountains, and what the above run for early Friday April 8 is some serious cold and snow almost to the Outer Banks.

It may not happen.  It may start disappearing in each model run.  Just wanted to take the opportunity to wish everyone well, and for the newcomers on the mountain get ready to watch a profusion of wildflowers unfold in the next few weeks.

Oh, and to not put away the winter gear just yet...

Bob  :-)

MONDAY MORNING UPDATE

Got close to 1.5" of snow, with a low so far of 24 degrees here at the end of Staymon.  Looks like with the cold and dry air, helped by breezy conditions, the moisture sublimated on my driveway, which is to say anything frozen skipped over the liquid phase and went straight to a gas. It was dry and not slippery.

That's not to say there aren't icy patches on Apple Creek Road, though.  Heading down in a half hour, and if I find something news worthy I'll post it later.  Otherwise....Happy Monday! (Oxymoron, yes...)


Bob

WEATHER UPDATE

Saturday afternoon, the sun came out and made a beautiful double rainbow here.  Shots are from my home @ 4:45pm (click to enlarge).

Been off the mountain a while, and just got back.  Already close to 1/3" here, and of course the snow cover started in earnest at 3500'.  :-)   Temperature has dropped to 33 degrees, with a forecast low in the 20s.  Black ice will be a concern, along with accumulating snow.

Maybe my trusty GFS model pushing for 2-4" will verify.  The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for ACA for elevations above 2500' (instead of the usual 3500'), calling for 1-3" of snow.  The advisory runs until 10am Monday.

Slippery roads will be developing before too long, and tomorrow morning should be a mess here. Because I'm involved with the school system, a delay is certainly possible,  If it appears buses can't safely run by 9am, it will be a no-day for all. The up-side is radar echoes at 9pm show a quickly-diminishing precipitation field.  Black ice will be the biggest concern.

Be careful y'all.  I'll update as needed later.



Bob

WACKY WEEKEND WEATHER

4:45pm Rainbow from End of Staymon, 3-19-16
(CLICK TO ENLARGE)

Well, 'tis the weekend, and rain is SUPPOSEDLY incoming...been an okay day heretofore, minus a few showery episodes.  Colder air IS here for tomorrow and Monday, and while early Sunday morning snow may mix with rain, my ONLY concern for travel troubles is pre-dawn Monday morning.  Only then do temperatures drop below freezing at or before midnight, with the chance of wrap-around flurries continuing to near dawn.  All it will take is a 1/4" of fluff on the road to make for slippery road concerns.  I'll update here if there are any developments I see from now through lunch Sunday.

NAM is 1-2", and the 'more accurate' GFS is 2-3".  We're so warm that rain mixing in will greatly limit accumulations.  Won't be surprised to see white on ground/clean roads tomorrow morning, but early Monday it's a wild-card to see what amount of snow is leftover once temps goes below 32 degrees.  A dusting to 1.25" is my best guess for ACA, low to high in elevation.

Bob

70's AND SNOW?

No doubt we've all relished the wonderful warm weather of late...and even with showers and possibly thunderstorms passing through into early next week, temps still stay mild.  By midweek, some may see 70s again...however....

March Madness isn't just about basketball...the weather can be as fickle and transient as it gets.  I was looking back in past photo files and have files of several early April snows from the end of Staymon, so it's not unusual to get late season snows.

With that said, heads up for Saturday-Sunday March 19th-20th...been looking at this a few days, and this season's most accurate model (GFS) has a big shot of Canadian air coming in quickly behind a strong cold front that should pass through Saturday afternoon.  At least on the maps, the precipitation goes over to snow in ACA late Saturday through the first half of Sunday.

These 'far out' looks can't be fully trusted, but it seems to me that even if the snow is minimal (or at all), we get the cold.  Grass seed should be okay, but young tender plants need to be kept indoors for a few more weeks.  The good news is should it be a winter event, we go into it with warm road and ground temperatures.  Too, any storms this late in the season, they rarely hang around long.

Until then, enjoy the 'lamb' March has been so far.


Bob

SNOW UPDATE

CRABTREE BALD 3-2-16 (click to enlarge)

'Twas a chilly day today, cold enough above 4,000' for snow and heavy frost when the clouds hung on the peaks earlier. Took the above photo from home this afternoon around 5pm. We're awaiting an incoming system that has more exceptions than rules when it comes to accumulations, so it seems.

Light snow could fall around daybreak Thursday, but that won't be an issue and may not even happen.  Sometime in the late part of the day, precipitation will be a rain-snow mix with temps just above freezing. The higher the elevation, the more snow there is overnight, and the lower the elevation the more rain there is, making accumulations hard to come by in the valleys.  The precipitation should hang around most of the night before clearing early Friday.

Both GFS and NAM models have been on the 2"-4" bandwagon all along, with the NAM having hot flashes up to 6-8" on a couple of odd runs.  This season, the GFS has proven to be the most accurate, and it has held in the 2"-3" range.  I feel something in the 1"-2" range is what I expect to see here at the end of Staymon, given the rain that may restrict higher amounts.

Whatever falls, nature will take care of it soon enough on Friday, as temps start to warm well above freezing.  Slushy snow is extremely slippery, so should it coat Apple Creek Road, be wary of that.

-----------------------

Revisiting the prior post per bears, I was asked to remind everyone that under no circumstances should anyone on purpose be putting out any food sources for them. Wildlife officials will tell you "a fed bear is a dead bear."  Rest assured they'll find a bird feeder here and there on the mountain, but once you've been raided you'll see to it it doesn't happen again.  Let 'em go their own way and find their own food naturally.

Bob

WEATHER AND BEARS (YEP...)

Molly is my "Sheriff", a Border-Aussie rescue from Sarge's.  She wants to herd everyone and every animal she meets, and she is quite vocal if she spots activity in the woods.  Last week, on a couple of nights, she started barking like crazy several times in the middle of the night, lying by the back door and fixated on something she saw or heard.  I would look outside into the woods but I never could see anything.  Then, just two days ago, I was talking with a store clerk who lives on the Maggie side of our mountain, and he told me about a bear that came on his deck just the night before....so now it makes sense: some bears are starting to move and look for food, and as we all know, they course our mountain rather regularly.  Just a heads up, especially for those like myself that keep bird feeders out.  

Spring on our mountain, especially through April, explodes with a profusion of wildflowers.  I'm sure many of us are ready and looking forward to it.  Models had shown some possible wintry mix to move through Thursday night, but for the past few days, many outlets were minimizing it.  Imagine my surprise to dig into my favored model outputs late Sunday and see 2"-3" coming out of the one model that has nailed just about every wintry forecast this season (GFS).  It has held this way for 4 consecutive runs, too.  The NAM 'sees' only 3.5 days out, and is only just now touching on that possibility, but it has already gone up to 1" just in the past run.  The best-guess time-frame is 11p Thursday through daybreak Friday.

I know a good many of us would prefer to not deal with wintry conditions again...but it has certainly piqued my interest that the model is showing something that is not being talked about yet.  I'll post an updated outlook in a couple of days should the forecast change on us.

Bob

APPLE CREEK ROAD TODAY

Today served as a classic example of how cruel Apple Creek Road can be with less than an inch of snow on the road....and why it is such a big deal.  This morning for example, if you were one of the first three drivers down, you probably had little to no issue.  If you came up, you had no issue.  But pity those that came down later following the tangle of glazed tracks earlier this morning and hit nasty ice, finding their way into a ditch.  Came upon two ditched trucks heading downhill near the red roof house just below the blue roof  house as I was heading down.  Stopped with my outer wheels in the leaves on the right, and luckily had a bag of salt in the car and treated that nasty patch.  On the prior post, a resident posted about the big trouble they had at the lower hairpin.  It was exceedingly dangerous at that point in time, where you could stand in the track and start sliding without moving a muscle.

Point being...you NEVER know what you might experience (or not) when driving in wintry conditions here.  As of 2pm (and earlier, I'd guess) the road is clear and basically dry up to Staymon.  A stark contrast to only a few hours earlier.  Too, it is best to be altruistic and try to help others in trouble if and when possible.  This morning, one such individual that I'm sure does not live up here was extremely rude when I was salting the icy patch around the trucks, impatient to get down and for me to move out of the way. As I said earlier, you never know what you might experience on Apple Creek Road in wintry conditions...

Now we enjoy warming weather, sunny skies, with rain by the middle of next week.  The GFS model hints at another NW flow snow for next Friday, but I'll address that if needed closer to that time.  Be safe, y'all.


Bob

FRIDAY A.M. UPDATE

Flurries will continue to taper off this morning, but it's a cold one - 23 degrees as I type at 4:30am.  It snowed hard 1130p-1215a, and I have about an inch of new snow.  I was happy to see so much snow here blown away, sublimated, etc. when I got home Thursday afternoon...so the inch of snow I've measured this morning is the new snow from overnight.

Apple Creek Road was in perfect shape yesterday, and even though portions are most likely snow covered this morning, I'm guessing the grip is rather good as long as you drive under control.  Feel free to add your report in the comments section below.

Sun comes back out today eventually, but it will be a cold day on the mountain.  Warmer but still chilly Saturday...and then we enjoy a warm up of sorts through the middle of next week.

March 1 should be a "lamb": a mild-ish day near 60 degrees, with a limited rain chance.  Colder air comes in the latter part of next week, with more rain...and as I say every year, March Madness isn't just about basketball.  It's also a period of notoriously heavy snows in western NC.  For now, we'll take this little peanut episode.


Bob

THURSDAY 5:30am UPDATE

Wind has swept some of my snow accumulation away, but still have about 1/2".  BIGGEST CONCERN was my driveway, which was solid ice.  Just treated with salt as I have to get out soon, but admittedly I'm concerned about what I'll find on Apple Creek Road. 

6:40am update: I chose 4WD High and had no problems. I did stop at the upper hairpin (for you newcomers a lot of us refer to it as The Big Curve) and it was very slick in most areas.  But that wasn't the case at the lower hairpin. Dick Fields is just below the lower turn and he had 31.5 degrees and no ice on his driveway or on the road. And it could be that through daybreak temps and duration may hit that sudden flashpoint where liquid goes to ice at the snap of a finger, so be careful. 

Off-on snow showers will continue today, and may have a bit stronger push later this afternoon.  As long as the wind keeps up, it will keep accumulations well below the forecast...the down side is the problem areas will be colder than forecast, as well.

All that to say use your best judgment and caution, and welcome what improvements come our way Friday.


Bob

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY

ACA is under a Winter Weather Advisory from 12am tonight through 7am Friday (31 hours).  The advisory is for 2-4", and per the National Weather Service they are calling 1-2" in the valleys (storm total, not what necessarily will be on the ground Thursday morning).  It will be a wet snow and should be icy on road surfaces once the temps drop and hang below freezing a while.

Onset is tonight closer to midnight for the steadier snow, with intermittent snow showers Thursday and another 'likely' round toward supper. Rain may mix in early, and then again on Thursday, but there is very cold air aloft to support snow.  Temperatures may go above freezing Thursday, especially lower elevations, but windy conditions will have it feeling much colder and secondary roads are expected to stay dicey.  Friday afternoon the ever-increasingly higher sun angle will help us out a little, but highs will still be below average in the lower 40s, if you're lucky. Windy conditions will continue through this period, as well, which could help limit accumulations some.

NAM continues to stick with 2-4" in a most steady fashion, with the GFS now bumping up to 2" for ACA.  Not a dumping, but a solid road 'nuisance' for those of us that have to travel.  This will be a "NW flow" event, and those can be like 'duck, duck, GOOSE' and out of nowhere lay down 1/2" quickly.  2-4" up high and the 1-2" down low seems reasonable here.

This is not to discount today's blustery weather with a High Wind Warning until 1pm for elevations above 3500'...however, ACA is protected by the ridge behind/south of us with our N/NE exposure.  As I type I can hear it howling up there, but I have little wind at the house.  Gusty winds will continue all day today, and even through a lot of Thursday.  Trees can more easily come down with the super-saturated soils, so heads up traveling.

The one good thing about later season storms like this is they don't hang around too long.  After a still-chilly Saturday, we'll warm back to the 50s in a few days as we get ready to usher in March.  Now, will it be 'lion' or 'lamb'.....


Bob

WILD WEATHER MIX COMING UP

Suffice it to say we're not hurting for rain on the mountain.  After a lull for a lot of today, a vigorous storm system heads our way later tonight with a lot of heavy rainfall and potentially damaging wind gusts through Wednesday (in the sense the ground is super-saturated and trees can more easily topple). Today that low is winding up through the LA bayous, undoubtedly kicking up tornadoes in the Deep South today and tonight.  The chance for anything 'severe' here in the mountains early Wednesday will be tempered by our cool, stable air in place.

But I'm really not posting this to cover the rain and storms...it's the wintry backside that so far has garnered little attention.  Methinks it needs it.  Temperature modeling has trended colder and colder for Thursday and Friday, and in ACA we'll have a chance for accumulating wet snow starting near 12am Thursday.  I would anticipate a Winter Weather Advisory to be posted by Wednesday, calling for 1-2" of snow.

At first, it will be a solid mix of rain and snow, not unlike last week's supper-time snow that quickly tallied 1" of heavy wet snow.  Same type of thing coming up Wednesday night into Thursday morning.  Chances for snow showers continue intermittently Thursday into Thursday night before clearing out.  Between my GFS and NAM models, the NAM has consistently pushed for 2-4", while the GFS has consistently pushed for just 1".

All that to say we may have some slippery roads in ACA Thursday, and with highs only in the 30s Thursday and Friday, melting will be oh so slow to take place.

I'll update this post tomorrow, more than likely...just a head's up for now.


Bob

ALL CLEARS TODAY

Drove down early this morning on snow-covered roads until...you guessed it...the blue roof house (classic western NC 3500' level for p-type change).  Oh, a couple of patches down from there, but I ended up with 1" of very wet, heavy snow that had a wet slick bottom  as opposed to ice (3800').  However, some places were dropping to 31 degrees as I left at 6:40am, so be wary of the tire tracks already made as they could be at the icy turning point.  I didn't slip any coming down, and the good news is we are entering into a warming trend, and all should improve as the day wears on.


Bob

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT

6pm 2-16-16

Got home a tad after 4pm and the wet snow was already falling, and heavy at times.  My temp at the end of Staymon is still 39 degrees, but this bowling ball of moisture has been heading at us all day.  The wet snow is indicative of the conditions aloft, which warrant the Winter Weather Advisory for 1"-3" of snow above 3500' elevation.  In this case, there will be some, but less, in the valleys....that will be a more temperature dependent situation.  Whatever accumulates should improve pretty quickly Wednesday as temps are forecast to go well above freezing after a low around 30 (at least higher up).  

FYI, my favored models are going 1-2", which are in line with the advisory.  In a way, this is a nuisance system, soon enough gone, but some of us have to face its consequences early in the morning getting down.

Slush is just as slick as ice, so use caution, even if temps aren't down to 32.  This morning, there was a 'flash point' of sorts around 6am, just as I was leaving the mountain, where the moisture on the road and my steps was just turning quickly to ice as it dropped to 32, and I slid a good bit.  Ice is the Great Equalizer, so respect it.  And as the ol' saying goes, "This, too, shall pass."


Bob