Suffice it to say we're not hurting for rain on the mountain. After a lull for a lot of today, a vigorous storm system heads our way later tonight with a lot of heavy rainfall and potentially damaging wind gusts through Wednesday (in the sense the ground is super-saturated and trees can more easily topple). Today that low is winding up through the LA bayous, undoubtedly kicking up tornadoes in the Deep South today and tonight. The chance for anything 'severe' here in the mountains early Wednesday will be tempered by our cool, stable air in place.
But I'm really not posting this to cover the rain and storms...it's the wintry backside that so far has garnered little attention. Methinks it needs it. Temperature modeling has trended colder and colder for Thursday and Friday, and in ACA we'll have a chance for accumulating wet snow starting near 12am Thursday. I would anticipate a Winter Weather Advisory to be posted by Wednesday, calling for 1-2" of snow.
At first, it will be a solid mix of rain and snow, not unlike last week's supper-time snow that quickly tallied 1" of heavy wet snow. Same type of thing coming up Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Chances for snow showers continue intermittently Thursday into Thursday night before clearing out. Between my GFS and NAM models, the NAM has consistently pushed for 2-4", while the GFS has consistently pushed for just 1".
All that to say we may have some slippery roads in ACA Thursday, and with highs only in the 30s Thursday and Friday, melting will be oh so slow to take place.
I'll update this post tomorrow, more than likely...just a head's up for now.
Bob
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