Many days ago this system was appearing as a 2"-5"event. At times, the model runs went much heavier...but I have to admit (and this is a good thing), just about every model run the past 24 hours is confirming that the incoming low pressure is coming in almost on top of us, which means warmer temps, a lot of rain, and minimal snow/ice accumulations. The 2"-5" actually looks overdone, pointing us in the 1-2" range. There will be more snow along the TN border, but nothing has indicated to me our amounts will be anything more than the low end. The model is accounting only for snow, but doesn't show sleet or ice accumulations, however.
Be that as it may, ACA is officialy under a Winter Storm Watch, which will most likely swith over to a Warning later today (or an Advisory if it looks that minimal). It runs from 7p Sunday through 7p Monday, calling for 2"-4" of snow and up to 0.10" of ice.
In a nutshell, even with our arctic temps Saturday and this morning, the parent "high" in the NE won't sit still. If it did, the low would be forced south, continued cold air would pour in from the NE, and we'd be looking at a lot of snow, like a foot or more....only one model has favored that, the GEM (Canadian). All the other models I look at have taken snow away run after run after run as the high moves out into the Atlantic off the Canadian coastline.
The forecast complications continue. The incoming precipitation late today/overnight should be snow. During Monday, and certainly by afternoon, it should have transitioned through sleet and freezing rain to rain, with rain remaining through the rest of the day and most of the night. Some wrap-around colder air from the NE may transition things back to a wintry mix as we head into Tuesday morning.
Whatever accumulations we get, the rain should knock it back down in a big way. The only fly in the ointment would be a sustained period of sleet/freezing rain which would cap any snow, slowing down the rain's effect.
Insofar as impacts, this is all really good news, adding to this that once this system leaves, we get in a warming trend quickly. But ice is the great equalizer, should it come into play, and that would be the biggest concern for travel. This scenario could save our HOA some $$, as well...we'll just have to see what dregs are left over after our mish-mash of precipitation types, and how much removal the rain helped with.
More than likely, I'll just make a new post later today if I get updated (read 'different') information. If I don't post an update, then this will stand for my take.
Bob
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