WEATHER AND BEARS (YEP...)

Molly is my "Sheriff", a Border-Aussie rescue from Sarge's.  She wants to herd everyone and every animal she meets, and she is quite vocal if she spots activity in the woods.  Last week, on a couple of nights, she started barking like crazy several times in the middle of the night, lying by the back door and fixated on something she saw or heard.  I would look outside into the woods but I never could see anything.  Then, just two days ago, I was talking with a store clerk who lives on the Maggie side of our mountain, and he told me about a bear that came on his deck just the night before....so now it makes sense: some bears are starting to move and look for food, and as we all know, they course our mountain rather regularly.  Just a heads up, especially for those like myself that keep bird feeders out.  

Spring on our mountain, especially through April, explodes with a profusion of wildflowers.  I'm sure many of us are ready and looking forward to it.  Models had shown some possible wintry mix to move through Thursday night, but for the past few days, many outlets were minimizing it.  Imagine my surprise to dig into my favored model outputs late Sunday and see 2"-3" coming out of the one model that has nailed just about every wintry forecast this season (GFS).  It has held this way for 4 consecutive runs, too.  The NAM 'sees' only 3.5 days out, and is only just now touching on that possibility, but it has already gone up to 1" just in the past run.  The best-guess time-frame is 11p Thursday through daybreak Friday.

I know a good many of us would prefer to not deal with wintry conditions again...but it has certainly piqued my interest that the model is showing something that is not being talked about yet.  I'll post an updated outlook in a couple of days should the forecast change on us.

Bob

APPLE CREEK ROAD TODAY

Today served as a classic example of how cruel Apple Creek Road can be with less than an inch of snow on the road....and why it is such a big deal.  This morning for example, if you were one of the first three drivers down, you probably had little to no issue.  If you came up, you had no issue.  But pity those that came down later following the tangle of glazed tracks earlier this morning and hit nasty ice, finding their way into a ditch.  Came upon two ditched trucks heading downhill near the red roof house just below the blue roof  house as I was heading down.  Stopped with my outer wheels in the leaves on the right, and luckily had a bag of salt in the car and treated that nasty patch.  On the prior post, a resident posted about the big trouble they had at the lower hairpin.  It was exceedingly dangerous at that point in time, where you could stand in the track and start sliding without moving a muscle.

Point being...you NEVER know what you might experience (or not) when driving in wintry conditions here.  As of 2pm (and earlier, I'd guess) the road is clear and basically dry up to Staymon.  A stark contrast to only a few hours earlier.  Too, it is best to be altruistic and try to help others in trouble if and when possible.  This morning, one such individual that I'm sure does not live up here was extremely rude when I was salting the icy patch around the trucks, impatient to get down and for me to move out of the way. As I said earlier, you never know what you might experience on Apple Creek Road in wintry conditions...

Now we enjoy warming weather, sunny skies, with rain by the middle of next week.  The GFS model hints at another NW flow snow for next Friday, but I'll address that if needed closer to that time.  Be safe, y'all.


Bob

FRIDAY A.M. UPDATE

Flurries will continue to taper off this morning, but it's a cold one - 23 degrees as I type at 4:30am.  It snowed hard 1130p-1215a, and I have about an inch of new snow.  I was happy to see so much snow here blown away, sublimated, etc. when I got home Thursday afternoon...so the inch of snow I've measured this morning is the new snow from overnight.

Apple Creek Road was in perfect shape yesterday, and even though portions are most likely snow covered this morning, I'm guessing the grip is rather good as long as you drive under control.  Feel free to add your report in the comments section below.

Sun comes back out today eventually, but it will be a cold day on the mountain.  Warmer but still chilly Saturday...and then we enjoy a warm up of sorts through the middle of next week.

March 1 should be a "lamb": a mild-ish day near 60 degrees, with a limited rain chance.  Colder air comes in the latter part of next week, with more rain...and as I say every year, March Madness isn't just about basketball.  It's also a period of notoriously heavy snows in western NC.  For now, we'll take this little peanut episode.


Bob

THURSDAY 5:30am UPDATE

Wind has swept some of my snow accumulation away, but still have about 1/2".  BIGGEST CONCERN was my driveway, which was solid ice.  Just treated with salt as I have to get out soon, but admittedly I'm concerned about what I'll find on Apple Creek Road. 

6:40am update: I chose 4WD High and had no problems. I did stop at the upper hairpin (for you newcomers a lot of us refer to it as The Big Curve) and it was very slick in most areas.  But that wasn't the case at the lower hairpin. Dick Fields is just below the lower turn and he had 31.5 degrees and no ice on his driveway or on the road. And it could be that through daybreak temps and duration may hit that sudden flashpoint where liquid goes to ice at the snap of a finger, so be careful. 

Off-on snow showers will continue today, and may have a bit stronger push later this afternoon.  As long as the wind keeps up, it will keep accumulations well below the forecast...the down side is the problem areas will be colder than forecast, as well.

All that to say use your best judgment and caution, and welcome what improvements come our way Friday.


Bob

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY

ACA is under a Winter Weather Advisory from 12am tonight through 7am Friday (31 hours).  The advisory is for 2-4", and per the National Weather Service they are calling 1-2" in the valleys (storm total, not what necessarily will be on the ground Thursday morning).  It will be a wet snow and should be icy on road surfaces once the temps drop and hang below freezing a while.

Onset is tonight closer to midnight for the steadier snow, with intermittent snow showers Thursday and another 'likely' round toward supper. Rain may mix in early, and then again on Thursday, but there is very cold air aloft to support snow.  Temperatures may go above freezing Thursday, especially lower elevations, but windy conditions will have it feeling much colder and secondary roads are expected to stay dicey.  Friday afternoon the ever-increasingly higher sun angle will help us out a little, but highs will still be below average in the lower 40s, if you're lucky. Windy conditions will continue through this period, as well, which could help limit accumulations some.

NAM continues to stick with 2-4" in a most steady fashion, with the GFS now bumping up to 2" for ACA.  Not a dumping, but a solid road 'nuisance' for those of us that have to travel.  This will be a "NW flow" event, and those can be like 'duck, duck, GOOSE' and out of nowhere lay down 1/2" quickly.  2-4" up high and the 1-2" down low seems reasonable here.

This is not to discount today's blustery weather with a High Wind Warning until 1pm for elevations above 3500'...however, ACA is protected by the ridge behind/south of us with our N/NE exposure.  As I type I can hear it howling up there, but I have little wind at the house.  Gusty winds will continue all day today, and even through a lot of Thursday.  Trees can more easily come down with the super-saturated soils, so heads up traveling.

The one good thing about later season storms like this is they don't hang around too long.  After a still-chilly Saturday, we'll warm back to the 50s in a few days as we get ready to usher in March.  Now, will it be 'lion' or 'lamb'.....


Bob

WILD WEATHER MIX COMING UP

Suffice it to say we're not hurting for rain on the mountain.  After a lull for a lot of today, a vigorous storm system heads our way later tonight with a lot of heavy rainfall and potentially damaging wind gusts through Wednesday (in the sense the ground is super-saturated and trees can more easily topple). Today that low is winding up through the LA bayous, undoubtedly kicking up tornadoes in the Deep South today and tonight.  The chance for anything 'severe' here in the mountains early Wednesday will be tempered by our cool, stable air in place.

But I'm really not posting this to cover the rain and storms...it's the wintry backside that so far has garnered little attention.  Methinks it needs it.  Temperature modeling has trended colder and colder for Thursday and Friday, and in ACA we'll have a chance for accumulating wet snow starting near 12am Thursday.  I would anticipate a Winter Weather Advisory to be posted by Wednesday, calling for 1-2" of snow.

At first, it will be a solid mix of rain and snow, not unlike last week's supper-time snow that quickly tallied 1" of heavy wet snow.  Same type of thing coming up Wednesday night into Thursday morning.  Chances for snow showers continue intermittently Thursday into Thursday night before clearing out.  Between my GFS and NAM models, the NAM has consistently pushed for 2-4", while the GFS has consistently pushed for just 1".

All that to say we may have some slippery roads in ACA Thursday, and with highs only in the 30s Thursday and Friday, melting will be oh so slow to take place.

I'll update this post tomorrow, more than likely...just a head's up for now.


Bob

ALL CLEARS TODAY

Drove down early this morning on snow-covered roads until...you guessed it...the blue roof house (classic western NC 3500' level for p-type change).  Oh, a couple of patches down from there, but I ended up with 1" of very wet, heavy snow that had a wet slick bottom  as opposed to ice (3800').  However, some places were dropping to 31 degrees as I left at 6:40am, so be wary of the tire tracks already made as they could be at the icy turning point.  I didn't slip any coming down, and the good news is we are entering into a warming trend, and all should improve as the day wears on.


Bob

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT

6pm 2-16-16

Got home a tad after 4pm and the wet snow was already falling, and heavy at times.  My temp at the end of Staymon is still 39 degrees, but this bowling ball of moisture has been heading at us all day.  The wet snow is indicative of the conditions aloft, which warrant the Winter Weather Advisory for 1"-3" of snow above 3500' elevation.  In this case, there will be some, but less, in the valleys....that will be a more temperature dependent situation.  Whatever accumulates should improve pretty quickly Wednesday as temps are forecast to go well above freezing after a low around 30 (at least higher up).  

FYI, my favored models are going 1-2", which are in line with the advisory.  In a way, this is a nuisance system, soon enough gone, but some of us have to face its consequences early in the morning getting down.

Slush is just as slick as ice, so use caution, even if temps aren't down to 32.  This morning, there was a 'flash point' of sorts around 6am, just as I was leaving the mountain, where the moisture on the road and my steps was just turning quickly to ice as it dropped to 32, and I slid a good bit.  Ice is the Great Equalizer, so respect it.  And as the ol' saying goes, "This, too, shall pass."


Bob

YOU KNOW WHAT THEY SAY...

...It's hard to accumulate any type of precipitation if there is none!  Holy smokes, the clockwise flow around that NE high continues to push the big moisture bands west and north of us as Monday gets under way.  Only the lightest of flurries have fallen at all...when I left home at 545a, it was up to 34 degrees on my deck, but 27 in Clyde.

The radar is pretty slim for ACA, though I see some potential periods coming up this morning for some light activity.

And that would be my concern for the AM hours: the valleys, where the heavier colder air is.  Hard stuff to scour out as the warm nose nudges in from the SW today.  Sleet/freezing rain is now the concern as opposed to snow.  For our mountain, I can't foresee any issues whatsoever, which is great news for all involved.

Eventually, rain does get in here, especially overnight.  After some clearing Tuesday, there will be a small clipper coming in at night that could drop 1/2" of snow, but the trend this week and through the weekend are milder temperatures incoming.


Bob

UPCOMING WINTRY EVENT

Many days ago this system was appearing as a 2"-5"event.  At times, the model runs went much heavier...but I have to admit (and this is a good thing), just about every model run the past 24 hours is confirming that the incoming low pressure is coming in almost on top of us, which means warmer temps, a lot of rain, and minimal snow/ice accumulations.  The 2"-5" actually looks overdone, pointing us in the 1-2" range.  There will be more snow along the TN border, but nothing has indicated to me our amounts will be anything more than the low end.  The model is accounting only for snow, but doesn't show sleet or ice accumulations, however.

Be that as it may, ACA is officialy under a Winter Storm Watch, which will most likely swith over to a Warning later today (or an Advisory if it looks that minimal).  It runs from 7p Sunday through 7p Monday, calling for 2"-4" of snow and up to 0.10" of ice.

In a nutshell, even with our arctic temps Saturday and this morning, the parent "high" in the NE won't sit still.  If it did, the low would be forced south, continued cold air would pour in from the NE,  and we'd be looking at a lot of snow, like a foot or more....only one model has favored that, the GEM (Canadian).  All the other models I look at have taken snow away run after run after run as the high moves out into the Atlantic off the Canadian coastline.

The forecast complications continue.  The incoming precipitation late today/overnight should be snow. During Monday, and certainly by afternoon, it should have transitioned through sleet and freezing rain to rain, with rain remaining through the rest of the day and most of the night.  Some wrap-around colder air from the NE may transition things back to a wintry mix as we head into Tuesday morning.

Whatever accumulations we get, the rain should knock it back down in a big way.  The only fly in the ointment would be a sustained period of sleet/freezing rain which would cap any snow, slowing down the rain's effect.

Insofar as impacts, this is all really good news, adding to this that once this system leaves, we get in a warming trend quickly.  But ice is the great equalizer, should it come into play, and that would be the biggest concern for travel.  This scenario could save our HOA some $$, as well...we'll just have to see what dregs are left over after our mish-mash of precipitation types, and how much removal the rain helped with.

More than likely, I'll just make a new post later today if I get updated (read 'different') information. If I don't post an update, then this will stand for my take.


Bob

THURSDAY A.M. UPDATE

Just my road report from my trip down this morning....

Left around 4:40am from the end of Staymon....you don't want to carry too much downhill speed on the snow-covered side roads...and got to a relatively snow-free Apple Creek Road at that point.  Stayed clean past the mirror curve, but by the time I got to the #867 cabin just beyond (welcome, new owners!), the road becomes snow-ice covered. This is the notorious shaded portion that stays this way a lot. I had good grip in 4WD high and never felt it slip.  Snap your finger at the blue roof house, as you leave the white road and hit bare, safe asphalt all the way down to the entrance.

Did see some tell-tale tracks where I'm guessing 2WD cars headed uphill and lost traction, but didn't see anyone in the ditches or bailed out on the side.

Some of us will get a bit above 32 degrees today, and certainly tomorrow afternoon, but back in the freezer we go Saturday.

Snow - Friday/Friday night there is a slight chance for light snow/flurries, possibly up to 1/2" (models saying 0-1"), but I see no travel issues from it in ACA with the residual salt that will still be on the road.  

The bigger snow possibility still looms for Monday, possibly starting overnight Sunday and lasting into Tuesday morning.  GFS model last night seeing the edge of it with 3-4" for ACA, but the overnight run is now going 8-10".  My initial call was for 2-5", but in western NC...somewhere...this storm could lay down 12-18".  I have a feeling I'll be adjusting upwards.  

Once again, we'll go into an event with already cold ground temperatures which will mean quick coverage after onset.  Will update with more info later on this weekend, most likely Saturday afternoon.


Bob

WEDNESDAY ROAD UPDATE

The salt is doing its thing on Apple Creek Road.  While I can only speak of it from Staymon Road to the bottom, I encountered no slippage while taking it easy.  Towards the bottom, lots of bare if not wet (not icy) asphalt, and higher up where it is still mostly snow covered, there is a texture to the snow and it's evident the salt is working underneath from the light snow we got overnight. I found I had good grip. Side roads weren't plowed, but it was a piece of non-slippery cake for me on Staymon in 4WD...I ended up with 5-6" of snow there, though wind and such has it down to 3-4" on the road.

The system Monday is a 'heads up'...it will be another "NW flow event" like this one, and just guestimating I'm seeing something in the 2-5" range.  Purely speculation on my part, nothing empirical, just what the models are showing (and they are roughly agreeing) and my gut feeling.  Probably won't mention any more on that until Saturday or so when there is more clarity.

Be safe and be well, y'all.

Bob                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

WEDNESDAY A.M. UPDATE

Salt from the plowing late yesterday apparently has improved the road a good bit.  Talked with Chris Martin who watched two trucks go down at regular speed with no tires slipping.  I will be heading out in about two hours and can report thereafter.  If anyone has anything to add to observations, etc., please add them in the comments section.

I had a low of 8 degrees this morning...while a rogue wrap-around band of snow is possible, it's not likely here.  A skiff may come in late Friday, and another lightly accumulating snow for Monday...I'll post more on that in a few days.


Bob

APPLE CREEK ROAD IS VERY DANGEROUS

Retyping from the earlier post, clarifying what I found on the mountain.  Apple Creek Road has been plowed and salted, although temps are getting too cold for the salt to do much good.  

THE SERIOUS PART: From the entrance up past Chris Martin (#211) all the way to the next curve to the left, it is exceedingly icy.  In order to back down to Chris's driveway safely, we laid a good bit of salt out....consider that a landing pad of sorts if you are heading up.  Keep your speed up or you may not make it to that turn.

Coming DOWN from that curve...well, that is probably the most dangerous part of all.  Once you lose traction, it's a free-for-all.  I can't say in all good conscience that anyone should attempt it.  Up, maybe, down, no.

Above that turn, I had no issues all the way up to Staymon and home.  Which is where I don't plan on leaving anytime soon.  :-)

I'll start a new post for Wednesday morning when I hear about 'things'.


Bob

TUESDAY 1PM UPDATE

Not sure the comments section is working as a couple of us have written, sent, but nothing shows up...but here is the latest from Owen Fulghum per road treatments ahead:
_________________________

UPDATE: 1:00pm Tuesday - We have contacted Mike Clampitt to clear and salt Apple Creek Rd. He will come later this afternoon or tomorrow morning (Wednesday) after the snowfall is finished. We know the gravel roads are also slippery, but the wind gusts seem to have thinned the snow such that scraping would likely do more damage than good. If this is not the case with your gravel road, let me know. Just in case you didn't know, salting a gravel road will turn the underlying hard-pack into mush and ruin the road bed. Please be very careful out there - whether on feet or four wheels.

Sincerely,

Owen Fulghum (President, ACAHA)

________________________

I recently drove down from the end of Staymon...after some more heavy snow bands I had close to 4" of very fluffy snow.  Swept cleanly off the deck, but a tad more sticky on my driveway.  Salt cured that after I plowed it.  While Apple Creek Road is heavily snow-covered up high, I had zero issues in 4WD.  Closer to the bottom, there is less snow and the road seemed more slippery to me.

I'd much rather drive in 4" of snow than in 1/2" of snow, and I'd much rather go uphill in it than downhill.  Use caution if you must head out...and watch out for snowboarders! (Just a tongue in cheek thing...an enterprising soul carved down the mountain on one)


Bob

TUESDAY A.M. UPDATE

(CLICK TO ENLARGE)

BOOMER GETTING READY TO CHOW ON PEANUTS

Just measured 2.2" here at the end of Staymon as a heavy snow band passed through.  NW flow events are tricky buggers....you can have blue sky and then get a snow shower that lays down a quick 1/2" or more, which I'm getting as I type.  This off and on pattern will continue all day, and through Wednesday, though the chances are lower.

I've not yet been out on the roads, but there is no icy belly to this fluffy stuff.  It sweeps right off the steps and deck and driveway to bare material.  However, it makes no sense treat our roads until this event is clearly wrapping up, so please use extreme caution if you must head out.  Once I'm down and settled at school I'll post any concerns I had here, but it may take a while.

If I'm lucky I might see 32 degrees Thursday afternoon here at the end of Staymon.  What limited snow fell and will fall is going nowhere soon.

Stay tuned.

Bob

WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT

Just updating this morning with the official NWS stance that ACA is under a Winter Storm Warning through Tuesday morning, and a Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Gusty winds will accompany this event, as well, with crashing temps tonight. What falls the next few days will be staying around given the arctic air incoming.  Our roads will be and stay dangerously slick for several days.

3:15pm update:  Been an odd day...some in sun, and some with light icy snow covered roads not too far away from ACA.  Very patchy precipitation.  Some have had heavy snow bursts, others not so much.  ACA is in fine shape so far with nary a thing to see.  35 degrees on my deck.  The radar reflections have been moving in from the W and even a little SW, which is NOT conducive to accumulations just yet.  However, cold temps and more moisture moves in tonight, so at some point we lose the luxury of clear roads.

My favored snow models for the next 3 days still hold ACA in the 2"-3" range, with 4"-6" within 5-8 miles of here (N and NW).  The Warning is calling for 2-5" of snow, with 6" or more in the higher elevations near the TN border (Smokies, Max Patch, Mitchell, Balsams, etc.).  A tabular forecast I like still has "likely" snow arriving close to noon, so I'm still figuring on an early dismissal from schools today, as well.

I see several vehicles are already staged down low.  Good idea. I may not be back on the mountain until late this afternoon, so please put any ACA info or observations you have in the comments section...and thanks in advance.  :-)

Bob

SNOW DEVELOPS MONDAY

2-6-16 sunrise - click to enlarge

Had to laugh and chide myself at the same time Saturday morning...the short-lived morning glow was shaping up just before sunrise, so I grabbed my camera and went out on the deck...only to get a "battery exhausted" message before I could get one shot.  Luckily, my Galaxy S5 phone takes a great picture on its own!

I've been watching this incoming system for about a week and a half in the models and all along for Haywood County it has looked like a 1"-4" event from a NW flow pattern.  2"-3" for ACA seems reasonable. It will be heavier the closer you get to the TN border, but the models have yet to push those amounts into ACA's range.

At the moment, the better chances of the first wave of stronger snow bands look to arrive around noon-ish Monday, and I would expect deteriorating road conditions in ACA quickly thereafter. The snow showers will be continuing off and on through Tuesday.

So, the good news is this is a limited event in terms of amounts.  The not so good news is there is some bitterly cold temperatures coming in after it, so we won't get that warming and melting we had immediately after the last dumping.

I'll update later when any other information comes in.

Bob