BOGART IS OUT AND ABOUT :-)

NO, THIS ISN'T BOGART. THIS IS A TEASE SHOT...AS APRIL UNFOLDS, OUR MOUNTAIN WILL EXPLODE WITH A GORGEOUS WILDFLOWER DISPLAY THAT IS ALWAYS EXEMPLARY!

We have had a nice influx of new residents here, so you may be reading this type of information for the first time. Welcome, y'all! It's no surprise to the rest of us, of course...bears are part and parcel of life here in ACA.  I've called this particular bear Bogart in honor of the Waynesville restaurant flooded with carved bears.  

Best I can tell this is the same one I had last year, and I'm guessing it's now 3 years old.  Its color was a bit washed in the face and body last year, but I have to say it's a very handsome bear now, good and black with the clear brown marks on the head area. It's just not very big as adult bears go.  I didn't have the camera ready when he came to and on the deck I don't know how many times from 1-3am, but I got my army of bird feeders in before there was an issue.  Bogart did not like the chorus of Maisy and Molly barking their fool heads off on the other side of a glass door just three feet from the  golden path to the bird feeder area. 

And so the word to all to bring feeders in at night and don't leave garbage and food scraps available to our visitor.  It's in its best interest to eat as nature intended and maybe it will move on...or not.  There's a big chunk of real estate east of my house all the way to Hall Top that I imagine was its den area this winter.  And who knows, it won't be unusual to have other bruins cruise through from time to time.

As an aside, I have made a tweak to this blog so it should be easily viewed on mobile devices.  Sorry for that delay.

Bob

TUESDAY P.M. UPDATE

Well, I've picked up around 3" of new snow today here at the end of Staymon, albeit with whippy winds at times and some melting earlier.  Apple Creek Road has been in perfect shape from even early this morning; however, the temp is now down to 27 degrees just before 6pm and it's only downhill from here.  

The NW flow snow showers will continue intermittently through the night and possibly well into Wednesday.  The Winter Weather Advisory for Haywood County is through 8am, but I'm seeing a massive upstream moisture flow that will not go anywhere quickly as the parent low pummeling the northeast is starting to recurve slightly NW.

It's possible to pick up another 1-3" overnight.  Driving up this afternoon, the snow was relatively absent below the blue roof house (relatively, I say).  Accumulations will continue to be higher in the upper elevations above 3500'.  What had been a non-icy Apple Creek Road can easily become more icy as time wears on, so a big concern for travel in the morning as well as school schedule concerns.

Bitter cold is incoming, so what falls sticks and stays.  We'll ever so slowly start warming up by Friday, but until then the bitter cold will reign.  Gusty winds increase our danger for power outages, as well, so prepare for that for the next 24-36 hours.

Wheeeee.  Way to go, Punxsutawney Phil....


Bob

TUESDAY A.M. UPDATE

As I write I've got about 1.5" of wet snow with the temperature hovering around the freezing mark. Even though I salted my driveway last evening, it's snow covered, but temps haven't been cold enough to freeze the slush (yet).  Slush is perfectly slippery, but I'm not anticipating any trouble getting down (cautiously) in AWD.  Highs will go above freezing (even if just a little), so we should have some road clearing later today.  Problems come in tonight if not enough melting takes place on Apple Creek Road.

Bands of intermittent snow showers will continue today...radars don't look impressive this morning, but a lot of the bands are under the radar beam and not readily visible.  Light accumulations are possible if the bands are heavy enough.

Bitter cold moves in tonight and locks in for a couple of days.  Tender vegetation will take a nasty hit. Any snowy or icy areas will stay put, hence the heads up if roads don't clear adequately today.


Bob

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY

Looks like the colder air is coming in colder and a little sooner for this next event tonight through Wednesday morning.  Precipitation should start late today/tonight as a rain then wintry mix before going to snow before sunrise Tuesday. If the rain component doesn't develop, then just a bit more snow will total. Off and on snow showers may fall through Tuesday and Tuesday night, tapering off early Wednesday morning.

The Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 8pm tonight through 8am Wednesday.  Higher elevations could see up to 6", but the winds and wind chills will be truly bone-chilling. Power outages a real possibility. Current NWS totals range 1-3" with a chance for initial sleet and freezing rain (think ice under any snow).

Amounts I see range 1-3" for the event at this time on my models, though those models have been trending slightly heavier.  WLOS just posted their guess for us as 2-3".  Same idea.  It doesn't fall all at once, just some here and there as the bands move through.

The inescapable is the flower killing cold coming in, with Tuesday AM lows in the upper teens, and even a tad colder Wednesday and Thursday morning.  Bad news for our budding and flowering plants, fruit crops, etc.

So, a heads up for Tuesday travel...with such temps, what falls is sticking and going nowhere, and for our new residents in ACA, even a half inch of snow on Apple Creek Road can be a nightmare on the steeper problem sections.  Be careful.


Bob

SUNDAY P.M. UPDATE

Noon today from the end of Staymon (click to enlarge)

Apple Creek Road is in wonderful shape...just be careful early in the morning for icy areas from snow melt crossing the road.  What a great day for snow melting, giving much needed water for the soil horizons.  Zero issues anywhere, except for maybe shaded roads in higher elevations.

On Monday, don't be surprised during the day if you see some rain fall with snow and sleet mixing in.  It should not amount to anything before switching over to a very cold rain for the rest of the day and night.  I'll post later when the Tuesday-Wednesday AM scenario unfolds.


Bob

SUNDAY A.M. UPDATE

Topped out at 4" here at the end of Staymon.  I'm glad the heavier precipitation stayed just south of us, and with the sun out fully now, and highs expected to get well above freezing, we should get some good melting.

10am UPDATE: With our plower out of town, another person will be here shortly to plow and salt.  Give it a little time and the road should be in good shape.

Round #2 begins to arrive Monday with a rain-sleet-snow mix possible before going to rain for us.  The northern mountains will get more snow, but a warm 'nose' aloft should keep us in rain Monday night.  Later on Tuesday, we may see rain showers switch over to a little snow into the night time hours.  At this time, there is no discussion of amounts.  I'll most likely post an update Monday afternoon.


Bob

WINTER STORM WARNING:UPDATE

DON'T FORGET:  Set your clocks forward tonight one hour as Daylight Saving Time begins.

This is going to be a brutal week on budding/flowering plants and trees.  The SC peach crop stands to lose 90% of it's crop later this week with lows here in the upper teens and low 20s possibly in the Upstate.  Nature can be a hellish wench.

(I'm making changes lowering snow amounts...the upstream moisture looks to be pushing even further south, just out of our hair...warning is for 2-4" of snow for all of us, and even that seems doubtful as I write around 4pm.  However, the NWS is still pushing bouts of snow overnight for the accumulations, so just maybe they see something I'm not seeing right now.)

In front of us is incoming snow and cold: 
I'm culling back totals to 2-4" for all, which I am even having my doubts about those.  The upstream moisture field is impressive, but pushing even more south of us toward Franklin. Tonight, temps may be below freezing for about 12 hours. Any snow that does fall will most likely be icy underneath.
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(older data with impressive snow....that seems evasive now)  The Saturday AM runs look similar, so here are the graphics I already saved and marked from last night's model runs for the NAM and GFS.  The nod for a while has gone to the GFS, but for me, seeing the NAM so hot and heavy, I know there is a decent chance this snow may go deeper than forecast.  All that to say truly do get what you may need for a couple of days as the cold will be here to stay this week. (click on graphics to enlarge)

GFS Friday 8pm run

NAM Friday 8pm run

Experimental product from NWS

 While the warning was posted yesterday, the NWS culled it back east and northeast of Asheville and dropped it to an advisory.  The bull's-eye for precipitation has shifted to the Smokies and the Plott Balsams, and ACA is really an end ridge to the Balsams, hence the concern totals could go higher unless the precip continues to shift southward. (I underlined the original posting because this seems to be what is happening...)

Onset has been accelerated to this evening, with the likely times of heavier snow just before midnight and just before sunrise.  All should be done mostly by noon Sunday.

The next hit will be late Monday into Tuesday...what originally looked like another 4" of snow for us is now more a really cold rain that may see sleet and light icing occur intermittently. A "warm nose" may be overhead here in the mountains, stopping the snow event, so for now we may dodge worsening conditions.  More on that as that time nears.

For now, enjoy the calm before the snow, remembering that being a heavier wetter snow will mean increased chances for power outages and downed trees.

Bob

WEEKEND WEATHER: SNOW COMING

Boomer (red squirrel) picking out a peanut

I'll be posting an update Saturday afternoon, but for now...let's just say we knew we were going to pay for all of our unseasonable warmth this winter.  Next week will be one of the coldest in quite a while, and there will be another chance for accumulating snow in the first half of next week.

Before us is a colder day today, ushered in by thunderstorms that rumbled through around 3am today.  Winds will be whippy, too, and a secondary/trailing cold front is on its heels.  More rain will fall late Saturday and overnight, when it changes to a wet, heavy snow.  Those types of snows accumulate quickly, and bring with them increased danger of falling trees and power outages.  The switchover looks to take place in the black early morning hours Sunday, so that we wake up to travel issues.

How many hours we stay below 32 degrees will dictate the extent of road troubles in ACA.  With our warmth, the ground is warm, and with this starting as rain and transitioning to snow, the belly will be wattery.  Slush is very slippery on it's own, but if it stays below 32 long enough, the belly goes to ice and makes a mess of travel.  Sunday afternoon highs are supposed to get above freezing, but with a snow cover that will cut a few degrees off.

A few days ago, temps looked like a heavy wet snow that mostly melts in the afternoon.  But the temp runs have gotten colder and colder, and the snow amounts have been CRAZY in my two favored models.  Last night's 8pm model run showed the NAM pumping 12-14" here and the GFS going 10-12"....a tad reminiscent of the 12/18 18"snow 6 years ago.  The 1am runs backed off to the 4-6" range again where most of the runs have been.  The NAM has been the hotter pushing 6-8".

The problem in this case with accumulations is the amount of falling snow that melts and mixes with rain, which could consume 2-3" of snow....next to impossible for any real accuracy.  The local stations are pushing 2-4" which seems reasonable per the above.  But suffice it to say Sunday morning will be a mess from top to bottom in ACA as accumulating snow should reach the valley floors, as well.  Precip should taper off by noon.

I'm assuming we'll be under a Winter Storm Watch by Saturday, and I'll reassess then.  Too, by then, I should have a better peak to the second chance for snow a day or two later.


Bob