WINTER STORM WARNING:UPDATE

DON'T FORGET:  Set your clocks forward tonight one hour as Daylight Saving Time begins.

This is going to be a brutal week on budding/flowering plants and trees.  The SC peach crop stands to lose 90% of it's crop later this week with lows here in the upper teens and low 20s possibly in the Upstate.  Nature can be a hellish wench.

(I'm making changes lowering snow amounts...the upstream moisture looks to be pushing even further south, just out of our hair...warning is for 2-4" of snow for all of us, and even that seems doubtful as I write around 4pm.  However, the NWS is still pushing bouts of snow overnight for the accumulations, so just maybe they see something I'm not seeing right now.)

In front of us is incoming snow and cold: 
I'm culling back totals to 2-4" for all, which I am even having my doubts about those.  The upstream moisture field is impressive, but pushing even more south of us toward Franklin. Tonight, temps may be below freezing for about 12 hours. Any snow that does fall will most likely be icy underneath.
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(older data with impressive snow....that seems evasive now)  The Saturday AM runs look similar, so here are the graphics I already saved and marked from last night's model runs for the NAM and GFS.  The nod for a while has gone to the GFS, but for me, seeing the NAM so hot and heavy, I know there is a decent chance this snow may go deeper than forecast.  All that to say truly do get what you may need for a couple of days as the cold will be here to stay this week. (click on graphics to enlarge)

GFS Friday 8pm run

NAM Friday 8pm run

Experimental product from NWS

 While the warning was posted yesterday, the NWS culled it back east and northeast of Asheville and dropped it to an advisory.  The bull's-eye for precipitation has shifted to the Smokies and the Plott Balsams, and ACA is really an end ridge to the Balsams, hence the concern totals could go higher unless the precip continues to shift southward. (I underlined the original posting because this seems to be what is happening...)

Onset has been accelerated to this evening, with the likely times of heavier snow just before midnight and just before sunrise.  All should be done mostly by noon Sunday.

The next hit will be late Monday into Tuesday...what originally looked like another 4" of snow for us is now more a really cold rain that may see sleet and light icing occur intermittently. A "warm nose" may be overhead here in the mountains, stopping the snow event, so for now we may dodge worsening conditions.  More on that as that time nears.

For now, enjoy the calm before the snow, remembering that being a heavier wetter snow will mean increased chances for power outages and downed trees.

Bob