WEEKEND WEATHER: SNOW COMING

Boomer (red squirrel) picking out a peanut

I'll be posting an update Saturday afternoon, but for now...let's just say we knew we were going to pay for all of our unseasonable warmth this winter.  Next week will be one of the coldest in quite a while, and there will be another chance for accumulating snow in the first half of next week.

Before us is a colder day today, ushered in by thunderstorms that rumbled through around 3am today.  Winds will be whippy, too, and a secondary/trailing cold front is on its heels.  More rain will fall late Saturday and overnight, when it changes to a wet, heavy snow.  Those types of snows accumulate quickly, and bring with them increased danger of falling trees and power outages.  The switchover looks to take place in the black early morning hours Sunday, so that we wake up to travel issues.

How many hours we stay below 32 degrees will dictate the extent of road troubles in ACA.  With our warmth, the ground is warm, and with this starting as rain and transitioning to snow, the belly will be wattery.  Slush is very slippery on it's own, but if it stays below 32 long enough, the belly goes to ice and makes a mess of travel.  Sunday afternoon highs are supposed to get above freezing, but with a snow cover that will cut a few degrees off.

A few days ago, temps looked like a heavy wet snow that mostly melts in the afternoon.  But the temp runs have gotten colder and colder, and the snow amounts have been CRAZY in my two favored models.  Last night's 8pm model run showed the NAM pumping 12-14" here and the GFS going 10-12"....a tad reminiscent of the 12/18 18"snow 6 years ago.  The 1am runs backed off to the 4-6" range again where most of the runs have been.  The NAM has been the hotter pushing 6-8".

The problem in this case with accumulations is the amount of falling snow that melts and mixes with rain, which could consume 2-3" of snow....next to impossible for any real accuracy.  The local stations are pushing 2-4" which seems reasonable per the above.  But suffice it to say Sunday morning will be a mess from top to bottom in ACA as accumulating snow should reach the valley floors, as well.  Precip should taper off by noon.

I'm assuming we'll be under a Winter Storm Watch by Saturday, and I'll reassess then.  Too, by then, I should have a better peak to the second chance for snow a day or two later.


Bob