NOT GONNA HAPPEN...

It's not often I pull the plug on a weather forecast, but the Advisory's 2-4" is happening only in places N and NE of us in ACA.  We simply won't get it here on the mountain.  The radar returns have slackened significantly upstream, and while we had hours of snow falling, the temps stayed at and above 32 degrees.  Madison County has had over 3" already in some locations, but we are dodging this one in ACA.

Lows are still forecast to be in the 20s, so black ice and slippery patches are quite possible, but the idea of waking and plowing off 3-4" of snow will not come to pass.  Highs will warm a good bit above freezing, so any slickness will dissipate soon enough.

I don't know about you, but that suits me just fine.


Bob

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY: SNOW

After our last dumping, the talk of 2"-4" of snow is more of "I got this."  ACA is under a Winter Weather Advisory (click for text) from noon today through noon Saturday.  The advisory is for elevations above 3500' (upper half of ACA), with lighter accumulations down into the valleys.

Working in our favor are the warm ground temperatures (a very relative term) and all the rain we've been having to knock back remaining snow piles.  However, lows Saturday are forecast to drop into the mid and upper 20s, which if sustained long enough will help create some iciness along with any wet snow.

The 2"-4" in the advisory seem to be spot on.  The odd-model-out NAM has 8" very close by, and the Euro trends to the 4" mark (click on images to enlarge...big dots are ACA):

EURO Model

GFS Model

NAM Model

Travel will be slippery, but Nature should take care of clearing off any road problems with highs above freezing...unless, of course, the doomsday NAM comes to pass and dumps again.  Just a touch of poor sarcasm, there...

And as we head into the big Christmas holiday, no weather woes are expected.  Praise the Lord and pass the potatoes!


Bob

BLACK ICE....AND SNOW?

I was taken aback late Tuesday morning by the black ice still in place on Apple Creek Road as I came down from Staymon Road.  We've had milder afternoon temps, but when you get within inches of the snow pack many of us still have, it's significantly colder.  In driving back up the mountain just before midnight there seemed to be even more icy patches.  All that to say don't let your guard down and speed up....4-wheel drive won't do you a lick of good on ice.

Rain moves in Thursday, with the exiting back side late Friday colder with the possibility of dropping some snow.  The NAM and EURO are pushing 2-3" in the ACA, and the GFS is 1-2".  After our last dumping of frozen stuff, it seems like small potatoes, but something we may well have to reckon with soon enough.

For now, beware the icy patches that will look darker and shine brightly.  I'll be around Friday and will post a snow update toward noon, I'm guessing.  It's a very busy time, and safety needs to be a prime concern.


Bob

TUESDAY 12:45pm UPDATE

It's an understatement that western North Carolina has crippling problems from this storm.  The wetness, heaviness, depth, iciness all has added up to, in many respects, an insurmountable situation for many at this time. My sister is in Tryon, NC and still has no power, going on 72 hours now.

From Keith Patton came some helpful information about what has been happening.  Mauney Cove Road itself wasn't open to travel until 11am Monday.  The previous day another plower tried to come here via Hall Top and said it wasn't worth the risk to do again.  What side roads didn't get plowed yesterday will try to be plowed today, and as I type the rig is at the bottom of Staymon Road.

However, those that did get plowed yesterday may well be encountering a sheet of impassable ice from the melting temperatures yesterday afternoon.  Staymon is in that category, the driver just reported. He was going to attempt the lower portion with chains.

While we have afternoon temps above freezing, we'll be facing the same refreeze story tomorrow morning...and so the story will repeat itself for many of us for at least another day.

For those that have been able to get out and about (not me!), feel free to add any road reports in the comments section.  I'll post any information that comes my way, as well.

SUNDAY 2:45PM UPDATE

Power was restored just before noon today, which I do believe is the longest outage I've had here in 10 years (~11 hours).  Hats go off to all the linemen having to deal with such harsh elements to get electricity flowing again.

Early this AM portions of area interstates and other major roads were closed due to stranded traffic, but it appears the closures have been reopened.  However, travel from Old Fort east on I-40 is a major mess all the way to the Triangle

The plow has been seen on Apple Creek Road this afternoon, but they definitely have their work cut out for them up here.  Thankfully the temperatures will be ideal for the salt to do it's thing to help clear the roads.  Temperatures have nudged above freezing here and will be slow to go back down tonight (if much at all).  I'm also assuming side roads will be plowed tomorrow.

Chris Martin is staying in town for this storm but wanted me to pass along to all Apple Creek residents to feel free to use his driveway to park if you have any trouble getting up the mountain.  His house is the third on the left once you turn into ACA, the one with the giant metal Sasquatch silhouette standing by the detached garage.

The wrap-around snow from the exiting storm will pass through overnight and could lay down another 1-2", but most of that shouldn't adversely impact our roads.  We should get an okay day Monday to deal with the white stuff, but refreeze and black ice will be an issue Tuesday morning. Calm dry weather is expected to end the week.

Snow totals can be found HERE.  Impressive. 


Bob

930am UPDATE

Power still out here at the end of Staymon...plow was supposed to have been here hours ago but trees and power lines are down across Mauney Cove and plow has yet to get here. This storm will require a lot of patience.  :-)

Roughly 12" of snow and sleet...heavy and crusty stuff to deal with. Majority of precipitation is done with, with another light round Monday.

Keeping updates short until power returns.

Bob

OUTAGE, SNOW, PLOWING

12:44 am major power outage.

9.2" snow with heavy sleet @1am.

Assuming plow can even get here, ACA will be plowed sometime Sunday morning and possibly a second time. Will communicate as I can. Roads EXTREMELY dangerous and impassable in some areas.

Bob

SATURDAY A.M.: HERE WE GO....

I wasn't here to update last night, so here are all the 'changes' to Snowmageddon this morning.  :-)

When Haywood County was finally put into a Winter Storm Warning, it was a 'first' for me in all my years in the biz:  "Total snow accumulations of 2 - 18 inches are expected."  Well, if that doesn't cover your butt I don't know what will.  The NWS knows that snow-killing warm nose will be lurking around, but not sure exactly where.  There will be that rapid gradient to heavy snow if not here then close by.  6"-10" for us may be more like 8"-12", but with this early onset we could go higher.

Here are the latest models for ACA...the Canadian and Euro have culled back, but the NAM went crazy two runs ago with 18"-20"...it came back down on the last run:

GFS   8"-12"

CANADIAN  8"-12"

NAM  12"-15"

EURO  12"-16"

The Warning also upped the time frame to 12 noon today to 12 noon Monday. As I type the onset has been earlier as I already have a good dusting with the surface temp holding at 33 degrees.  The NWS likes the odd-man-out-NAM for its timing and handling of the warm nose that may encroach on Haywood County Sunday, turning the snow back in to rain and sleet, maybe some freezing rain, which will take what accumulations there are and start reducing them.

I'll make one last run into town and call it a day...a weekend, rather.  :-)


Bob

 P

SNOW UPDATE

Apple Creek Acres is under a Winter Storm Watch (which will become a Warning later today), starting at 1p Saturday through 12 noon Monday. There have been some rather big changes developing with the GFS, still the favored model for this event: more freezing rain and sleet, and less snow.

The models have been impressive, and as of 7p Thursday they were still heavy on the snow:

GFS:  8-12"

NAM: 12-15"

CANADIAN: 12-16"

EURO: 20-24"

My original thought was 6-10" for us and I'll stick to that. The reason for the reduction in totals for us is a warm nose that is expected to be working its way in from the southwest. The trend for our area is to have more sleet and freezing rain mixing in with the snow, keeping totals at 8" for the high end. The actual Watch calls for up to 0.2" of ice in some areas, which along with accumulating sleet and wet snow spell power outages.  

I still expect pockets of heavier snow, though. There will be a sharp drop-off (or build-up, depending on how you look at it) in accumulations relative to those critical temperatures and where they actually end up when. Buncombe County is now in a Warning in a 10-16" range, so heavy amounts will be close by if not actually here in ACA.

Too, it has been fun, in a way, watching the hot and heavy EURO model which is still pushing all snow and no mixing, but that won't be happening.  Talk about life coming to a halt here if it did...

The heavier amounts look to be east of us, well through the midsection of North Carolina: travel woes will be widespread, to say the least. Here are the various models that will enlarge if you click on them:

GFS 12p MONDAY

CANADIAN 12p MONDAY

EUROPEAN 12p MONDAY

NAM 72 hours

I will update as needed, of course, and I will be on the mountain by early afternoon Saturday.




Bob

WEEKEND SNOW: GET READY...

December storms can be problematic for reasons mentioned in prior posts.  With temperatures close to freezing, it will make for a higher water content storm so where it snows it does so hot and heavy.  On the fringe of the heavy snow will be a pretty rapid tailing off of snow totals as more rain and sleet mix in where the temps are too marginal on the warm side.

I usually compare the GFS with the NAM models...but the NAM sees only 3 days out and it has yet to fully grasp totals by Monday.  Many of my professional weather cohorts favor the EURO model for winter storms in the Southeast, and so I'll present that graphic below.  Beware: it's graphic, alright.

AMOUNTS:  In a nutshell, the GFS puts ACA close to 10" by Monday afternoon and the EURO puts ACA in the 16-20" category, basically doubling totals.  Until it all gets closer time-wise, I'm siding with the GFS and having us in the 8-10" range, maybe pushing to 12", all on the ground by Monday noon-ish.  The heaviest totals, which will push the 16"-24" range will be east of ACA...a bugger of a storm, to say the least.

TIMING:  Most precipitation for Haywood County should hold off until Saturday afternoon.  It won't surprise me to see rain and sleet dominate any snow as things crank up.  Then, the temps start dropping and we should switch over to all snow as Saturday night wears on....and stay that way through Sunday...and into Monday.  With that type of extended time-frame, understand plowing is useless until all is said and done.

Back about 10 years ago (9?) we got 18" that started December 18th.  The plow broke a critical part and it took several days to get plowed out of the side roads in ACA...I was finally able to drive out December 24.  Suffice it to say this storm could give that storm a run for the money, so stock up and be prepared should power also go out.

I'll update Friday morning and tweak as needed (unless something warrants an earlier post).  Following are some model runs you can click to enlarge and check ACA's "*" on the map and check the key for totals.

My 'usual' GFS 5-day outlook

3p Monday 'look' by GFS model

3p Monday 'look' by the EURO model

Bob

WEATHER UPDATE: 2 PARTS

Eeegads. Per my last post, I'll reiterate that the moisture is a given for this weekend, and a lot of it.  The freezing temperatures, while spotty to begin with on the front side of the system, lock in for what looks like a healthy snow for ACA later on Saturday into Monday.

Before I detail the weekend, we have an issue tonight that may well make for slippery travel Wednesday morning.  A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for 1-2" of snow above 3500', but still some lightly accumulating snow lower, though most of that will be closer to the TN border.  We had a nice heavy dusting this morning that covered my driveway, but there is a good bit more moisture heading in from the NW for tonight.  I'll post an update in the morning once I see what we have. UPDATE @ 5AM: We were saved by the direction, this time.  The snow bands, which have been heavy overnight, were moving west to east, as opposed to NW to SE.  The Smokies are to our west, effectively blocking snow amounts in ACA.  Just another dusting, which suits us all, I'm sure.  However, schools are already closed in Madison, Mitchell, and Yancey Counties where they did get the accumulations. Highs today will hold in the 30s for most of us.

Temps will moderate a little for Thursday and Friday, before the Big Kahuna (relatively speaking) moves in.  The temperature construct is not yet locked in, so the front side of this system could still have rain and sleet mixing in with the snow, certainly below 3500' (the blue roof house on Apple Creek Road).  That would limit initial accumulations.

My favored model is starting to push the 6"-10" envelope for ACA, so it will be interesting to follow the trends on the runs every 6 hours.  The heaviest amounts still show up to the east of Asheville, but even down into the Foothills and western Piedmont there, as well.  Still, it looks like travel will become a serious issue for us later on Saturday through Monday.

For now, I'll close and update as needed.  Might as well prepare for this one, and even if it's a bust (doubtful) you'll have other opportunities to consume all the goodies as our winter has only begun.   :-)



Bob

THIS WEEK'S WEATHER

12-9-2017 at the end of Staymon

Maisy playing in the snow, 12-9-2017

(Click pics to enlarge - this Sunday will mark a year since the above 

pictures were taken.  'Tis the season... ) 

I hesitate to talk so many days in advance about the potential for a wintry mess, but this weekend may well see a significant deterioration in travel conditions.

The first minor event shouldn't impact travel, a very limited chance for snow late Tuesday night.  All models I see are 0-1", and at the moment I have no concerns for the snow part (per travel) here in Apple Creek. What we will definitely notice will be the cold temperatures returning again to end the week.

The bigger issue starts overnight Friday into Saturday.  There will be a system arriving from the Gulf of Mexico that will couple with the cold air that will already be in place, though a bit moderated.  As always, the big question is will we have the critical temperatures thick enough to support serious snowy/icy travel concerns?  At this moment it looks like we'll see it all, snow, sleet, and rain on the front side, even with surface temperatures above 32 degrees (if we should be so lucky).  Cold on the backside Saturday night into Sunday would be prime for accumulating snow at first glance.

The problem with precipitation falling in temperatures within a tick or two of 32 degrees is that the water content is higher and if all snow can accumulate quickly as a heavy wet snow.  If the layer of freezing air at the surface is shallow, it lends itself to more sleet/rain.

Again, this time-frame is beyond what my favored models can see by a day or two, so I just wanted to put it out there for now.  There is no doubt precipitation is coming.  There is no doubt it will be cold. I will post an update probably Wednesday afternoon, so check back.



Bob