SNOW UPDATE

Apple Creek Acres is under a Winter Storm Watch (which will become a Warning later today), starting at 1p Saturday through 12 noon Monday. There have been some rather big changes developing with the GFS, still the favored model for this event: more freezing rain and sleet, and less snow.

The models have been impressive, and as of 7p Thursday they were still heavy on the snow:

GFS:  8-12"

NAM: 12-15"

CANADIAN: 12-16"

EURO: 20-24"

My original thought was 6-10" for us and I'll stick to that. The reason for the reduction in totals for us is a warm nose that is expected to be working its way in from the southwest. The trend for our area is to have more sleet and freezing rain mixing in with the snow, keeping totals at 8" for the high end. The actual Watch calls for up to 0.2" of ice in some areas, which along with accumulating sleet and wet snow spell power outages.  

I still expect pockets of heavier snow, though. There will be a sharp drop-off (or build-up, depending on how you look at it) in accumulations relative to those critical temperatures and where they actually end up when. Buncombe County is now in a Warning in a 10-16" range, so heavy amounts will be close by if not actually here in ACA.

Too, it has been fun, in a way, watching the hot and heavy EURO model which is still pushing all snow and no mixing, but that won't be happening.  Talk about life coming to a halt here if it did...

The heavier amounts look to be east of us, well through the midsection of North Carolina: travel woes will be widespread, to say the least. Here are the various models that will enlarge if you click on them:

GFS 12p MONDAY

CANADIAN 12p MONDAY

EUROPEAN 12p MONDAY

NAM 72 hours

I will update as needed, of course, and I will be on the mountain by early afternoon Saturday.




Bob