I usually compare the GFS with the NAM models...but the NAM sees only 3 days out and it has yet to fully grasp totals by Monday. Many of my professional weather cohorts favor the EURO model for winter storms in the Southeast, and so I'll present that graphic below. Beware: it's graphic, alright.
AMOUNTS: In a nutshell, the GFS puts ACA close to 10" by Monday afternoon and the EURO puts ACA in the 16-20" category, basically doubling totals. Until it all gets closer time-wise, I'm siding with the GFS and having us in the 8-10" range, maybe pushing to 12", all on the ground by Monday noon-ish. The heaviest totals, which will push the 16"-24" range will be east of ACA...a bugger of a storm, to say the least.
TIMING: Most precipitation for Haywood County should hold off until Saturday afternoon. It won't surprise me to see rain and sleet dominate any snow as things crank up. Then, the temps start dropping and we should switch over to all snow as Saturday night wears on....and stay that way through Sunday...and into Monday. With that type of extended time-frame, understand plowing is useless until all is said and done.
Back about 10 years ago (9?) we got 18" that started December 18th. The plow broke a critical part and it took several days to get plowed out of the side roads in ACA...I was finally able to drive out December 24. Suffice it to say this storm could give that storm a run for the money, so stock up and be prepared should power also go out.
I'll update Friday morning and tweak as needed (unless something warrants an earlier post). Following are some model runs you can click to enlarge and check ACA's "*" on the map and check the key for totals.
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| My 'usual' GFS 5-day outlook |
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| 3p Monday 'look' by GFS model |
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| 3p Monday 'look' by the EURO model |
Bob
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