GOOD TO GO....

 Apple Creek Road is good to go. Side roads still have some slush, but from here on out all is good. Rain, and a fair amount of it, roll in New Year's Eve and New Year's Day.  All liquid, no headaches. Celebrate.

Bob

APPLE CREEK ROAD UPDATE

 This just came in from the ACAHOA board:

Just got word that the snow plow operator had a major equipment breakdown. He has worked through the night making repairs and expects to be here before lunch today. Delays like this can be expected as the 1-2" sheet of ice under the snow is extremely hard on equipment. We should have the main road in good shape by this PM with the warmup. 

On a side note, vehicles cannot be parked or left in the road. The plow cannot work around them. Vehicles left at the bottom of the mountain may be parked on the side of Mauney Cove Road.

Bob

SNOW IS FALLING, AND STICKING...

(click to enlarge)

SATURDAY 1:30pm UPDATE:

I picked up close to 4" of snow at the end of Staymon, with a low of 6 degrees at 4am.  The temp has slowly risen since then, but melting has been minimal.  I drove down to Apple Creek Road....it's snow-covered with a solid ice layer underneath it.  Knowing portions of Apple Creek Road go over a 12% grade, there is no worse feeling than losing traction on ice and being at the mercy of gravity.  I chose not to risk heading down.  There will be refreeze tonight, and until the road is plowed and/or treated, travel is very, very risky.  There are lots of things I could use right now, but an insurance claim isn't one of them.  :-/

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And so it begins. It's now 33 degrees and dropping fast and rain has turned to snow.  The bummer is the earlier rain did not evaporate, so this snow should have an icy belly which makes travel all the more dangerous.  My deck is white, and the driveway and cars are white.  It's hunker-down time. 

Here is the what will be going on, per the HOA:

Here is the preliminary plan for the road tomorrow. If the current forecast holds true, we will plow and/or salt the road once the snow stops. We expect that with the road being wet and the bitter cold temperatures forecast that Apple Creek Road will be impassable tomorrow without chains. Our ice melt has limited effectiveness below 28 degrees, so safe travel may not be accomplished until Saturday afternoon. We strongly suggest that anyone who has to travel, take a vehicle to the bottom of the mountain now and walk out tomorrow.

Wise advice.  I don't really have any other update for now...we let Mother Nature do her thing and when we wake up on Christmas Day, what we have is what we have for a good while, given the bitter incoming temps.

Merry Christmas to all y'all!!!!

Bob

SNOW IS A-COMIN'....UPDATE

The above video was the storm 11 years ago that prompted me to start this blog.  Just the day prior I was in Lowe's in shorts, and the cashier said are we going to get the 5-8" of snow predicted, and I said funny thing, my models are going hot and heavy in the 14-17" range.  Lo and behold, this storm dumped 18" here, and I was stranded at the end of Staymon from December 18 until Christmas Eve, when our plower got his machinery fixed. That experience taught me to always have lots of food and drink on hand, just in case.  These poor pups were eating mixed vegetables at the end!

I'm updating the post as snow amounts have changed (upward) some. Those above the blue roof house (3500') are under a Winter Storm Warning from 4p today until 6am Friday, Christmas Day.  Those below there are under a Winter Weather Advisory for the same time period.

Click HERE for Warning and Advisory details.

This morning there's plenty of rain, and one concern is that surfaces don't completely dry before the temperatures start crashing hard this afternoon.  That would make for an icy belly under the snow which would greatly complicate travel.  With these quickly lowering temps comes strong winds and another Wind Advisory (details in the above link).  To say it will be a cold and white Christmas is an understatement.

Per the models, the NAM has ACA in a very tight banding of 3-6" of snow while the GFS is a tad more tame in the 2-4" range. For this young winter, this is our best chance for an accumulating snow, perfectly timed for that proverbial white Christmas (and white birthday for me!).  Be prepared to hunker down and I'll post updates as warranted.

Bob

WIND ADVISORY AND....A WHITE CHRISTMAS?!

From our last light snow that covered our roads, everyone is aware of how dangerous even a light amount causes serious driving issues.  Those issues worsen the more vehicles pack it down to where it's just ice.

You've noticed the plastic tubs with "ACA HOA" on them....those are salt boxes and if you hit a bad area, you can use that salt to help treat it.  NOTE: it's good to have a hammer or something to break up the salt chunks as they can sometimes get hefty.  As well, I keep a bag of salt in my car, along with boots in case I have to walk if stranded.

Weather-wise, today we have a wind advisory from 6p to 12am for potentially damaging winds above 3500' (upper Apple Creek Acres). A strong cold front will be blasting through, so heads up for a potential power outage.

And then....the good stuff!

Our chances are excellent for a white Christmas, with snow starting Christmas Eve afternoon.  At this time, it's too early for any advisories or watches or certainly amounts, but preliminary indications have been running 2-4".  I will update in a couple of days as that time frame approaches.

Bob

Apple Creek Road...and snow?

 This is a very quick update as I am away from the mountain driving Notre Dame to the ACC Championship today. I had a very hard time getting down the mountain yesterday afternoon between the Blue Roof house in the curve that is down below it. I understand from a neighbor that a truck has gone up and down the road with people salting the trouble areas, so I hope that there will be improvement for those heading out or in. If you have any updates, feel free to add them below. I have to hope it's more passable today.

There will be a chance for some very light snow or wintry precipitation early Sunday morning. I don't expect it to impact travel, especially with the salt residue on the road. However, stay tuned for later in the week. It looks like we have a decent chance of getting a little bit of snow Christmas Eve night into Christmas morning for a white Christmas. That's always an exciting potential. Stay tuned.

Bob

SNOW...

ALERT: 8:40am UPDATE: Phoner report - Apple Creek Road is snow covered all the way down.  A very icy patch is below the blue roof house around the turn, and probably other areas.  Use extreme caution if you must go out.

 I always chuckle when we get more snow with no advisory than what we get with an advisory.  I picked up just over half an inch of snow on all surfaces, including the driveway last night, although we were given only a 'special weather statement' early this morning.  It calls for 1-2" possible at elevations over 3500', which is the upper half of Apple Creek, basically.  The snow should taper off before noon.

So, be careful heading out.  It's 21 degrees on the deck, so the snow isn't going anywhere anytime soon.  One more cup of coffee, then it's off to clear the driveway.....wheeee.

Bob

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY

3:30am Wednesday update: 30 degrees and 100% light ice coating on all surfaces, driveway included, here on Staymon Road.  Leaving at 4:30am....will try and update conditions I found when I can once I get to Asheville.

5:20am update: I was a little surprised to find no ice on Apple Creek Road which is only about 125 ft lower in elevation than my driveway which was covered in ice. I had no ice all the way down. No ice on Mauney Cove.  The roads are fine and I had zero issues getting to Asheville. Be careful though... You never know if that can change here in these early hours.

A messy little system moves in overnight with a mixed bag of wintry precipitation. Sleet and snow are more easily dealt with than anything icy, but it looks to be a mixture of all of it. Surface temperatures will be critical given the limited moisture pool. 

 Apple Creek Acres is under a Winter Weather Advisory (click HERE) from midnight tonight until noon Wednesday for up to an inch of the above wintry mix (should be less for us). I have to drive down the mountain between 4-5am, and I'll make a quick comment in the comment section below per conditions I encountered.

Bob

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY

Sunrise a few weeks ago (click to enlarge)

Apple Creek Acres is under a Winter Weather Advisory (click HERE) above 3500' (which is the blue roof house).  The Smokies will get another round of heavier snow (less than the 8" in the last event, though), but amounts will be lower for us.  The lower portion of Apple Creek could see 0.5-1"" and the upper portion is in the 1-2" range.  As I type ~4:30am, it's 37 degrees on my deck. Both the GFS and EURO models are forecasting the flakes to start falling this morning, but neither has us in anything above 1" total.  As is usually the case, those of us higher up usually get more than what is down low in a NW flow event.

It has stayed pretty chilly since the last event.  It shouldn't take too long for our roads to start turning white once the snow showers start, which will cool the air column.  Being another NW flow event, the trajectory of the snow bands greatly affects our accumulations.  Should that trajectory be more W than N, the Smokies will cut back our accumulations and hog the snow.  When the flow is truly NW or NNW, we stand to get more snow when it comes straight down the I-40 corridor. Indications are the flow is more W than N at this time.

I'll be returning to the mountain around 2:30pm today and will update if needed.

Bob