WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY

Sunrise a few weeks ago (click to enlarge)

Apple Creek Acres is under a Winter Weather Advisory (click HERE) above 3500' (which is the blue roof house).  The Smokies will get another round of heavier snow (less than the 8" in the last event, though), but amounts will be lower for us.  The lower portion of Apple Creek could see 0.5-1"" and the upper portion is in the 1-2" range.  As I type ~4:30am, it's 37 degrees on my deck. Both the GFS and EURO models are forecasting the flakes to start falling this morning, but neither has us in anything above 1" total.  As is usually the case, those of us higher up usually get more than what is down low in a NW flow event.

It has stayed pretty chilly since the last event.  It shouldn't take too long for our roads to start turning white once the snow showers start, which will cool the air column.  Being another NW flow event, the trajectory of the snow bands greatly affects our accumulations.  Should that trajectory be more W than N, the Smokies will cut back our accumulations and hog the snow.  When the flow is truly NW or NNW, we stand to get more snow when it comes straight down the I-40 corridor. Indications are the flow is more W than N at this time.

I'll be returning to the mountain around 2:30pm today and will update if needed.

Bob