One of those nights where once I woke up I figured I'd be productive. The official 'word' from the National Weather Service is we are in a Winter Storm Warning until 6p Thursday. 6-10" are forecast for our area (an increase) with a trace of ice not out of the question. Joy. Winds may get breezy and the cautious word continues to warn of power outages later today into Thursday.
The early AM push of snow this morning is taking place just south of us...dry air/low dewpoints in place right now, but all signs point to an increasingly snowy day, especially this afternoon and tonight.
One model run does not a forecast make...but below are the 8pm runs from last night and the trend has gone back to bonkers, which is a nice way of saying any travel could become impossible for a while. Click on pics to enlarge; ACA is where the large black asterisk is. The NAM is 10-14" and the GFS is 10-12" with 14" in the Plott Balsams. The 1am NAM run is solidly 12-14" and the GFS matches it for 12-14". Classic case of preparing for the worst and hoping for the best...and hoping the amounts stay under 10" and the lower the better, but seeing both of these agreeing so much is enough of a red flag for me.
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| NAM 8PM TUESDAY RUN |
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| GFS 8PM TUESDAY RUN |
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| NAM 1AM WED RUN |
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| GFS 1AM WED RUN |
I took a walk down to the junction of Staymon and Apple Creek Road yesterday and figured I'd post a few pictures, mainly for those residents reading from afar...like in FL where a person that shall remain unnamed was gloating about temps in the 70's. :-) Batten down the hatches, y'all...
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| Wintry fenceline along Apple Creek Road |
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| Upper Staymon Road |
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| Snow in the valley |
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| Looking uphill at Apple Creek Road from Staymon |
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| Looking downhill at Apple Creek Road from Staymon |
Bob
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