MAJOR WINTER EVENT UNFOLDING

MAISY IN 4.5" OF TODAY'S SNOW
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APPLE CREEK ROAD will be plowed and salted sometime this evening/tonight
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Do you want the good news or the bad news first?   The good news is that we are finally going to have a snow WITHOUT single digit temps coming in behind it, which means any salting done will actually start working right away.  The bad news is that this is a big a storm system as we've had in a few years, and some of the modeling I'll share below is reminiscent of that 18" snow we had Dec. 18 five or however many years ago that was.  But it's not just the mountains to be impacted but the I-85 corridor in SC and NE GA, as well.

TIMING:  Some snow is possible today (got 4.5"!!!), but the Winter Storm Watch (later to be a Warning) is for Tuesday through Wednesday midnight, a rather prolonged event (36+ hours).  With that in mind, it's conceivable that no plowing or treating of roads can be done until all is done, so be prepared to be sitting a while...or taking your chances but only in a 4WD vehicle.

AMOUNTS:  Always the elephant in the room.  Too, this is a southern storm, coming under us from the Gulf, not flying in from TN/KY. The current National Weather Service thinking is something around 3-4" for ACA, with the heavier accumulations down on the I-85 corridor.  I would love that. The basis for that limited amount is their thinking not that much moisture makes it this far north, plain and simple.  However, of the two models I follow, neither is that low, and it's disconcerting.  The GFS is more tame with 6-10" and the NAM is hot and heavy with 10-14" for us.  Also, where the TN border usually gets so much snow, that's not the case...we stand to get more snow than, say, Fines Creek on I-40 closer to TN.

So I am a bit bothered about this one and as yet just can't buy the 3-4" scenario.  6-8" seems more reasonable for this event, and there is something the NAM is seeing that is making it go bonkers.  Over the weekend, the NAM was 10-14" Saturday at 1p, and by Sunday morning was only 1-2"...since then it has been heating up and these last two runs below are right back to the pounding.  The GFS 1am run is also increasing amounts...click on pics to enlarge, and ACA is where you see a large asterisk west of Asheville:

NAM SUN 8p run

NAM MON 1a run

GFS SUN 8p run

GFS MON 1a run

Bob