Keep in mind that with 3 successive snow events in barely over a week, the roads are narrower in some places. Too, mailboxes and posts may be greatly covered, and it is the HOMEOWNER'S responsibility to keep the postal box clear for delivery.
If you don't know Donna, you should....she is the main person at the helm for our USPS delivery, and she does a bang up job. Help her make her job easier by keeping your mail box cleared for easy delivery.
YAY for the sun I'm seeing as I type and the above freezing temps for some more melting. This, too, shall pass....
Bob
Friday, February 27, 2015
Thursday, February 26, 2015
AND NOW FOR THE DIGGING OUT....
President Keith Patton wrote last night that the plowing crew will be here when they can get here today. Travel today may not be possible in ACA.
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I have 8.0" of new snow here at the end of Staymon, so on the high side. But an interesting storm overall for the Carolinas as some places looking for 8-12" got 1" before it turned to sleet and rain. Ouch. Small changes in storm tracks can make for big result changes.
I'll use this page for posting updated info and pics. If you revisit this page later, you may need to hit the refresh button to pick up the changes.
*Here is an updated snow report from the NWS...only one place had more than we got, apparently....HERE
Bob
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| End of Staymon ~3800' |
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| Very happy Pine Siskins and Goldfinches! |
I'll use this page for posting updated info and pics. If you revisit this page later, you may need to hit the refresh button to pick up the changes.
*Here is an updated snow report from the NWS...only one place had more than we got, apparently....HERE
Bob
Wednesday, February 25, 2015
WINTER STORM WARNING
Yay for the warmer Tuesday afternoon temps to help with road melting and drying out after our plowing. The next snow maker is poised to our SW to come right up the Carolina coast tonight and be a big snow producer....but the big question is, "Who gets the dumping?" Unless that low changes course to the west some, it's not ACA.
While close to us, the 7-12" should set up shop south and east of ACA, closer to the eastern Blue Ridge escarpment and Foothills N/W of I-85 in SC/NC. My models have been solid now for several runs, one 4-5" the other 5-7" (except for the 1am run today: 6-8"). I'm posting the graphic of the latter mainly because it shows that heavier banding E/SE of ACA....I think it best represents what is expected to take place.
TIMING: Warning in effect from 4pm today through 7a Thursday. It's a done deal by daybreak. Snow was originally going to get heavy around 8-9p, but that may happen a bit earlier, by late afternoon. I'll be playing it by 'eye' as I'll be out and about then.
AMOUNTS: Going to hold ACA in a 4-6" total, which is plenty, but not as heavy as others will get. (7pm update...above 3500' may go 6-8"). Of course, with our elevations from 2800' to 4000', there could be higher amounts higher up. Too, temps won't be that far below freezing, so the snow will be wetter, which always increases that chance some may loose power. I do think someone in the Carolinas will pick up 12", so will be curious to see where the heavy banding sets up shop.
Should the low track a tad west, we get more. Should it track a tad east, we get a little less. Thankfully we don't have arctic temps plowing in behind this like we had last week. So batten down the hatches as Snow-Mageddon (NOT!) descends upon us.
Bob
While close to us, the 7-12" should set up shop south and east of ACA, closer to the eastern Blue Ridge escarpment and Foothills N/W of I-85 in SC/NC. My models have been solid now for several runs, one 4-5" the other 5-7" (except for the 1am run today: 6-8"). I'm posting the graphic of the latter mainly because it shows that heavier banding E/SE of ACA....I think it best represents what is expected to take place.
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| NAM run 1am Wednesday (click to enlarge) |
TIMING: Warning in effect from 4pm today through 7a Thursday. It's a done deal by daybreak. Snow was originally going to get heavy around 8-9p, but that may happen a bit earlier, by late afternoon. I'll be playing it by 'eye' as I'll be out and about then.
AMOUNTS: Going to hold ACA in a 4-6" total, which is plenty, but not as heavy as others will get. (7pm update...above 3500' may go 6-8"). Of course, with our elevations from 2800' to 4000', there could be higher amounts higher up. Too, temps won't be that far below freezing, so the snow will be wetter, which always increases that chance some may loose power. I do think someone in the Carolinas will pick up 12", so will be curious to see where the heavy banding sets up shop.
Should the low track a tad west, we get more. Should it track a tad east, we get a little less. Thankfully we don't have arctic temps plowing in behind this like we had last week. So batten down the hatches as Snow-Mageddon (NOT!) descends upon us.
Bob
Tuesday, February 24, 2015
SNOW...AND MORE SNOW
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| Pics from the end of Staymon (click to enlarge) |
UPDATE @9:15am - Got word from Keith Patton that the plow is on its way to ACA. :-)
Just over 4" so far and 21 degrees at the end of Staymon. A picturesque snow, this one, and light and powdery. Sure beats the ice and sleet that mixed in the last one.
ACA is in a Winter Storm Warning through 4pm today, with accumulations around 4", but highs have warmed above forecast (34 at 11:55a, yay!), and breezy conditions later. But wait....
ACA is also under a Winter Storm Watch from 6pm Wednesday through 6am Thursday. No amounts forecast yet by the NWS, but it has the makings of a snow bigger than this one. The NAM is pushing 10" for ACA but the GFS is just around 5", as of last night's runs.
For now, I'll use this page for any road updates, pictures, etc.
Bob
Monday, February 23, 2015
BLACK ICE AND....DARE I SAY?
The Winter Weather Advisory in place for ACA this morning is for black ice concerns...and my driveway had a thin ice glaze before 6am. 30 degrees as I type here at the end of Staymon, so please use caution on our roads because at this moment I have no idea the extent of ice and temperatures.
The weather stays chilly and unsettled for a few days, and though temps will make for a wintry mix at times today, it's light and not a big concern. However, tonight into early Tuesday, the NWS may hoist another advisory for 1-2" of snow. My models are in agreement, one being 0.5-2" and the other 2-3". Though they cover a total over days, the best chances are for this period.
Some of you may have discovered first hand now next to impossible it is to pull a slope in pure slush, which we had on side roads here yesterday as temps hit 50 and above. I was one of the fortunate early on to make it up the steep assault on the lower half of Staymon, but that was on the fourth try in 4-low. At least the slush has hardened or soon will. :-)
Bob
The weather stays chilly and unsettled for a few days, and though temps will make for a wintry mix at times today, it's light and not a big concern. However, tonight into early Tuesday, the NWS may hoist another advisory for 1-2" of snow. My models are in agreement, one being 0.5-2" and the other 2-3". Though they cover a total over days, the best chances are for this period.
Some of you may have discovered first hand now next to impossible it is to pull a slope in pure slush, which we had on side roads here yesterday as temps hit 50 and above. I was one of the fortunate early on to make it up the steep assault on the lower half of Staymon, but that was on the fourth try in 4-low. At least the slush has hardened or soon will. :-)
Bob
Friday, February 20, 2015
GOOD NEWS? YOU DECIDE...
I found it heartening to wake up and find our Winter Storm Watch downgraded to a Winter Weather Advisory. The low pressure system bringing us this wintry mix early is tracking well to our west and northwest...the only reason we're talking Advisory even is because we're stinkin' cold this morning, minus 5 here at the end of Staymon. Had only 7 for a high yesterday here, but milder air is coming soon, so here's what to expect.
The best chances for any precipitation are after midnight tonight, and should be mostly snow, But sleet mixes in and the net idea is that as Saturday rolls on it slowly switches to all rain. Stays rain well into Sunday, too, with temps above freezing, the warmest being Sunday afternoon hopefully in the 40s. Any new accumulations wash away, though snow washes before ice. My two models at this time have now pulled back to 0-1". The Advisory calls for 1-3", but not feeling that, myself, not with mine both going bottom category.
So that's good news in my book. HOWEVER...another shot of cold air comes in late Sunday....from then into Monday we may be in another Advisory for lightly accumulating snow. But let's get past the next 24-36 hours first. Rain and warmer temps will be our friend in this upcoming event, I'm already enjoying the thought of hot water in my kitchen sink, just like Linn D wrote about a couple of days ago. :-)
Bob
The best chances for any precipitation are after midnight tonight, and should be mostly snow, But sleet mixes in and the net idea is that as Saturday rolls on it slowly switches to all rain. Stays rain well into Sunday, too, with temps above freezing, the warmest being Sunday afternoon hopefully in the 40s. Any new accumulations wash away, though snow washes before ice. My two models at this time have now pulled back to 0-1". The Advisory calls for 1-3", but not feeling that, myself, not with mine both going bottom category.
So that's good news in my book. HOWEVER...another shot of cold air comes in late Sunday....from then into Monday we may be in another Advisory for lightly accumulating snow. But let's get past the next 24-36 hours first. Rain and warmer temps will be our friend in this upcoming event, I'm already enjoying the thought of hot water in my kitchen sink, just like Linn D wrote about a couple of days ago. :-)
Bob
Thursday, February 19, 2015
ROAD UPDATES
Passing this along from President Keith Patton:
The paved road will be resalted again today. They are going to attempt to scrape side roads but expect limited results with the ice pack frozen into the ground. It is what it is. Please, "No salt on gravel roads". I expect little improvement before the weekend and urge everyone to stay off the road if possible.
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I'll be posting a weather update sometime on Friday, as we may go under another advisory if not a watch/warning for snow/sleet. I need to make a run to town and if I do, I'll report on the road up to Staymon, but I think we all know to not venture out unless necessary. I have various brands of salt and traction mixtures, but the Morton Salt brand (Walmart) good to minus 15 is doing well on my driveway tire tracks I had to re-salt a short bit ago. Winds stayed up a good bit of the night, which helped to limit this morning's low to minus 4.
Bob
The paved road will be resalted again today. They are going to attempt to scrape side roads but expect limited results with the ice pack frozen into the ground. It is what it is. Please, "No salt on gravel roads". I expect little improvement before the weekend and urge everyone to stay off the road if possible.
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I'll be posting a weather update sometime on Friday, as we may go under another advisory if not a watch/warning for snow/sleet. I need to make a run to town and if I do, I'll report on the road up to Staymon, but I think we all know to not venture out unless necessary. I have various brands of salt and traction mixtures, but the Morton Salt brand (Walmart) good to minus 15 is doing well on my driveway tire tracks I had to re-salt a short bit ago. Winds stayed up a good bit of the night, which helped to limit this morning's low to minus 4.
Bob
Wednesday, February 18, 2015
NEW SNOW TROUBLES
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| Heading uphill on AC Road before the mirrored curve CLICK TO ENLARGE |
What was a clear road with icy patches has now turned into a snow covered winter wonderland that is VERY slippery on Apple Creek Road. Several cars on the sides of roads still, as well.
Here at the end of Staymon I've had 2.5" of new snow today and had a great deal of difficulty negotiating the steep first portion of Staymon Road heading up. Apple Creek Road gets whiter the farther you go up, and even 4WDs will have trouble depending on the slope. Take heed. Incoming cold means zero road improvements until the weekend.
Bob
Tuesday, February 17, 2015
APPLE CREEK ROAD CLEARED
Passing on a note from president Keith Patton that Apple Creek Road was cleared better than expected, in that the crusted snow pack came right up and left the road wet. After the plowing it was salted. Do use caution for any black ice in spots, of course, and on the untreated side roads where it is dangerously slick.
The NWS has pulled back from the 2-4" tomorrow to just 1-2", which is plausible. While snow flurries and showers are possible anytime, looks like the best chances come in Wednesday afternoon. And the biggest concern is the potentially record-setting cold blowing in behind the front. Highs Thursday will most likely not reach 10 degrees, and lows Thursday and Friday will be below zero, possibly significantly depending on wind speeds at those times.
There is another front and precipitation event slated to move in Friday for the weekend. It will start as snow, possibly heavy by daybreak Saturday. However, it is supposed to warm above freezing and switch over to a wintry mix and then go to all rain. We can only hope. More on that bugger another day.
I spent most of the day clearing two simple tire tracks in my driveway. It was one of the hardest jobs I've had here in 6 years with what was roughly 3" of snow with 1/2" of sleet and freezing rain on top of that. My regular snow clearing tools were of no use. Crossing my fingers our snow Wednesday is minimal!
Bob
The NWS has pulled back from the 2-4" tomorrow to just 1-2", which is plausible. While snow flurries and showers are possible anytime, looks like the best chances come in Wednesday afternoon. And the biggest concern is the potentially record-setting cold blowing in behind the front. Highs Thursday will most likely not reach 10 degrees, and lows Thursday and Friday will be below zero, possibly significantly depending on wind speeds at those times.
There is another front and precipitation event slated to move in Friday for the weekend. It will start as snow, possibly heavy by daybreak Saturday. However, it is supposed to warm above freezing and switch over to a wintry mix and then go to all rain. We can only hope. More on that bugger another day.
I spent most of the day clearing two simple tire tracks in my driveway. It was one of the hardest jobs I've had here in 6 years with what was roughly 3" of snow with 1/2" of sleet and freezing rain on top of that. My regular snow clearing tools were of no use. Crossing my fingers our snow Wednesday is minimal!
Bob
WEATHER INFO/UPDATE
Once sleet and maybe a little freezing rain started working in last evening, it became hard to talk amounts this morning. We did get more 'stuff' overnight, and I had 3" when I called it a night. Suffice it to say the snow is crunchy and icy. To make matters worse, MORE snow is inbound for Wednesday into Wednesday evening, with some of the coldest temps we've seen in many years possible starting Thursday. (update) THE ROAD WILL BE PLOWED AND SALTED TODAY WHEN THE CONTRACTOR CAN GET TO ACA.
Initial snow guesses for Wednesday are in the 2-4" range according to the NWS, with my models split again with the NAM just 1-2" and the GFS going crazy with 8-10". The GFS is 'seeing' through Friday into Saturday when, yep, another round of snow heading our way, but thankfully with the bitterly cold temps starting to get a bit more tolerable.
I'll get out later and get some pictures once the fog/clouds lift, but for now here is a link to the storm reports from the region. Of note was the 0.4" ice in Canton. CLICK HERE.
Bob
Initial snow guesses for Wednesday are in the 2-4" range according to the NWS, with my models split again with the NAM just 1-2" and the GFS going crazy with 8-10". The GFS is 'seeing' through Friday into Saturday when, yep, another round of snow heading our way, but thankfully with the bitterly cold temps starting to get a bit more tolerable.
I'll get out later and get some pictures once the fog/clouds lift, but for now here is a link to the storm reports from the region. Of note was the 0.4" ice in Canton. CLICK HERE.
Bob
Monday, February 16, 2015
WARNING "UPDATE" @ NOON
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| 3.0" at 6pm at the end of Staymon |
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Haywood schools let out at 10am, but western NC overall has been in a huge dry slot for many hours. Soon enough, moisture will fill in and wintry weather will commence, but here are my thoughts given the changes....The parent "low" pressure has tracked 75 miles north of forecast. Minimal distance, huge ramifications. I'd lower snow accumulations and add more sleet and freezing rain scenario as the nighttime progresses. Snow starts, then the gloppy mix. The NAM continues the 1-2" snow total, and the GFS is holding strong to the 6-8" of snow, but the big snow totals look to be in the Smokies, Balsams, and the Roan Highlands.
The Western NC dry slot will collapse this afternoon. Temps have gone above freezing early, but they will be falling and precipitation will be falling, as well. The favored precip type after initial snow will now go to sleet and freezing rain, which is nasty because so little amounts can cause big travel issues. Where this storm was one for big snow totals, that won't happen with the low going more north. Ice is the Great Equalizer, though, and nobody drives safely on ice. Now it's about ice accumulations, so it seems. I'll update as I see needed....
Tuesday dry, but MUCH colder air coming in with a secondary front. Lowest I've recorded here in 6 years is minus 9, and we'll give that a run for the money Thursday morning. Ugh....
Bob
WARNING "UPDATE" OF SORTS
To coin a friend's words, the forecasts are all over the map depending on the source. The net effect I see here in ACA is that we'll pull way back on the snow totals and deal with more sleet and freezing rain. There will be a big warm nose of air in the mid levels of the atmosphere that will push in late today/tonight and make our lens of cold air at the surface too thin to support snow, hence below freezing temps and rain. Overnight, the temperature has steadily risen to where I have 27 now...a sign of the times.
Trust me, I'd rather have 8" of snow than 1-3" of snow and sleet and ice, but the latter appears to be where we are heading. My two models are in large disagreement now for ACA, the NAM showing 1-2" snow tops and the GFS still going 6-10". These models 'see' only snow, not sleet or other components, fyi. The NWS is still calling for 0.25-0.3" ice in far SW NC and much of the Foothills and Piedmont of the Carolinas...crippling amounts if they get that thick.
SOOoooooo...looks like an ugly mess no matter which solution verifies. Other minor timing events show precip ending for a while Tuesday, then limited chances Tuesday night and Wednesday as colder air moves in. Looking for below zero temps Thursday and Friday mornings with that bitterly cold air ahead. Then at the end of the week, snow chances are back on Friday then warming air with a rain snow mix for the first half of the weekend.
Bob
Trust me, I'd rather have 8" of snow than 1-3" of snow and sleet and ice, but the latter appears to be where we are heading. My two models are in large disagreement now for ACA, the NAM showing 1-2" snow tops and the GFS still going 6-10". These models 'see' only snow, not sleet or other components, fyi. The NWS is still calling for 0.25-0.3" ice in far SW NC and much of the Foothills and Piedmont of the Carolinas...crippling amounts if they get that thick.
SOOoooooo...looks like an ugly mess no matter which solution verifies. Other minor timing events show precip ending for a while Tuesday, then limited chances Tuesday night and Wednesday as colder air moves in. Looking for below zero temps Thursday and Friday mornings with that bitterly cold air ahead. Then at the end of the week, snow chances are back on Friday then warming air with a rain snow mix for the first half of the weekend.
Bob
Sunday, February 15, 2015
EEGADS...WINTER STORM WARNING WITH A TWIST
Ya know, weather forecasting is a bear....anymore, society sits in an armchair and sees things as black and white and throws spears...and I'm here to tell you that this system is messy as all get out. A model run is purely a suggestion not a 'what is', but some things are turning in a nasty direction.
So we're now a Warning and not a Watch. Expected that. As COLD as we are (19 as I type at 6pm Sunday), the incoming precipitation may fall as freezing rain to start, even with surface temps below freezing. Not good in any way, shape, or form. Models trending quickly to make Haywood County and ACA to get at least 0.1" or more of ice before the cold layer gets thick enough for all snow, which puts snow on top of ice. Bad stuff for travel. Cuts down accumulations of snow, though. Is that a big deal? Is, I guess, for those that look for quantitative data. Suffice it to say we're in for a mess. Snow SHOULD start in earnest by mid-morning Monday...
I'm slated to substitute teach in the Haywood School system Monday. Will they call a delay or school overall early? If they don't, they certainly will call an early dismissal. And from there on out, for Tuesday and Wednesday if not more, schedules and travel should be greatly impacted, here. UGH. This is a real mess....
SOOOoooooo....don't know that I'll post later tonight or early tomorrow, but things will be changing quickly once stuff starts occurring. Stay tuned....
Bob
So we're now a Warning and not a Watch. Expected that. As COLD as we are (19 as I type at 6pm Sunday), the incoming precipitation may fall as freezing rain to start, even with surface temps below freezing. Not good in any way, shape, or form. Models trending quickly to make Haywood County and ACA to get at least 0.1" or more of ice before the cold layer gets thick enough for all snow, which puts snow on top of ice. Bad stuff for travel. Cuts down accumulations of snow, though. Is that a big deal? Is, I guess, for those that look for quantitative data. Suffice it to say we're in for a mess. Snow SHOULD start in earnest by mid-morning Monday...
I'm slated to substitute teach in the Haywood School system Monday. Will they call a delay or school overall early? If they don't, they certainly will call an early dismissal. And from there on out, for Tuesday and Wednesday if not more, schedules and travel should be greatly impacted, here. UGH. This is a real mess....
SOOOoooooo....don't know that I'll post later tonight or early tomorrow, but things will be changing quickly once stuff starts occurring. Stay tuned....
Bob
WINTER STORM WATCH (FOR NOW...)
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| Brother's backyard in Ashland, MA this morning...! |
Got the above picture this morning from my brother west of Boston...we've had it pretty good here, eh?!
Our howling winds from last night have backed off, but they were fierce for several hours as those of you up here experienced. Got down to a low of 1 here at the end of Staymon. The wind kept the snow from accumulating, so all I have are dustings and small piles. But that's it for Round #1. Sun will be out today to warm us some (a relative term), but now to truly get ready for Round #2, the Bruiser.
A Watch is hoisted when Warning criteria is expected, but when it's over 24 hours away. No doubt the watch will become a warning later today/tonight. Overall snow totals per the National Weather Service are for 5-10" in the TN border counties. My models for ACA had been running 6-8", and for 12 hours now have gone 4-6". They'll go up and down as it all nears, but suffice it to say I'm expecting deteriorating road conditions in ACA as Monday goes on, and definitely lasting through Tuesday into Wednesday.
The better accumulations will occur later Monday into Tuesday, with only flurries left for Wednesday. Behind this snow is sharper cold with possibly below zero temps Thursday morning, aided by a snow pack. Depending on your ACA location (low, high, sun, no sun) many of us probably won't see 32 degrees until Saturday....yes, Saturday. What falls sticks and stays.
A component to this messy system is that there may be some early freezing rain in some areas. Not expecting an issue for us in ACA, but not too far east and southeast they'll have more icing, with maybe 1/4" toward the Charlotte area. Snow on top of ice is a horrible combination for travel, of course, And please keep in mind that assuming the snows accumulate and we have to plow and salt in ACA, temps for some periods may be too cold for the road salt to work effectively if at all. Get any supplies you need today and prepare for some inconveniences.
Bob
Saturday, February 14, 2015
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...and MORE
The winds are already a howlin' in the chilled sunshine, and overnight wind chills will be dangerously cold here. A strong cold front is inbound, and really for the first time this winter I'm expecting travel headaches in ACA. Our 3" Thanksgiving Day quickly melted and wasn't a big deal, but with this cold and associated moisture, the fun starts late today.
A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for ACA from 4pm today through 4am Sunday, calling for 1"-2", maybe more in the favored NW facing slopes. This is just the first (and smaller) precip event, with the second starting in earnest Monday through Tuesday. My favored graphic models for the NAM and GFS had both been getting hot and heavy for the 7p run yesterday, both favoring 6-8" for ACA. For the 1a run today,the NAM backed off to 4" but the GFS, which has been the more reliable this season, remains in the 6-8" range. Note: these models show only a total (NAM is for 3 days, the GFS is for 5) and they don't break apart each event period. I would suspect at least the upper half of ACA stands to meet the advisory criteria later today/tonight, with the snow accumulations ramping up later on Monday.
A Wind Chill Warning is in effect from 12am through noon Sunday. Winds will blow 25-35mph at times, with gusts to 70mph in the highest elevations (a Cat 1 hurricane starts at 74mph). Wind chill values will range as low as minus 24 per the warning guidelines. Overnight lows will plunge to single digits....and as long as the wind keeps up it should keep lows from going below zero. If they slack off a while before daybreak, it will be colder.
I'll update later as or if needed, and probably post pictures of the snow totals after the next runtime.
Bob
A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for ACA from 4pm today through 4am Sunday, calling for 1"-2", maybe more in the favored NW facing slopes. This is just the first (and smaller) precip event, with the second starting in earnest Monday through Tuesday. My favored graphic models for the NAM and GFS had both been getting hot and heavy for the 7p run yesterday, both favoring 6-8" for ACA. For the 1a run today,the NAM backed off to 4" but the GFS, which has been the more reliable this season, remains in the 6-8" range. Note: these models show only a total (NAM is for 3 days, the GFS is for 5) and they don't break apart each event period. I would suspect at least the upper half of ACA stands to meet the advisory criteria later today/tonight, with the snow accumulations ramping up later on Monday.
A Wind Chill Warning is in effect from 12am through noon Sunday. Winds will blow 25-35mph at times, with gusts to 70mph in the highest elevations (a Cat 1 hurricane starts at 74mph). Wind chill values will range as low as minus 24 per the warning guidelines. Overnight lows will plunge to single digits....and as long as the wind keeps up it should keep lows from going below zero. If they slack off a while before daybreak, it will be colder.
I'll update later as or if needed, and probably post pictures of the snow totals after the next runtime.
Bob
Friday, February 13, 2015
TRICKY WEATHER AHEAD
I'll start by filling in those reading from far away....it was a querulous thing yesterday to be 5 hours into a Winter Weather Advisory and the sky was clear and blue. HA! Soon enough, some strong snow showers came out of TN and dumped on parts of Haywood County, causing the schools to close one hour early, but once again we were holding an empty poke here in ACA. Fine with me.
Bottomed out at 9 degrees around 4am this morning, now 11 as I type. There is another chance for light snow Saturday later in the day and night, but ACA is still in the ol' 0-1" range. Sunday morning we could rival the 0 degree mark or maybe below up high, and while the super cold air doesn't stay long, the overal below-average temps do.
Enter a system next week that points toward something a bit more than we've had in a while. While flurries are possible late Sunday and into Monday, Monday night and Tuesday see the snow chances ramp up to 50-70%, with light snow showers possible through Thursday. So, at this time not a dumper, but we've escaped white ACA roads and plowing in large part so far, and maybe this time we won't be so fortunate.
All for now...stay warm!
Bob
Bottomed out at 9 degrees around 4am this morning, now 11 as I type. There is another chance for light snow Saturday later in the day and night, but ACA is still in the ol' 0-1" range. Sunday morning we could rival the 0 degree mark or maybe below up high, and while the super cold air doesn't stay long, the overal below-average temps do.
Enter a system next week that points toward something a bit more than we've had in a while. While flurries are possible late Sunday and into Monday, Monday night and Tuesday see the snow chances ramp up to 50-70%, with light snow showers possible through Thursday. So, at this time not a dumper, but we've escaped white ACA roads and plowing in large part so far, and maybe this time we won't be so fortunate.
All for now...stay warm!
Bob
Thursday, February 12, 2015
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TODAY
Once again, we have a NW flow event that has ACA under a Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 7am through 7pm today. Scattered snow showers will be possible through the day, with accumulations (1-2") being limited to within 10-15 miles of the TN border. For ACA in particular, I see yet another 0-1" situation...but it is not out of the question for a strong band or two to lay down a good coating, even on our roads.
Falling temperatures and gusty winds will be the bigger story today. I don't expect to see 32 degrees today, and only a smidgen chance Friday. A second and MUCH stronger cold front barrels through Saturday and will set the stage for a bitterly cold Sunday. The one bit of good news is that the temps will rebound Monday afternoon some, but suffice it to say I'll be dripping my kitchen water for a few days.
Monday night may yield another shot of a wintry mix, but there isn't a lot of moisture and at this time I have no concerns for travel Tuesday morning.
Bob
Falling temperatures and gusty winds will be the bigger story today. I don't expect to see 32 degrees today, and only a smidgen chance Friday. A second and MUCH stronger cold front barrels through Saturday and will set the stage for a bitterly cold Sunday. The one bit of good news is that the temps will rebound Monday afternoon some, but suffice it to say I'll be dripping my kitchen water for a few days.
Monday night may yield another shot of a wintry mix, but there isn't a lot of moisture and at this time I have no concerns for travel Tuesday morning.
Bob
Tuesday, February 10, 2015
BLACK ICE EARLY THIS A.M.
Temp is down to 29 here at the end of Staymon, and my steep driveway was very icy, and had to salt it just now. No idea as I type if Apple Creek Road is okay or not, so head's up. Deck and stairs are very icy as well....had some freezing fog in place when I got up around 4am.
Big time sock of deep cold will be moving in here by Thursday, possibly with the coldest temps of the season. I've gotten down to minus 5 already, and had minus 9 last season...temps could rival those, especially Sunday morning. I'll write more fully about that later on Wednesday.
Bob
Big time sock of deep cold will be moving in here by Thursday, possibly with the coldest temps of the season. I've gotten down to minus 5 already, and had minus 9 last season...temps could rival those, especially Sunday morning. I'll write more fully about that later on Wednesday.
Bob
Sunday, February 1, 2015
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AHEAD
(Once again, temperatures slower to fall than forecast. It's 40 degrees @ 6am here, Monday, at the end of Staymon. So, the day starts well....)
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On one hand, the past 4 systems or so that have come through have either had marginal low temps or marginal amounts of precipitation. I've started calling them 'nuisance' weather. We've had to salt Apple Creek Road a couple of times, but traffic continued pretty much unbothered, with a couple of exceptions.
So here we go again...I was up at the top of ACA a while ago and the wind was howling, as we're in a wind advisory for areas above 3500 feet. Crashing cold air is coming in overnight, as the temperature will pretty much start falling by midnight and will slowly notch downward for about 36 hours. The critical 32 degree mark may not get here til sunrise, with rain already switching over to snow. The 'heavier' forecast bands of snow may not get here until 8a or 9a which will be problematic for schools. With dropping temps during the day Monday, there is no natural 'improvement for the roads. The big concern coming from the NWS at GSP is for deteriorating road conditions and black ice. My models have been holding 0-1", with a few recent runs that pop up 2-3". Icy roads are nobody's friend, and looks like we will have some.
A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for ACA from 5am Monday through 10a Tuesday. Snow amounts may be in the 1-2" range, but falling throughout the day sporadically. Gusty winds will be moving the snow all around. Falling temperatures, or at the best steady, will create black ice concerns on many mountain roads through Tuesday morning. Tuesday AM lows will be in the low to mid teens for us.
So...if you have to get out early in the morning Monday, know there may be the possibility you can't get back up later in the day, especially if you live up above the blue roof house. Plan accordingly.
I'll be posting an update early tomorrow morning.
Bob
______________________________
On one hand, the past 4 systems or so that have come through have either had marginal low temps or marginal amounts of precipitation. I've started calling them 'nuisance' weather. We've had to salt Apple Creek Road a couple of times, but traffic continued pretty much unbothered, with a couple of exceptions.
So here we go again...I was up at the top of ACA a while ago and the wind was howling, as we're in a wind advisory for areas above 3500 feet. Crashing cold air is coming in overnight, as the temperature will pretty much start falling by midnight and will slowly notch downward for about 36 hours. The critical 32 degree mark may not get here til sunrise, with rain already switching over to snow. The 'heavier' forecast bands of snow may not get here until 8a or 9a which will be problematic for schools. With dropping temps during the day Monday, there is no natural 'improvement for the roads. The big concern coming from the NWS at GSP is for deteriorating road conditions and black ice. My models have been holding 0-1", with a few recent runs that pop up 2-3". Icy roads are nobody's friend, and looks like we will have some.
A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for ACA from 5am Monday through 10a Tuesday. Snow amounts may be in the 1-2" range, but falling throughout the day sporadically. Gusty winds will be moving the snow all around. Falling temperatures, or at the best steady, will create black ice concerns on many mountain roads through Tuesday morning. Tuesday AM lows will be in the low to mid teens for us.
So...if you have to get out early in the morning Monday, know there may be the possibility you can't get back up later in the day, especially if you live up above the blue roof house. Plan accordingly.
I'll be posting an update early tomorrow morning.
Bob
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