To coin a friend's words, the forecasts are all over the map depending on the source. The net effect I see here in ACA is that we'll pull way back on the snow totals and deal with more sleet and freezing rain. There will be a big warm nose of air in the mid levels of the atmosphere that will push in late today/tonight and make our lens of cold air at the surface too thin to support snow, hence below freezing temps and rain. Overnight, the temperature has steadily risen to where I have 27 now...a sign of the times.
Trust me, I'd rather have 8" of snow than 1-3" of snow and sleet and ice, but the latter appears to be where we are heading. My two models are in large disagreement now for ACA, the NAM showing 1-2" snow tops and the GFS still going 6-10". These models 'see' only snow, not sleet or other components, fyi. The NWS is still calling for 0.25-0.3" ice in far SW NC and much of the Foothills and Piedmont of the Carolinas...crippling amounts if they get that thick.
SOOoooooo...looks like an ugly mess no matter which solution verifies. Other minor timing events show precip ending for a while Tuesday, then limited chances Tuesday night and Wednesday as colder air moves in. Looking for below zero temps Thursday and Friday mornings with that bitterly cold air ahead. Then at the end of the week, snow chances are back on Friday then warming air with a rain snow mix for the first half of the weekend.
Bob
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