HUNKER DOWN: THIS IS BIG

Thankfully it warmed above freezing this afternoon, and although Apple Creek Road is still snow-covered from the curve above the blue roof house on up, it has helped lower down.  Don't underestimate the need for good tires and tread, first and foremost, up here. Once you lose grip and slide, momentum will take you places you'd rather not go.

This incoming system keeps growing more hairy, like a wintry Medusa.  The NAM has become peculiarly hot and heavy with ACA in a 14-18" range.  The GFS has bumped up a little for ACA with 8-12".  The National Weather Service zone forecast for Lake Junaluska is a wide 10-20" range.  My earlier 6-10" thought a couple of days ago has vaporized.  The higher up, the more snow, even here in ACA.  There could be as much as a 6-8" difference from the top to the bottom. (Click on images to enlarge: ACA is roughly where the black asterisk is):

NAM 7a THU MODEL RUN

GFS 7a THU MODEL RUN

The fun begins before midnight as we get rain, then some sleet mixing in, with snow joining the fray before kicking over to all snow after midnight.  It continues all day Friday, with a possible heavier period of snow Friday night.  By Saturday, the majority of the accumulation will be done, with wrap-around snow showers continuing intermittently, possibly into Sunday morning.

Breezy conditions may make for power outages, so I've filled a tub up with water for flushing and jugs for drinking water, just in case.  Candles ready, all devices charged.  Cameras ready to roll ;-) .  Plenty of activity in town today, and rightly so...just hope folks weren't lulled by the rather nice afternoon.

If we do get the monster side of this storm, don't expect to travel in Apple Creek anytime soon.  No sense in attempting to plow/treat until it's wrapped up, so plan on sitting for a good while.  Back 5 or 6 years ago I had 18" at the end of Staymon on Dec. 18...the plowers had a big equipment failure which stopped them a couple of days and I didn't get out until Dec. 24, 6 days later.  That's the type of thing that is possible up here.  Thankfully, this has been a great day to fill the coffers.  Now we wait.

Bob