NEW: WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY

(5am update below)
Here we are in mid January, and outside of a solid dusting (above 3700') a couple of weeks ago, we've had no snows to deal with.  Good for the ol' budget, of course.  Plenty of cold air spills in now that the polar jet stream has shifted to the eastern U.S. more, but the wet systems to the south arrive only when we're in the warm sector ahead of the cold.  Picked up 0.96" in my gauge Friday, with the highest peaks getting wet, heavy snow.  This was the system I saw two weeks earlier that pointed to a big snow....got the moisture, not the cold.  

Below are two pics from Friday late afternoon/evening, after the rain moved out.  The first is looking out to Chambers Mtn. with yellowish late afternoon sun, followed by a wider shot in the blue cool of evening, basically a view north (from end of Staymon). Click to enlarge pics.

Overnight tonight through Sunday morning, we could see another round of snow showers from the northwest that may give up to an inch of snow in some spots.  The NAM is stingy with more of the dusting scenario, but the GFS ran a bit hotter and heavier in its overnight run with ACA in the 2-3" range, up from a steady 1-2" range for previous model runs.  The consensus in professional ranks had been that the GFS is too heavy, although it alone predicted that heavy dusting event where the NAM saw nothing. Should be more snow Mt. Mitchell north, but our part of the mountains is in the tail end of the moisture flow. However, after I posted this, the National Weather Service has bumped up their thinking more towards the GFS.

ACA is in a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 2am Sunday through noon Sunday.  3" at the highest peaks, 2" for elevations like the top of ACA @ 4,000', and up to 1" in the valleys below 3,000'. 5am update: originally I'd said 1" up top and 1/4"-1/2" down low, and at the moment, I doubt we'll get that.  It's 28 and we're socked in clouds with nary a breeze...and it's the type scenario that hints at minimal anything at the moment. Moisture moving well just to our south, though. ALSO, was chatting with the NWS folks at GSP this morning and this is the first winter weather advisory for ACA since March 5 of last year!  That's pretty amazing...

Since I first posted this, I went back to check subsequent model runs.  The snow maker is a low sweeping across the FL/GA border up the coast and even the NAM is putting several inches of snow down on the I-85 corridor now. Looks like western NC is just a bit too far away to get more snow.

Deep cold plows in for Monday and Tuesday, with single digit temps likely early Tuesday morning. It will remain below average temp-wise for the entire week, with windy conditions Monday, a day where I don't expect to get much above 20 degrees for a high at the end of Staymon.

For those not on the mountain, we had very windy conditions last Friday, Jan. 8th. Falling trees cut power to just under 60 homes here from 3:20p to 5:30p, roughly.  Duke Power-Progress Energy has a great response team and information update.  For those that haven't put this number in their cell phone, the number to call and report an outage is 800-419-6356.

Bob