Sunday, September 26, 2010

Winter Outlook 2010-11

If there is one question every is asking is "What is the forecast for this winter?"  After last winter's very snowy and icy experience, none are anxious for a repeat. Last winter was 'below average' temps and 'above average' precipitation.

In short, temps look to run close to "equal chances" for temps above or below average, which basically translates into 'average'; precipitation is forecast to be average or slightly below average.  That bodes well, but keep in mind those are broad-brush strokes.  I've put sequential, overlapping 90-day outlook maps from the National Weather Service below.

With that said, you can still have wickedly cold snaps, but they shouldn't stay entrenched for long.  If a storm system comes in with warmer air, it can hold more water, and you can always get a perfectly timed cold front that meets up with the more watery air mass and get a big snow; however, the numbers are clearly pointing at a less snowy and potentially warmer winter than last year.

Only because it is upon us  am I leading with a map I saved early Saturday that was pointing to what the National Weather Service is calling for: potentially a half-foot of rain here at Apple Creek Sunday through Monday.  While we need rain, too much of a good thing has its own drawbacks, eh?  If you have to hit the roads, watch out for certain ponding and potential hydroplaning....

POTENTIAL RAIN TOTALS THROUGH MONDAY 9-27




NOV-JAN TEMPS

DEC-FEB TEMPS


FEB-APR TEMPS
  



MAR-MAY TEMPS


NOV-JAN PRECIP

DEC-FEB PRECIP



JAN-MAR PRECIP




FEB-APR PRECIP


MAR-MAY PRECIP

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