WEATHER UPDATE

Poor Grand Bahama Banks...a Category 4 hurricane is bad enough, but to have one sit over you for days has to be devastating, The latest models keep Joaquin offshore with no landfall, a trend now for 36 hours. 

(click on any image to enlarge it)

CURRENT SURFACE MAP

But our rain concerns aren't about a landfall...it's a triple play that is in place atmospherically which is going to make a bad situation worse.  The thunderstorms we had Wednesday were due to a cold front that ended up stalling just off the coast, and is now backing in slightly as a stationary front.  At the GA-FL border is a fairly strong upper level low sitting on that front, a low that will ever so slowly creep up the coast.  That set-up alone is reason enough for a lot of rain here.  Add to that Joaquin spinning northward later today with that counter-clockwise spin, as it will be feeding copious moisture into the flow around that coastal low, exacerbating the situation.

And even THAT in itself would be enough of a horrible mess.  Add to that all the rain we've had in the past week: 4.37" as of Thursday morning, with 1.67" falling Wednesday afternoon at my house at the end of Staymon...now we throw in super-saturated soils and breezier conditions, which can bring weaker trees down and possibly drop power lines.  Oy vey...

5 DAY RAIN TOTALS

While it will be far heavier amounts east of us, latest models still have us in a 7-10" rainfall today through Monday.  I worry about rockslides in the I-40 gorge for sure, and Maggie has plenty of history with mudslides.

If I get any interesting data or unusual updates, I'll post them here.


Bob