NOW A WINTER STORM WARNING...

Our Winter Storm Watch is now a Warning as the timeframe approaches.  The Warning is in effect from 7am Sunday through 7am Monday. Read details HERE.

Temps will be marginal Sunday morning through mid-day, so it may be wet snow, rain, sleet, all of which does not bode well for the crashing cold Sunday night into Monday morning.  Unlike our last snow that was grippy with no ice to speak of, our slushy leftover stuff will become ice in this upcoming event, so I expect more travel troubles from this one.

No doubt areas near the TN border will get dumped on, with decreasing amounts toward ACA.  The valleys should see accumulating snow, but probably just in the 1-2" category, with 3-5" possible above 3500', which is the upper ACA.  The Smokies, Max Patch, etc., could well see 6-9".

I'm here on the mountain for this one, so I'll update as needed.  Assuming this all comes to pass, it will be most helpful once again to stay off the roads until the plow can get up here and salt behind it at some point Monday.  Again, being a holiday, that should help.

Bob

WINTER STORM WATCH SUNDAY

Canvasback drake at Lake Junaluska

From the frying pan into the fire we go.  After yesterday's relative warmth and some melting (a relative term at my house), a Winter Storm Watch has been posted for ACA from Sunday AM through Monday AM.  Possible heavy accumulations may fall, though the temperature may be like this morning as I type with heavy wet snow flakes falling with temps above 32.  Inches of snow are possible, 1-3" low and 3-5" high.  

You can read the official NWS forecast HERE.

As we've heard already, bitter, bitter cold moves in Monday through mid-week, ensuring that any snow/sleet/ice accumulations will go absolutely nowhere.  In 17 years, the coldest I've recorded was minus 9 degrees, and some minus 0 readings are likely ahead.

All that to say batten down your hatches today.  Mr. Toad's Wild Ride is right around the corner.  I suppose if there is any blessing to be had, it's that Monday is a holiday.

Bob

SUNDAY A.M. update

 Apple Creek Road is, overall, in great shape, minus a couple of snow-covered spots.  Side roads were nicely plowed. HOWEVER...

Mauney Cove Road is horrible....there is a 100 yard stretch below Hall Top that's clear, and below the big red barn it's clear.  Otherwise, it sucks.  Just go slow.

Bob

SATURDAY A.M. UPDATE

 ROADS:  The board has asked me to tell everybody to PLEASE stay off the roads unless absolutely necessary until the plow can get here.  The more traffic that goes up and down, the more the snow gets packed and the more icy it becomes, which makes getting the roads passable even harder.

The Winter Storm Warning was extended until 12 noon today, and I can see the snow falling more heavily to the NW...heck, even light snow here, but the big stuff is done with.

Bob

WINTER STORM WARNING AND UPDATE

 

Feb. 16, 2014

Lordy, hit a low of 4 degrees at home this morning.  Although tonight won't be as cold, our roads are definitely frozen, so whatever sticks stays. I have been pleasantly surprised how grippy our last light snow was/is...nary a slip as there is no icy belly to the snow.

Our Winter Storm Watch converted to a Winter Storm Warning earlier today, as expected.  You can read the official statement HERE.

When I first wrote the blog early this morning, I'd put 4"-8" for ACA, and at the last minute I dialed it back to 3"-6".   I'm returning to my original 4"-8" range (valley to 4K feet).  That's  plenty of snow for snow lovers, but why won't it be more than that, given the very large expanse for the Winter Storm Warning?  The system will move through at a pretty good pace and not hang around as it heads northeast.  I'm okay with that...

Jason Boyer is a friend of mine, and he put it best when he said this is NOT a storm to watch it snow and decide to head home in a couple of hours, etc.  Once the snow settles in, travel/roads will deteriorate rapidly, and there won't be that loosey-goosey time frame to plan your move to wherever.  Be prepared.

The timing is for a fairly early arrival here late morning, with locations in SW NC mountains starting shortly after daybreak.  There is a chance for a period of sleet here, but we should stay mostly snow.  And while the bulk of the accumulation will be done by midnight, the NW flow will continue through Saturday, so there could be an extra light coating to our expected snow.  The cold remains in place for days yet, so melting will be relatively nil.  Nightly refreeze will be common for the next week, assuming it can get 'unfrozen' on a given afternoon of sunshine.

If I see major changes, I'll update early Friday morning.

Bob

INCOMING WINTRY MESS

 As I type it's 7 degrees out.  Suffice it to say the light snow at my house has gone nowhere, and for this system the plow blade is going on my UTV by day's end. 

A Winter Storm Watch has been posted for a large area of the mountains and Piedmont, effective from 7am Friday until 7am Saturday.  While the snow may be more mixed with sleet and freezing rain in the Piedmont, accumulations are expected everywhere.

For Apple Creek in particular, I'm going 3"-6", heavier the higher up you go.  Onset Friday could be before noon, though the more concentrated precip will occur in the evening hours.  I hate to be one that speaks of wiping out the bread and milk at stores, but I don't plan on traveling anywhere this weekend, so I will be getting supplies today (mainly because I don't have much in the house! LOL!).

I'll post an update this evening, but for now I wanted to hoist the flag before I head to work.

Bob

SUNDAY'S WEATHER CONCERNS

Squirrel Monday

Last night there was a good amount of sublimation that took place, which is snow actually vaporizing and skipping the liquid stage.  The winds blew in extremely dry air, which accelerates the process.  All that to say our roads are passable, albeit some snowy sections still...but all of those passages I drove through had excellent tire tracks to follow for 2WD cars. 

The system that could bring a wintry mix starting Sunday morning will be coming into our very cold and frozen ground, allowing for the potential of some light accumulation of snow and sleet. All the models I check had anything from a dusting to even 2" up high in ACA, but it's not expected to hang around for too long.

The going consensus in the models is that Haywood County will be in the warm nose that creeps in from the southwest, turning anything frozen to just a good ol' cold rain through the remainder of Sunday and into Monday.  Areas north and northeast of Asheville won't be so lucky as they are forecast to have sustained icing, but as I write here around lunchtime Saturday, we only have a Hazardous Weather Outlook for a bit of wintry mix that then gives way to heavier rainfall and even possible thunderstorms.

I'll update as needed, probably early Sunday morning.

Bob

WEATHER NOTES; FRIDAY PM UPDATE0

Green Heron at Lake Junaluska (click to enlarge)

UPDATE FRIDAY 6PM:  From work I watched the snow fly on my Blink cameras, and in driving home it was apparent that up to 1/2 inch of snow had piled on the road in ACA, starting below the blue roof house.  I made it just fine, in 4wd with brand new tires great for snow.  2wd cars won't make it, at least not without some scary sliding.  Whatever sticks stays tomorrow, with bitterly cold moving in.  Sunday, as the day wears on, warmer air turns anything wintry into liquid, and we're out of the woods.  For now, no winter weather advisory for us, but the roads are what they are: slippery. Can't rule out isolated snow showers overnight.  The rest of this is the earlier post. 
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  Lots of bitter cold and minimal frozen precipitation, that's what we have coming our way.  Strong NW winds will increase later today and overnight, prompting a wind advisory for ACA.  Snow flakes could well fly, but if we get a dusting that would be tops, and the winds should preclude most of that. 

Do be prepared for a potential power outage as the NW winds will more directly affect us, given ACA's NNE orientation.  We know the name of that tune in windy  conditions with our supply of dead Ash and Locust trees.  Those winds will be blowing in a very cold, albeit sunny, Saturday.

Sunday will be a wet one, that may start early with a light wintry mix, but warmer air moves in aloft and we'll go to all rain as Sunday progresses into Monday. Temps will simply be too warm for sustained frozen precipitation in ACA.

Bob