HERE WE GO AGAIN...

 This post will be a short one...there's already hysteria over early headlines and model runs that are over-the-top-hot with a snowstorm moving into the mountains Friday night, overspreading the entire state on Saturday and for coastal areas into Sunday.  I'll give you a quick synopsis for now, updating late Thursday evening.

This map is a generalized "% chance of snowfall amounts above warning criteria" that gives you a good snapshot of the extent of this expected storm, that ultimately transfers into a deep coastal low:

1)  Both the EURO and GFS have ACA with a couple of inches of snow on the ground by daybreak Saturday.

2)  The EURO stops our snow by Saturday evening, while the GFS has accumulating snow continuing into Sunday morning.

3)  There is no scenario with a 'warm nose' as all temperatures will not only be very cold but possibly the coldest we have had yet.  Whatever falls will stay for days

4)  As I write at 3:30pm Wednesday, the GFS totals ACA out at 5-10" (valleys to above 3500'), while the EURO totals out Saturday evening at 3-6" (valleys to above 2500').  I see nothing portending 14-20" that some other outlets are showing, not at the moment.

5)  Winds are expected to really pick up which will only exacerbate potential power outages and make for dangerous wind chills.  

SO... that's it for now.  The EURO indicates moisture pulls away sooner, and I hedge with that at this time.

As a P.S., I had a follow-up appointment with my surgeon down in Arden this morning.  On my way back, I decided on a whim to go over to 191 and take that highway in to the Outlet Mall area.  Remember when we jumped up to 50 degrees Sunday and I mentioned the AVL airport area stayed in the upper 20s all day?  Sleet and ice wreaked havoc there.  The tree damage rivaled some sights after Helene, with freshly cut stumps just off of the highway edge all over the place,with sleet still piled up in many areas.  We could have had it so much worse.

Until tomorrow evening, y'all...

Bob