TIME TO GET SERIOUS: WEEKEND SNOWSTORM LOOMS

Been a while since I've posted something like this...reminiscent of December 18, 2008, after which I started this blog after we got hit with 18" of snow with a forecast of 6-8".  This is a long post with lots of graphics you can click on to enlarge.  Yes, this is early in the week and this is a good ways out, but this is no skunk.  This storm is a bowling  ball that will knock down a lot of pins, but it won't be a gutter ball.

Meteorologically, this is our classic set-up of a large area of low pressure kicking east out of the southwest and southern Rockies, and scooping up a lot of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. We've been in a very cold pattern that will continue to hold on with a large dome of Arctic high pressure sitting over the western Great Lakes (part of the polar vortex that has gripped the northern tier states).  The temps will be here, the moisture will be here, and the recent numbers per potential accumulations are humbling, to say the least.

As with any storm, there will be a boundary/front that plays a critical role dividing snow from ice/sleet/freezing rain.  It's just north of that boundary where temps are closer to 32 degrees which means the air can hold more water than 26 degree air, and that's where you get a "snowmageddon", a crazy dumping.  South of that boundary is potentially crippling ice accumulation.  In this graphic, by far the 'tamest' of the models, you can easily trace that whitish boundary....however, this model is odd man out as all other runs have that boundary much farther south.  Just gives you an idea of what I'm talking about:

SAT NOON TEMP BOUNDARY GFS

SAT NOON TEMP BOUNDARY EURO

I'll be referencing "GFS" and "EURO" models, as those are the two major 'go-to' models.  As a rule of thumb, the EURO does a better job than the GFS when it comes to snow totals, but there is an improved GFS .125 that is a bit more detailed (I'll just call it GFS here). The EURO is a bit slower to develop the totals early on, compared to the GFS, but by the end of the pony ride Monday daybreak they are both hot and heavy on a pretty equal basis.

Before my onslaught of maps, let's talk timing.  Overnight Wednesday and Thursday is a small chance for some freezing rain, with daytime highs going well above freezing. Friday night some light wintry precipitation will begin. It's pretty much all day Saturday and Sunday the snow moves in, heavy at times, maybe a few breaks as well...but this won't be all said and done until early Monday morning, so it appears.

I'll be stacking the timed maps of accumulations with the GFS first and the EURO second.  For now, just the maps (remember to click on pics to enlarge):

SAT NOON GFS

SAT NOON EURO

SAT NOON GFS

SAT NOON EURO

SAT 6PM GFS

SAT 6PM EURO

SAT 6PM SIGNIFICANT WX GFS

SAT 6PM SIGNIFICANT WX EURO

SAT 9PM GFS

SAT 9PM EURO

SUN NOON GFS

SUN NOON EURO

SUN 6PM GFS

SUN 6PM EURO

SUN 6PM EURO
THIS IS DISTURBING...

MON 6AM GFS

MON 6AM EURO

I preface this with "I know it's early and it can change", but to see these two models showing serious and similar snow totals makes my old weather ears perk up.  And that 6pm Sunday "significant weather" map showing widespread icing potential in the EURO would be disastrous, if we were to get a layer of ice on the snow.  That part is far too early to call, but I hope that model calms down in future runs.

For the moment, just throwing all of this out there so you might want to think ahead of the curve and have what you might need.  Power outages are always a possibility, and not being able to travel our roads is almost a given should the heavy totals come to pass.  I had surgery last Thursday, so I'm not in the best position to tackle the snow, but I'll have my UTV and snowplow set and ready to go.

I'll update after more model runs and report any changes in a day or two as this system comes into focus.

Bob

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ACA

 

If you read the advisory without any other knowledge, you'd think we're in for one heckuva snow storm tonight.  But we're not.  Usually, wording is added for 'near the TN line' or something to that effect, but it flat out says that for Haywood County 2-4" with up to 11" (isolated) of snow possible above 3500'.  Not here.  0.5" to 1.5" should be it for ACA by daybreak tomorrow, with temps well down in the teens.  What sticks stays, at least for the day, but please don't look for a Snowmageddon.  

HERE is the advisory for your perusal.

I still can't decide on leaving the mountain tonight, but for now I'll salt my driveway before going to bed and trust Apple Creek Road will be passable to head to my appointment at 6am, unless I see a turn in the models for more snow later today.  Thursday will be a bitterly cold day all around the board.

This evening, there should be some rain showers, maybe mixing with snow, before the temps really start dropping and the NW flow snow bands start arriving.  We're all worried about an icy belly to any snow that sticks, but I sense it will be minimal this go 'round, especially if there is a bit of a break between liquid and frozen.  Cold dry air can evaporate things quickly.

If I see significant changes I'll post it here this evening.  Otherwise, please use the Facebook page HERE for everyone's input and updates on conditions in the morning.

Bob

WEATHER STUFF THIS WEEK

 

January dawn (click to enlarge)

"Stuff" is such a professional word, eh?  Today we have a wind advisory through 6pm for, you guessed it, gusty winds, forever providing the chance for a tree down and resulting power outage.  Let's hope not.  Crashing cold air will be quickly moving in today and tonight, waking us up from our rather mild temps of late.  Some snow flurries will be around for a while as snow bands cruise in from TN from the NW,

The other 'heads up' is for overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning when we should see some limited accumulation of snow.  It doesn't appear to be anything more than the nuisance type of snow we've had so far this season, but I'm awaiting model runs closer to that time-frame for any changes.  Most of the accumulation should be done before sunrise Thursday.

I have decided to get off the mountain Wednesday night as I have surgery first thing Thursday morning and can't afford to not be there, so taking the side of precaution.  Check in on the Apple Creek Facebook page HERE for comments on conditions at that time.

If somebody tells you to "go fly a kite!" today, be careful.

Bob

HOA MAILING/DUES UPDATE

12-21-2025 dawn from the end of Staymon Rd (click to enlarge)

By this time, you would have received the year's end update along with lot dues for 2026.  That IS being mailed out this week, but the lengthy delay was due to an absence of an electronic data base of lot owners that was never provided, even after repeated requests.  The new board had to recreate a digital copy from a lone paper form of lot owners, a time-consuming effort done by David Stiles with Keith Patton's help.  At least from here forward, ACAHOA will have digital files that are easily transferrable for the future.  David has done a yeoman's job not only of creating the database but digging through Haywood GIS and sketching out properties and related information, which will be added into database files.  It's been a slog, but an appreciated (and needed) slog.

In the update, you will see the adjusted lot dues has been lowered back to $300 per lot, down from the $500 adjustment in 2024 for Hurricane Helene's damage to ACA roads.  For a second year in a row, paving has not been performed due to the remaining backlog of post-Helene paving on the part of our paving company.  With $39,000 already ear-marked for 2026, our backlogged paving work will be completed.  Should winter weather decide to dump on us this season, our coffers will sustain us, with the weather pattern continuing to be, well, strange.  As I type it's 11 degrees at home, but the cold dissipates after 24-36 hours this go-round.  This, after our very mild "Christmas at the Coast" temperatures last week.

We (the new board) ask you to please update your dues form with any address, name, phone, email, etc. changes you may have, so that we can put the final touches on our digital files. It would be greatly appreciated.  :-)

This blog is for my longer informational posts, be it ACA concerns or more in-depth weather 'heads up' notices, etc .  Our Facebook page is for timely, quick communications, especially with respect to road conditions or other real-time concerns.  You can go HERE to link to it.

Cheers in advance to the new year ahead...even if it becomes Mr. Toad's Wild Ride.

Bob

WIND AND A WEE BIT OF SNOW TONIGHT

 I've debated posting anything about this nuisance event tonight, as any snow accumulation should be very light.  Maybe a dusting down low, maybe an inch up top, but I'm not anticipating travel issues.  The wind and cold temps are more the story...tomorrow should be perfectly uncomfortable, but only for one day.  For now.

ACA is only under a Hazardous Weather Outlook, and it only details potentially strong winds, with no mention of snow.  This is a NW event, so the closer you get to the TN border the more snow might accumulate.  WLOS, and the Euro/GFS models do put down light accumulations here, but, again, I'm not anticipating any travel troubles in ACA in the morning.

Bob

The snow has been falling since around 4am, and only until now has my driveway gotten white here at the end of Staymon.  We are not under any sort of advisory or warning, just a "Hazardous Weather Outlook".  Snow was expected, but unless I sense a travel issue, I don't post anything.

With that said, the temp is sitting right around 32 degrees, so the snow, however light, will be slushy and slippery, so drive carefully.  The precip will not continue much longer, and anything frozen will be melting soon enough as the day progresses.

Enjoy the look of winter as the holidays zoom in upon us.  We may have another nuisance hit the end of this week...more on that later.

Bob

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY

This is a nuisance system coming in overnight, but the reason to take heed is the icy component of the wintry mix to fall overnight.  This isn't so much about quantity...it could well be 2" of snow falls, but sleet, freezing rain, and rain will ultimately be mixing in, cutting accumulations. Too, the bulk of precipitation will be done by daybreak, so I'll know pretty quickly if we have troubles on the mountain.

It goes without saying that ice is the "great equalizer" as no vehicle can negotiate it, and we have some pretty relatively steep portions on Apple Creek Road.  None of us need for our cars to turn into lead sleds.

The WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (click link) goes from 7pm this evening through 10am Friday, for elevations above 3,500', what I call the upper half of Apple Creek.  Should there be accumulating icy mix on the roads, ultimately temps warm above freezing and any early AM problems we might have should dispel as the day wears on Friday.  This is one system where we let nature take it's course as any salting, etc, would be futile and a waste of $$.

Haywood County has been on the fringe of this advisory all along, as temps are borderline to having any ice accumulate at all.  High pressure to the northeast will be pushing in the cold air, and models have been trending to slightly colder temps for us.  The two major models are the EURO and the GFS...for several runs they were far apart, but the stingy and often correct Euro has since come over to the colder and 'mixier' side of potential accumulations/conditions.

I'll update if I see appreciable changes this evening, and if not, I'll report early Friday morning before I need to drive down from 3800' as the DMV never closes for weather.  Yay...

Bob