WIND AND A WEE BIT OF SNOW TONIGHT

 I've debated posting anything about this nuisance event tonight, as any snow accumulation should be very light.  Maybe a dusting down low, maybe an inch up top, but I'm not anticipating travel issues.  The wind and cold temps are more the story...tomorrow should be perfectly uncomfortable, but only for one day.  For now.

ACA is only under a Hazardous Weather Outlook, and it only details potentially strong winds, with no mention of snow.  This is a NW event, so the closer you get to the TN border the more snow might accumulate.  WLOS, and the Euro/GFS models do put down light accumulations here, but, again, I'm not anticipating any travel troubles in ACA in the morning.

Bob

The snow has been falling since around 4am, and only until now has my driveway gotten white here at the end of Staymon.  We are not under any sort of advisory or warning, just a "Hazardous Weather Outlook".  Snow was expected, but unless I sense a travel issue, I don't post anything.

With that said, the temp is sitting right around 32 degrees, so the snow, however light, will be slushy and slippery, so drive carefully.  The precip will not continue much longer, and anything frozen will be melting soon enough as the day progresses.

Enjoy the look of winter as the holidays zoom in upon us.  We may have another nuisance hit the end of this week...more on that later.

Bob

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY

This is a nuisance system coming in overnight, but the reason to take heed is the icy component of the wintry mix to fall overnight.  This isn't so much about quantity...it could well be 2" of snow falls, but sleet, freezing rain, and rain will ultimately be mixing in, cutting accumulations. Too, the bulk of precipitation will be done by daybreak, so I'll know pretty quickly if we have troubles on the mountain.

It goes without saying that ice is the "great equalizer" as no vehicle can negotiate it, and we have some pretty relatively steep portions on Apple Creek Road.  None of us need for our cars to turn into lead sleds.

The WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (click link) goes from 7pm this evening through 10am Friday, for elevations above 3,500', what I call the upper half of Apple Creek.  Should there be accumulating icy mix on the roads, ultimately temps warm above freezing and any early AM problems we might have should dispel as the day wears on Friday.  This is one system where we let nature take it's course as any salting, etc, would be futile and a waste of $$.

Haywood County has been on the fringe of this advisory all along, as temps are borderline to having any ice accumulate at all.  High pressure to the northeast will be pushing in the cold air, and models have been trending to slightly colder temps for us.  The two major models are the EURO and the GFS...for several runs they were far apart, but the stingy and often correct Euro has since come over to the colder and 'mixier' side of potential accumulations/conditions.

I'll update if I see appreciable changes this evening, and if not, I'll report early Friday morning before I need to drive down from 3800' as the DMV never closes for weather.  Yay...

Bob

INTERESTING READING, NON-HOA

 Waking up to 36 degrees was a wonderful gift.  My driveway is okay, and I'm pretty sure our roads are safe for travel, with no black ice.  From here on out for a while we have nice, warming temps.  I'll take it.

Some of you know that I make wooden Native American style flutes, and have for 22 years.  If you live close by you've heard 'em.  :-)  I work mainly online anymore, but the one store I worked with, for almost 20 years, was "Featherheads".  When I add that the store was in Chimney Rock, you can imagine the devastation that hit Featherheads hard.

With Helene's year anniversary now behind that fateful devastation, you might like to read about an incredibly unusual situation I got to be a part of.  What happens to flutes buried in flood water muds for weeks?  I'll leave it at that...I have a special dedicated page to those flutes salvaged from the store on my website, so if you want to read about a truly one of a kind situation, click HERE.

Bob

BRRRRR.....

The ACA Facebook page is the go-to for real time information on road conditions, etc. (Thanks, David, et tal!).

 I have yet to even attack my driveway after 2+" of snow.  Salt truck has already been on site, and the sun still has a high enough angle to help out naturally, too.  I got down to 11 degrees this morning, now 22 in the shade.  The gradual warm up will continue this week, so just be careful and watch for re-freeze tonight.

HERE is an interactive link to storm reports made to the NWS from this storm.  Kudos for the overworked, unpaid, and understaffed NWS employees for keeping up these services, with the help of automated systems.

Bob

MONDAY AM UPDATE

 No change to my prior post...my driveway has turned white, it's 21 degrees, and intermittent snow showers will continue through midnight or so. Only about 0.25" here at the moment.

No idea about Apple Creek Road, but I'm assuming it is okay for now.  Your best bet for any updates/comments is to click HERE for the ACA Facebook page.  It's very difficult for me to post from the DMV.

Ah, the first snow...

Bob

WINTER WEATHER WALLOP INCOMING

 'Tis the season, and this change is riding in on a freight train.  From Friday night's storms and erosion-causing deluge after days of pleasantly mild days, we have the actual cold front moving through today with winds and, tonight, crashing temps well down into the 20s by Monday morning.  To change out air masses that completely takes very windy conditions.

Along with that will be our first coating of snow as a strong NW flow sets up shop with bands of snow showers into early Tuesday morning.  A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY has been posted for Haywood County, with accumulating snow forecast. Per our typical storms, the advisory is more for elevations above 3500', which is the blue roof house on AC and up.  

Technically, the advisory starts at 7pm today, but the main attraction of crystallized water won't begin until much later in ACA. The advisory runs until 7am Tuesday. I fear the strong winds may make for power outages, so keep that in mind, as well.

Down low, a solid dusting to 1/2" is likely, with 1" being a longer shot.  Higher up, 1-2" should suffice when all is said and done, keeping in mind that winds will blow snow around, obscuring totals.  Too, many of us will stay in the 20s all day, so whatever sticks stays.  

The heavier snow amounts will occur the closer you get to the TN border...and the Smokies will bring home the bacon with 8-12" of snow closer to the 6,000' elevations.

The week sees a gradual warm-up; Monday is the "one-day wonder" this go-round.  I'll update early tomorrow morning before I head down to the salt mines.

Bob