WEDNESDAY MORNING UPDATE

Light snow started around 6am, but the forecast is pretty much the same.  Only light accumulations are expected this morning, before a big lull this afternoon and only off and on snow showers.  By this evening and overnight, a second round of snow, more of a NW flow, sets up shop, so if there are travel troubles it should be for the second round and Thursday AM.

Totals are rather minimal.  The updated advisory is the same as it has been, the 1-3" of mostly snow with some sleet and freezing rain mixing in today, Wednesday.  I'm driving in to work and expect to get home by 530pm or so.

The only thing I have been forgetting to add in is strong winds moving in early Thursday, which may well create power outages on what will be a very cold day.

Bob

WINTER WEATHER UPDATE

 There isn't any significant change to the forecast.  Light snow should be falling by daybreak in the morning, but it's light and there may be some rain and sleet mixing in by late morning.  Then a big break mid-day as dry air moves in, helping to melt any snow buildup.  Roads warmed Tuesday, so I don't anticipate travel troubles, really, in the AM hours.  Main roads have already been brined.

Wednesday evening and overnight, the backside deformation could instigate some solid NW flow snow showers, to where Thursday morning is a bigger concern for travel issues than Wednesday morning.

The overall idea is that amounts from this system are light, and the original 1-3" in the advisory is correct for ACA.  Models simply aren't going for quantity.  The biggest issue is how much sleet and rain mix in....keep in mind, slushy snow, even if just an inch, is exceptionally slippery, hence my concern on our mountain.

I'll update before heading in to work Wednesday morning.  The most recent NWS bulleting is HERE.

Bob

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AHEAD...

 

Before I get going on the yucky Wednesday coming up, I will be making soon a big post on the situation with the washing out roadside just below the upper hairpin curve, which took a good hit with our recent heavy rains.  It's a sticky wicket to say the least.

From 6am Wednesday through noon on Thursday, ACA is in a Winter Weather Advisory which you can read HERE. The Cliff Notes version therein is 1-3" of mostly snow with periods of sleet and freezing rain mixing in.

In poring over the various models, this isn't about the totals but the iciness that potentially will mix in.  Ice is the great equalizer, but the NWS is forecasting only light glazing.  I simply don't see any models nearing the 3" mark for ACA except the RDPS (if you must know the acronym, it's 'Regional Deterministic Prediction System'. You're welcome.)

This is all about timing and temperature.  The high-end forecast is for ACA is 3-6", which as of 4am Accuweather was predicting a 49% chance for, and 47% for 1-3".  Just a tiny tip one way or the other per temps and precip will have a big impact on totals.

Overall, this is a big event for Virginia, so areas closer to the VA border will have more accumulation.  Even Charlotte will be getting a bit of snow, but there will be a warm nose that will try and work it's way in the SW Blue Ridge, which is a snow killer.

At this moment, the advisory seems to be spot on.  Wording and forecasts will hone in throughout the day, and I'll update once I get home from work this evening.

Bob

NOW A WINTER STORM WARNING...

Our Winter Storm Watch is now a Warning as the timeframe approaches.  The Warning is in effect from 7am Sunday through 7am Monday. Read details HERE.

Temps will be marginal Sunday morning through mid-day, so it may be wet snow, rain, sleet, all of which does not bode well for the crashing cold Sunday night into Monday morning.  Unlike our last snow that was grippy with no ice to speak of, our slushy leftover stuff will become ice in this upcoming event, so I expect more travel troubles from this one.

No doubt areas near the TN border will get dumped on, with decreasing amounts toward ACA.  The valleys should see accumulating snow, but probably just in the 1-2" category, with 3-5" possible above 3500', which is the upper ACA.  The Smokies, Max Patch, etc., could well see 6-9".

I'm here on the mountain for this one, so I'll update as needed.  Assuming this all comes to pass, it will be most helpful once again to stay off the roads until the plow can get up here and salt behind it at some point Monday.  Again, being a holiday, that should help.

Bob

WINTER STORM WATCH SUNDAY

Canvasback drake at Lake Junaluska

From the frying pan into the fire we go.  After yesterday's relative warmth and some melting (a relative term at my house), a Winter Storm Watch has been posted for ACA from Sunday AM through Monday AM.  Possible heavy accumulations may fall, though the temperature may be like this morning as I type with heavy wet snow flakes falling with temps above 32.  Inches of snow are possible, 1-3" low and 3-5" high.  

You can read the official NWS forecast HERE.

As we've heard already, bitter, bitter cold moves in Monday through mid-week, ensuring that any snow/sleet/ice accumulations will go absolutely nowhere.  In 17 years, the coldest I've recorded was minus 9 degrees, and some minus 0 readings are likely ahead.

All that to say batten down your hatches today.  Mr. Toad's Wild Ride is right around the corner.  I suppose if there is any blessing to be had, it's that Monday is a holiday.

Bob

SUNDAY A.M. update

 Apple Creek Road is, overall, in great shape, minus a couple of snow-covered spots.  Side roads were nicely plowed. HOWEVER...

Mauney Cove Road is horrible....there is a 100 yard stretch below Hall Top that's clear, and below the big red barn it's clear.  Otherwise, it sucks.  Just go slow.

Bob

SATURDAY A.M. UPDATE

 ROADS:  The board has asked me to tell everybody to PLEASE stay off the roads unless absolutely necessary until the plow can get here.  The more traffic that goes up and down, the more the snow gets packed and the more icy it becomes, which makes getting the roads passable even harder.

The Winter Storm Warning was extended until 12 noon today, and I can see the snow falling more heavily to the NW...heck, even light snow here, but the big stuff is done with.

Bob