SNOW UPDATE: Thursday AM

A WINTER STORM WATCH has already been hoisted for Haywood County and elevations above 3500 feet, but that makes sense because we are one of the 'border counties' with TN.  That's where the high elevations are that especially catch accumulating snows when we get an upslope flow from the NW in TN.  While ACA is a bit removed from the border, we go up to 3900 feet, so a very real potential exists for some accumulation at least on the upper half of Apple Creek Road.

Changes I see this AM:  

1.  Friday morning lows are coming in some 4-5 degrees colder, which is now below freezing.  That complicates any of the snow falling after 1-2 am Friday.

2.  One digital model I like moves us from "chance" snow to "likely" snow from 3a through 6p Friday.  While Friday will be bitterly cold for us, highs should still go a little above freezing.  Friday afternoon seems to be a good window for stronger snow showers, which, while intermittent, can dump snow quickly.  Even the 'chance' category snow showers will continue through sunrise Saturday.  If my high holds around 32 or 33, it will make matters worse (I'm at 3775 feet).  Apple Creek Road could easily become a slippery problem as Friday progresses.

3.  Models started showing the bull's eye in the Smokies a couple of days ago, but certainly there some areas that will get 6" of snow, with isolated heavier amounts. That's a lot of snow close to us.  Both DO show accumulating snow, for at least the upper half of Apple Creek Acres...the NAM shows an inch, and the GFS has for 24 hours put us in the 2-3" category.  Hard to ignore that.

Bottom line:  Friday will be a very cold day that will resemble January.  Chances for accumulating snow on Apple Creek Road will certainly increase above the Blue Roof house, and problems may increase some Friday afternoon.  Temps are forecast to stay below freezing from 7pm Friday, and dip well into the 20s for Saturday morning.  Any snow showers will stick, flat out, and while there is no discussion yet, I'm confident the snow level will fall to 2500 feet overnight Friday into Saturday morning.  Head's up!

Just because it's slated to be a warmer and drier winter doesn't mean we won't have episodes like this.  All the more reason to keep a check on your speeds and use utmost caution Friday and Saturday. 

I'll be updating as I see any changes.  Below are last night's graphical model runs for the two models I'm following, with the "X" marking ACA.  Click on images to enlarge a little bit. 

NOTE: To save space in the long run, as I update an on-going forecast, I will delete the earlier forecasts to reduce confusion.  The "C" on this label basically denotes the third update.

GFS Wednesday night run

NAM Wednesday night run