First, no I am not normally up at this hour, but went to bed early and the ol' brain is busy being creative! Things looking very interesting indeed for today's weather...in fact, between the two major models, it's fair to say the proverbial gauntlet has been thrown down...
(updated at 4:45a) ACA/Haywood County is now under a Winter Storm Warning effective through midnight tonight for 2-4" of snow above 3500' elevations. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for lower elevations for lesser accumulations but a protracted period of rain mixing with sleet and snow this afternoon. The potential for slick roads and dangerous travel conditions goes without saying, especially as the afternoon wears on into evening.
(updated at 4:45a) ACA/Haywood County is now under a Winter Storm Warning effective through midnight tonight for 2-4" of snow above 3500' elevations. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for lower elevations for lesser accumulations but a protracted period of rain mixing with sleet and snow this afternoon. The potential for slick roads and dangerous travel conditions goes without saying, especially as the afternoon wears on into evening.
The 'givens': this is a bugger of a storm for the northern NC mountains, Triad, and portions of the central Piedmont. Our precipitation chances here in ACA fall off rapidly tonight before midnight. The temperature continues on a very very slow drop (it's 40 as I type at 330a), and accumulating snow can begin falling with an air temp above 32. Some sleet will likely mix in with light rain this morning, too. The significant snows will fall above 3500' in elevation starting this afternoon, which is our 'blue roof'/Moskos family home. Should be a heavier, snow, which could stack up quickly. Slippery, slushy roads go without saying as a viable hazard as the afternoon wears on.
This year we've have 4 very light snows of <1", one of 2.5", and one of an estimated 1-1.5" last weekend, which the winds kindly blew away off the roads. The two models, GFS and NAM, have not disagreed much this season, with the GFS being favored by the National Weather Service.
However, looking at the latest runs from last night, they are quite apart in snow totals. GFS: 1" NAM: 3-4". In essence, the GFS says the cold will be delayed and snow minimal around and west of Asheville, with the heavy stuff still where both agree it to fall well N and NE of us. A snow void, of sorts, it predicts. The NAM peppers pretty much the NC/TN border with 3-6" up, again, for just the higher elevations.
(click pics to enlarge; "X" is ACA)
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| NAM 8p Saturday Run |
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| GFS 8pm Saturday run |
Good news is no bitter cold snap follows....should go above 32 Monday, however should we get a good snowpack, albedo will keep shaded areas colder. Will update later this morning as necessary.
Bob
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