WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OVERNIGHT

4:45am  2" heavy snow @ 33 degrees

The particulars: ACA is in a Winter Weather Advisory from 6p this evening through noon  Friday, for a wintry mix that is expected to be a mix of rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow.  The 'official' forecast is rather complicated...1-2" in the Blue Ridge, 2-3" in the Balsams (ACA is on the NE end of the Plott Balsams), and involves accumulating snow and sleet before daybreak, then freezing rain on top of that for a wicked little layer cake effect.  Highs Friday go well above freezing, and any other precipitation goes to rain, but suffice it to say the AM commute for our mountain may be quite slick.  Given that outcome, there is no way to treat roads with this type stuff, so we will just have to wait out any issues as the temps climb well above freezing.

HOWEVER....I don't see too much ice concern for ACA in particular.  Alas, all it takes is a little ice to cause a huge issue, but the accumulations are not showing up in my favored modeling, except for a curious NAM run at 8p last night that has a solo bullseye of 'accumulation' right here in Haywood County, with ACA in the 2-5" range.  One of the oddest output maps I've seen, but here it is in all it's glory:

NAM 8pm run Wednesday 3/5/14

Subsequent runs have had from 0 to 1" accumulation and that's it, for both NAM and GFS models.  This whole system will be a huge bugger for the Foothills and Piedmont of NC, especially the northern parts, where temps will be colder.  Here in ACA, our low temps will be marginal to the 32 degree mark as it is, but these late season systems come in with a lot more moisture, so any periods of sleet or snow can accumulate rather quickly.  I'm personally going for a gloppy mess but no travel issues getting off or on the mountain.

Updates posted here as needed.  Refresh page for any changes.

Bob