This particular system has been like a wild pony in the model runs the past few days. When I last wrote here, I was seeing around 3" for ACA. But the models have not agreed on the storm track, which is everything when it comes to snow, especially. Lots of snow, to no snow, to a little snow, and now our Winter Weather Advisory (embedded link) for some of us.
The advisory runs from midnight tonight through midnight Monday, with the snow part in two chunks: early Monday AM, and Monday evening onward. For the discussion to follow, there may well be a problematic rain/ice/snow mix by daybreak Monday, with some accumulation likely. More accumulations will occur on the Monday evening side of this system.
North and northeast of Asheville is a Winter Storm Warning for 3-6"+ of snow. Glad we're missing out on that here in ACA. Our Advisory is for elevations above that magical 3500' level (blue roof house). The advisory is for 2-4" of snow; lower elevations may see snow mixing in with the rain toward Monday evening. Little to no accumulation is expected in the valleys. Per the models, the GFS gets my nod on most sytems this winter.
My issue per accumulations is how much will really accumulate, given that rain will mix in with the snow. The most recent GFS run pulls back to 1" at best, while the NAM holds on to the 2-4" here. I put in last evening's GFS run which showed the higher amounts. One must remember one model run does not a forecast make, but a 'skunk' is not out of the picture here. (click to enlarge pics)
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| GFS Sunday AM run (06Z) |
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| GFS run Saturday night (00Z Sun) |
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| NAM run Sunday AM (06Z) |
All this to say roads could be a slippery mess Monday morning and definitely Tuesday morning with temps then expected to be down into the low to mid 20s.
I'll update if needed this evening with a new post, FYI.
Bob
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