Doe in Cataloochee Valley, giving me a stare-down.
'Tis the season, of course. A quick hitting shot of cold air with a limited moisture field will arrive tonight and give us a very cold Wednesday before departing. As I write, we are simply under a "Hazardous Weather Outlook" (HWO) as opposed to a Winter Weather Advisory (WWA), but I expect that advisory to be posted some time later today.
It's a northwest flow event, which we all know is not a great snow producer in most systems. If that NW flow sets up truly from the NW down the I-40 corridor to us, that will put down the expected 1-2" for Apple Creek, at least the upper half. Down in the valleys, like Waynesville, I'm expecting a dusting to maybe 1/2" tops.
My bus route runs rural backroads from the end of Jonathan Valley to near Fines Creek, so I'm expecting a bit more out that way. The spine of the Great Smokies could see 3-5"...going back to our actual flow, if it is more WNW, the Smokies will block a lot of our accumulations in ACA.
All this to say this is a baby event, but it's a first. It takes very little accumulation on Apple Creek Road to make it a skating rink, and it may well not snow enough to warrant a snow plow. I'll update accordingly much later today and early tomorrow morning.
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