TIME TO GET SERIOUS: WEEKEND SNOWSTORM LOOMS

Been a while since I've posted something like this...reminiscent of December 18, 2008, after which I started this blog after we got hit with 18" of snow with a forecast of 6-8".  This is a long post with lots of graphics you can click on to enlarge.  Yes, this is early in the week and this is a good ways out, but this is no skunk.  This storm is a bowling  ball that will knock down a lot of pins, but it won't be a gutter ball.

Meteorologically, this is our classic set-up of a large area of low pressure kicking east out of the southwest and southern Rockies, and scooping up a lot of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. We've been in a very cold pattern that will continue to hold on with a large dome of Arctic high pressure sitting over the western Great Lakes (part of the polar vortex that has gripped the northern tier states).  The temps will be here, the moisture will be here, and the recent numbers per potential accumulations are humbling, to say the least.

As with any storm, there will be a boundary/front that plays a critical role dividing snow from ice/sleet/freezing rain.  It's just north of that boundary where temps are closer to 32 degrees which means the air can hold more water than 26 degree air, and that's where you get a "snowmageddon", a crazy dumping.  South of that boundary is potentially crippling ice accumulation.  In this graphic, by far the 'tamest' of the models, you can easily trace that whitish boundary....however, this model is odd man out as all other runs have that boundary much farther south.  Just gives you an idea of what I'm talking about:

SAT NOON TEMP BOUNDARY GFS

SAT NOON TEMP BOUNDARY EURO

I'll be referencing "GFS" and "EURO" models, as those are the two major 'go-to' models.  As a rule of thumb, the EURO does a better job than the GFS when it comes to snow totals, but there is an improved GFS .125 that is a bit more detailed (I'll just call it GFS here). The EURO is a bit slower to develop the totals early on, compared to the GFS, but by the end of the pony ride Monday daybreak they are both hot and heavy on a pretty equal basis.

Before my onslaught of maps, let's talk timing.  Overnight Wednesday and Thursday is a small chance for some freezing rain, with daytime highs going well above freezing. Friday night some light wintry precipitation will begin. It's pretty much all day Saturday and Sunday the snow moves in, heavy at times, maybe a few breaks as well...but this won't be all said and done until early Monday morning, so it appears.

I'll be stacking the timed maps of accumulations with the GFS first and the EURO second.  For now, just the maps (remember to click on pics to enlarge):

SAT NOON GFS

SAT NOON EURO

SAT NOON GFS

SAT NOON EURO

SAT 6PM GFS

SAT 6PM EURO

SAT 6PM SIGNIFICANT WX GFS

SAT 6PM SIGNIFICANT WX EURO

SAT 9PM GFS

SAT 9PM EURO

SUN NOON GFS

SUN NOON EURO

SUN 6PM GFS

SUN 6PM EURO

SUN 6PM EURO
THIS IS DISTURBING...

MON 6AM GFS

MON 6AM EURO

I preface this with "I know it's early and it can change", but to see these two models showing serious and similar snow totals makes my old weather ears perk up.  And that 6pm Sunday "significant weather" map showing widespread icing potential in the EURO would be disastrous, if we were to get a layer of ice on the snow.  That part is far too early to call, but I hope that model calms down in future runs.

For the moment, just throwing all of this out there so you might want to think ahead of the curve and have what you might need.  Power outages are always a possibility, and not being able to travel our roads is almost a given should the heavy totals come to pass.  I had surgery last Thursday, so I'm not in the best position to tackle the snow, but I'll have my UTV and snowplow set and ready to go.

I'll update after more model runs and report any changes in a day or two as this system comes into focus.

Bob