WINTER STORM TIMING, CONCERNS

Honing in on this cantankerous storm that WILL be wreaking havoc in many areas...and what appears to be a saving grace for us here in ACA, depending on how we get through Saturday.

In a nutshell, I'm still siding with the EURO which has a warmer, less snowy/icy overall solution. The GFS still wants to put down inches of snow, but I just don't sense that will be the case.

First, model run comparisons, and for these I'm widening out the view to a more regional look (click on pics to enlarge):

I started at 10pm... precipitation will be falling by early afternoon, and probably as a wet snow.  But the above 10pm graphics tell the difference of a snowy GFS and an icy EURO.

The 9am Sunday run shows the GFS hanging onto snow with sleet mixing in; the EURO is still in freezing rain.  HOWEVER...note the green in SW NC of rain showing up, with surface temps above freezing.  Also note the green in what are the High Country locations above 5,500', tall enough to be in the warm sector and potentially above freezing.  The reason I'm going with the EURO is the warm nose continues to be very aggressive working from SW to NE.

3pm Sunday run shows us potentially in all rain, with the GFS refusing to give up the snowier/icier ghost.  Assuming we go to all rain, cross your fingers it removes as much ice as possible.  Sunday night the temperatures crash, and whatever is left over will stay for a few days as we go into a deep freeze.  Winds will pick up, and if there is ice on the trees/power lines, they can still come down.

So, is this a minor event for us?  Not at all, given accumulating sleet and freezing rain take over as the dominant precipitation.  Freezing rain is the worst of the worst, in terms of power outages, inability to travel, and downed trees.  For my prep, I'm not touching the UTV; instead, I've gathered and prepped my chain saw supplies, for the first time in a while.  Power outages appear to be very likely, so prepped for that.

Oh, and on the back side will be NW flow snowshowers, which might lead to some light accumulation overnight Sunday into Monday.  And insofar as accumulations, when you deal with wet snow, sleet, and freezing rain, that's almost immaterial.  I'll be closing watching my thermometers and will report on the Facebook page from my place on the mountain.  Freezing rain is the most dangerous.

Bob