In one way I was flummoxed at the rapid model changes the past 48 hours, far more rapid than 'normal'...but there isn't that much that is normal in weather anymore. Gone is a snowmageddon, now an icier mess that we don't talk about accumulations so much as the potential for trees down, power outages, etc. Many won't be able to travel for a while; give me 4" of snow and I'm fine, but give me 1.5" of sleet and I'm not budging.
Click HERE for our current Winter Storm Watch.
There is still a big difference between the GFS and the EURO. The GFS brings in snow at first in the 4-8" range Saturday, where the much slower EURO has maybe flurries or light accumulation of snow for us. The EURO paints us in freezing rain and sleet for most of this event, which kills any talk of accumulating snow. Accreting ice on power lines and weakened trees is the potential thorn in our side, and we're talking a tremendous amount of real estate under that cloak.
I'm hedging with the EURO at this point, which will push a warm nose in SW North Carolina Sunday to where temps may be above 32 degrees with some rain. There is a snowy NW flow backside as the moisture departs, but at this moment I see little in the way of accumulation there.
.jfif)
Warm air is lighter than cold air, and we should have below freezing temps at the surface through Saturday. With warm air aloft, depending on how far aloft it is, we get an icy solution. For me, freezing rain is the worst, followed by sleet, then snow.
Many years ago I was on duty at News14 Carolina in Charlotte (now Spectrum News). We were staffed 24/7 in weather, and I went on duty at midnight. Around 2am, it was 27 degrees outside...and it was pouring flat-out rain. I mean pouring, all freezing on every surface. The ice storm took out power to some 1.6 million customers. You could hear trees break and fall, transformers exploding all around....it was an icy hell that brought the region to a halt for days.
Our Watch will become a Warning as Saturday approaches, and I'll update with any changes. We still have today and tomorrow to get our ducks in a row for whatever this whirling dervish of a winter storm decides to throw at us.
Bob
Thanks, Bob!
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