QUICK UPDATE

Originally, there was a chance for lightly accumulating snow on the back side of our current rain system.  While some snow might mix in toward the end later tonight, I see zero issues for ACA. The GFS has zero snow for us, and the NAM has 0-1" only along the TN border and not down as far as us.  In peeking down the pike, temps will moderate by the weekend and stay that way for a while.


Bob

SUNDAY A.M. UPDATE

I don't think anyone is complaining that we dodged a bullet last night.  There was lightly accumulating snow around 330am, but the temp went from 31 then to 34 before 7am.

From the blue roof house up there is considerable slippery slush still on the road at 1030am, so keep your speed in check.  The warm nose has moved in here, so that should be it for frozen stuff until tonight.  I am seeing reports of other areas farther east that are dealing with some accumulating ice, but we should be good to go today, outside of the slushy roads.


Bob

WINTRY MIX OVERNIGHT

ACA is under another Winter Weather Advisory from 1am to 10am Sunday.  Overnight, precipitation will initially be snow with maybe a little sleet, then towards daybreak transition to freezing rain and ultimately rain.  My models don't put down more than an inch, but the advisory is for up to 2 inches of snow and 1/10th inch of ice.

Snow amounts aren't the issue, as rain will beat it down anyway.  Ice is the biggest concern, and this time around we'll have to let Mother Nature take care of the roads.  Ice is much harder to get rid of than snow.

I didn't venture out yesterday in the car, but parts of Apple Creek Road look quite good, and I'm willing to bet you can hopscotch up and down by picking the areas where you can see asphalt in shaded areas.  Just be extremely cautious as you head out early Sunday.

Sunday night, after the rain tails off, a few bands of snow showers will move through.  Should the roads still be wet, that could make for one of those slick dusting scenarios for Monday morning. More on that later.


Bob

FRIDAY A.M. UPDATE

DANGER!  While I have one inch of snow, ice is underneath.  Chris Martin posted from the bottom of the mountain that while there is no snow on the road, it's shiny as glass. He did see one SSUV inch down, and at 745am the plow was heading slowly up Apple Creek Road.  Give it some time for the salt to work.

Ice is slow to melt, and temps are supposed to stay below freezing.  We do warm some tomorrow afternoon, but the next round comes in Saturday night and we may be in for a doozy of a time in ACA.

I'll update the weather by tomorrow...it contains rain, freezing rain, and snow.  :-/


Bob

MORE SNOW TONIGHT

Here we go again.  ACA is under a Winter Weather Advisory from 6pm tonight until 9am Friday.  Per the NWS, the advisory is for 2-3" down low, and 3-4" up high.  My models have held pretty much at 2", but my favored GFS has had a couple of runs the past two days that went 3-6".  Suffice it to say accumulating snow is moving in tonight.

This is another northwest flow event.  These types of system are rarely known for huge snows, but it looks like this one has more moisture to tap than the one last Monday night.  However, it appears that there should be some rain first before it switches to snow and the temps drop down into the 20s, so be sure to check under the snow to see how icy it may be Friday morning.  Monday night's system was really fluffy over minimal ice...this one may be a bit more tricky.  

Highs Friday should stay below 32 degrees...what sticks will stay.  We should warm above 32 Saturday but the next wintry system will be fast on its heels.

Saturday night there will be some snow mixed with my least favorite of all: freezing rain. Those two types will duke it out into Sunday morning before it changes to all rain (fingers crossed) during the day. Sunday night, it should transition to all snow, though accumulations will be light thanks the rain mixing in at times. 

The only good news I can find in all that is we don't have a polar air mass moving in, so while some periods ahead are below 32, they're not down in the low teens or worse...and highs should get to or above 32, even in all that incoming wintry mess.

With this somewhat prolonged outlook, stocking up today is wise, just to be safe.



Bob

TUESDAY 11 A.M. UPDATE

Birds are all fluffed...or should I say brrrrds?

UPDATE: The plow/salter is in ACA as I type. 

I recorded 3.6 inches of fluff here at the end of Staymon, and still holding at a chilly 19 degrees. This northwest flow event has been perfectly angled right down the I-40 corridor from TN, giving us the higher end of totals. 

Highs today won't reach 32 for most of us, but should get up into the 40s for some Wednesday. 

Thursday night into Friday morning is Round #2, but a trickier rain-to-snow situation.  Assuming the snow will accumulate some, it will be icy underneath (my biggest concern). 

Lest you haven't had enough, Round #3 will come in late Sunday into Monday, but it will be a snow-to-rain situation.  Too early to tell how long that snow will hold on, so just throwing it out there for now.  Feel the excitement...

:-/


Bob

MONDAY NIGHT SNOW

While it's not a big amount, 1-3 inches of snow could fall after dark Monday into the early hours of Tuesday morning.  We're still getting some rain ahead of the cold front that doesn't make it's passage until later on Monday.

ACA is under a Winter Weather Advisory from Monday 7pm until Tuesday 10am.  The 1-3" is what my models are seeing, so I don't see any curveballs.  The ground is warmer, and there may be a bit of light rain before the snow transition, so there could be an icy belly.  Lows will be near 20, with highs just under 32 degrees Tuesday.  Luckily, the temps do rebound within 48 hours.

Yes, there may be another light shot of snow late in the week (Friday), but we'll cross that bridge as we get to it.


Bob