Sunday 4pm UPDATE

(6p update with graphics, in blue)

This is the third post per wintry weather thanks to Hurricane Sandy's path.  Check the other two posts for background info.  Significant changes per timing and precipitation to follow.

First, and no surprise, the National Weather Service has posted several warnings for us here in ACA.  You can read about the details HERE.  All warnings in effect from midnight tonight through 6am Wednesday.   It's unusual, serious stuff that impacts us over days:

Winter Storm Warning

Freeze Warning

High Wind Warning

The NAM 12Z run printed several hours later, hence my later posting of these graphics. Of course, the winds will be whipping the snow all around, making actual accumulations very hard to nail down.  But I'm putting the 12Z runs (8am EDT) in below.  The GFS still keeps us only in a roughly 2" window, but the NAM has us in a 6-12" band, tightly gradated.  FYI, it takes a good 5 hours or more for a run to become graphically manipulated, hence the delay:

(CLICK PICS TO ENLARGE)

12Z GFS Sunday AM

12Z NAM Sunday AM

CHANGES:  The magic 32 degree temp has been upped to get here shortly after midnight. I've been 40 most of the day, now at 36 at 6pm.  Precip now goes to almost all snow at that point, and a much smaller window of any rain mixing in Monday noon-ish, early afternoon. Personally, I'm comfortable with the NWS storm total of 5-8" scenario, but deep down, if you want to call me on it, I do think more than that is pretty likely.

Below is the latest path and timing update of Sandy...still holding to a hard north hook up into Canada, but this storm is expansive.  I feel the GFS has underdone this winter storm for us, and the NAM has been a little too hot and heavy. As Sandy's remnants start moving north, our weather calms down and improves. The answer is in the middle, so hunker down.  I made my grocery run earlier so my pups won't mutiny on me!  

SANDY 2p Sunday run

Bob