Long story short, the GFS may be missing something (though I would love for it to be spot on!), and the NAM is seeing something else entirely...there is no doubt that where the circulation of Sandy travels once inland, will make a mountain of difference in any snow here in ACA. When you enlarge the NAM graphic, if it were to verify, it would equal our 18" that dumped a week before Christmas in 2009 (I think?)...I remember it clearly as one of these graphic data sets showed 16-18" one day before it hit. I was in Lowe's picking up some things, the clerk asked about the snow chances as they were calling for 4-8", and I quipped I saw one model put down over a foot for us...and, voila. I got stuck at the end of Staymon for 6 days, and it was largely the impetus of my starting this blog.
I will also say that as long as I've analyzed snow forecasts for western NC, I have not seen such a large difference in amounts between these two models. GFS still holds a 1", maybe 2" for us, and the NAM has 16"-20" VERY close by:
(click on pics to enlarge)
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| 2AM Sunday GFS |
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| 2AM Sunday NAM |
Light rain is possible overnight tonight...and that magical 32 degree temp should be here around 7a Monday, when any precip should be snow. There is a possibility that rain will mix back in mid day Monday, but by supper time Monday another favored model has us in 'definite' or 'likely' snow categories through Tuesday. Stands to reason that will potentially be our real travel trouble time. More than likely I'll update later this afternoon...it really is all about Sandy at this point.
Bob
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