UPDATE @ 7:15p SATURDAY: The NWS has put Haywood County in a Winter Storm Warning for 3-5" of snow and 8" in the highest elevations...I do think the bigger stuff is intended for the Smokies and Plott Balsams, but they're close to here. Radars unimpressive into TN west of I-81, but it is banked up along and over the TN line. Still feeling ACA is in the 2 to maybe 3" range.
Third time is the charm? Yet another Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for ACA from noon Saturday through noon Sunday. The going advisory is for 2-5"...yet neither of my models has over 3". The GFS, champion so far this year, says 1-2". The NAM says 2-3". The Smokies stand to get the 4-5" I suppose, and from Sam's Gap north will get a good bit...but neither of these models is hot and heavy this time.
Onset will be in the late afternoon, with a 'likely' period of potential snow from 4p through 9pm, with scattered light snow before and after. The other chin-stroker is the potential for rain to mix in as the temp flirts between 31 and 33 degrees....and the digital output says after midnight the temp will rise to slightly above freezing before dropping again. That would sure make a mess...and maybe the above two models are factoring in the mixed rain which would reduce snow totals some. Hmmmmmm....
Just throwing this out there tonight...I'll update in the morning. If you twisted my arm I'd go with 1.5 to 2" for us...but at least this arctic blast we have now will be ameliorated a good bit. 16 degrees as I type at 7:45p.
bob
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