WEATHER UPDATE AND MORE...

Let me first tie up some loose ends from questions that have come up recently.  Asplundh is contracted by Duke Energy to take proactive actions to clear powerline right of ways, in hopes of minimizing power outages due to falling timber.  To my knowledge, there is no advance notice of this activity, or at least I've never been aware of one.  And they have the right to do what they need to whenever they want.  While maybe a minor nuisance at times, it is in our best interest if we can minimize power outages.

Mail delivery...I've been round and round lately with the post office and never gotten any satisfactory answers.  We do have a new route driver, Al (I think), but he's been out due to sickness or family issues of late and we've continued to have a mish-mash of fill-in drivers.  I know why I didn't get mail for over two weeks on Staymon, thanks to the never-ending ice-skating rink it was....but in the past few days the roads are perfectly clear and still no mail delivery.  And no satisfactory explanation of why not, either. We're not alone...I've seen all sorts of various posts of poor or non-existent mail delivery in other areas of Haywood County.  The only good answer I know of is to go online and put a hold on your mail for a length of time that suits you and simply go pick it up yourself.

And this tidbit has absolutely nothing to do with ACA, just my job.  I drive motorcoaches for Young Transportation out of Asheville, and am the team driver for the UNC-Asheville men's basketball team.  I just returned early this morning from our trip to Winthrop University in Rock Hill, SC...we slayed the giant last night on their home turf, toppling the longest running undefeated team in the NCAA (21 games). Made for a great trip back, to say the least!

Okay, now to the weather. I enjoyed my 4 years at the Weather Channel because you had the time to teach weather things instead of just getting to the point.  So apologies for those that don't care for the color commentary, but the following is a great explainer for our weather through Monday.  To paraphrase that great literary work, you could call this, "The Tale of Two Forecasts".

There are two very different events ahead in short order. ACA is under a Winter Weather Advisory (click HERE) until 12 noon Sunday.  It's calling for a mixed bag of precipitation that may start as snow, mix in sleet, then maybe some freezing rain, before going to all rain later on Sunday.  The Winter Storm Warnings are a little south and lot E/NE of Haywood County, all thanks to a CAD situation that simply won't reach as far west as us.

CAD event diagram

When high pressure is perfectly placed around PA/NY or the Great Lakes region, the clockwise flow sends down cold Canadian air.  Cold air, being heavier than warm air, pushes SW along the ground, like cold Karo syrup. The lower the elevation the better, though some of the cold air will make it up into the central and northern NC mountains.  In this situation, there simply won't be enough energy to get the cold air to fully entrench in Haywood County, hence our mixed bag of precipitation for this first part.  And IF we got some decent accumulation, all we have to do is wait Nature out and let the rain wash it away. Slick roads overnight and early Sunday morning? A good possibility, so heads up if you must travel.

NW flow event diagram

Ah, but the second part is much more problematic for Haywood County.  It will be a NW flow event, which is what the vast majority of our snows are, especially this winter.  This particular storm is an expansive low pressure that has brought snow to much of the country already, and as it slowly churns to the mid/north Atlantic coastline, the counter-clockwise spin will usher in much colder NW winds and moisture.  That moisture, once it lifts into the mountains from TN (orographic uplift) will turn into bands of snow showers that, given the perfect trajectory down the I-40 corridor, can accumulate quickly.  Current advisories and warnings are only for the first part; undoubtedly there will a new set published Sunday, and I am on the mountain for all of this.  I expect a Winter Storm Warning for ACA for late Sunday night through Monday, for 2-4" of snow for the upper half of ACA.

So, I'm not too concerned about this first part for us, since it will eventually improve on it's own.  Stay tuned, though, for another update/post Sunday.

Bob