Saturday, February 6, 2021

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ACA

Mauney Cove and Lake J (click to enlarge)

TREE CREW UPDATE:  Before I get into our incoming wintry mess, I want to pass along some info from the tree crew.  They are presently working their way down Apple Creek Road to the entrance (but not today, Saturday).  Once they finish with the main road, they are going to go back to the top and start working the side roads all the way down. They'll be up here for some time to come, in one place or another.  Just a heads up for that.

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Well, just what most of us don't want, yet another snow system to stymie travel, mail delivery, etc. This one is a southern system that typically brings more snow than our NW flow stuff and should give us the most snow thus far.  The good news is that the core of the polar air first slated to get here won't be getting here at all.  The bad news is that being on the edge of the arctic air, we get the cold temps and a low pressure coming out of the Gulf of Mexico that will ride along that arctic boundary, which ushers in more moisture, hence more accumulations.

The good news is that the 6-12" totals now are forecast to be half-that, in the 3-6" range.  The bad news is that's because the higher snow totals, which some will see early on, will be compacted by sleet and freezing rain. Yucky-doodle in every respect. My work today was canceled so I won't be giving a report or dealing with driving up the mountain at midnight tonight. Time to prepare and hunker down.

ACA is under a Winter Storm Warning from 6pm Saturday through 12 noon on Sunday. With no demarcation really between higher and lower elevations, the Warning is a broad-brush stroke of 3-6" with locally higher amounts of heavy snow, then tempered with some sleet and possibly freezing rain as the warm nose moves in from the SW early Sunday. My somewhat favored GFS model has ACA solidly in a 5-8" band, and the earlier hot-n-heavy NAM has scaled back to 4-6". Naturally, the higher up you are, the more accumulation you should get.  I'm looking for 5-7" here at the end of Staymon.

I suppose some other good news is that bitterly cold temps will not come in afterwards.  Chilly, yes, brutally cold, no.  Sunshine should pop out Sunday afternoon and highs for a lot of us should go above 32 degrees. After refreeze, Monday's temps should get into the 40s if you're in the sunshine.

Plowing and salting will be done once the precipitation ends, and I'll pass that along once I hear from the board. Make the most of your daylight hours in preparing for our umpteenth winter wonderland. I think you might even find a football game or something to watch on TV...


Bob

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