All good ponies have to go back to the barn at some point...we've trail-ridden some spoiling weather of late, and it's coming to a crashing halt. While Sunday will be a much cooler day, the big changes start coming in Sunday night into a Monday morning well below freezing...and we may well not see 40 degrees until Thursday. Add to that some strong winds that will blow at or above 20 mph most of the time between Sunday evening and Tuesday night, and you've got some very uncomfortable conditions, not withstanding the chance for trees to come down and power outages. Just a friendly heads up for that...
Now, that ol' "S" word. There is no doubt the West Virginia Highlands will bring home the bacon with a forecast in the 2' to 4' range (yep, FEET)...possibly more in places with just the right exposure and orientation. Just how far down the Appalachian spine does the snow fall is the big question. The whole event will be an upslope flow from the NW out of TN, and with stiff winds any accumulations get knocked around. Ah, but what about here around ACA? Boone's chances for accumulating snow are much higher as they are closer to the action...but "Sandy" is an expansive tropical system, and the precipitation will wheel around at great distances.
Every year I repeat the following info, for those new to here or this blog:
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To save you from going back to old blog entries, and for the newer readers, I wanted to pass along how I keep abreast of potential winter weather. I've been a broadcast meteorologist for over 20 years, and still fill in at my former station in Charlotte on a regular basis. To listen to WLOS or the radio or read a generic website will often give very incomplete, non-specific information, if not misleading and/or incorrect. When I post here, it is specific to Apple Creek Acres, our general N/NE exposure, and attention to our elevations which start at ~2880' at the entrance to ~3900' at the top.
The Moskos family lives in what most of us refer to as the 'blue roof' house, and that's important because they are pretty much at 3500'....ask anyone here, a LOT often happens at that elevation per winter weather problems. You'll see me talk of issues above or below that location often. I rely a lot on a particular pair of forecast models that have 'runs' x4 per day...both have biases, so it is interesting to watch as to which best handles the event. There is the NAM (North American Mesoscale) and the GFS (Global Forecast System). I get and post here some of those graphics as they relate to a developing situation.
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At this time, and I've been watching the runs since Friday when I was at work, and it will be interesting to see which one 'wins' or is more accurate. The GFS has only a dusting for ACA, 1" or less...while the NAM on the low side has had us 2"-4", and one run 4" to 6". Clearly the two are far, far apart in how to handle this system.
The trickier part is that this is not our normal snow scenario...an upslope flow is normal, but not to this length and with this much wind. Even if the NAM were to be correct and we got a decent accumulation, you can't consider plowing, etc. until it's all done, which will be a drawn out process. The precipitation may be mixed with rain early on Sunday evening, so just be prepared for travel/road issues, which I hope we don't have to put up with just yet.
Looking at the latest forecast path for "Sandy's" circulation, I want to hedge with the GFS. I think snow will fly, but I don't anticipate driving issues for us. Currently the path is to come ashore along the southern Jersey Shore late Monday night, head inland and then north to the eastern Great Lakes and into Canada...earlier models had that low heading to Ohio and slowing down, which would send more precip this way...and maybe what the NAM was seeing.
As always, I'll post updates as the time approaches...otherwise, you'd better believe I'm doing all the sanding and carport work I can today and tomorrow!
Bob
