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| Dawn this morning, 1-13-14 |
Bob
Monday, January 13, 2014
THIS WEEK'S WEATHER
Bob
Tuesday, January 7, 2014
QUICK WEATHER UPDATE
This is mainly for those residents reading from afar, not in Apple Creek, just to update you on a very unusual weather event. At the end of Staymon Road I know it reached -9 degrees this morning, a temperature that probably hasn't occurred here in a few decades. Luckily, the snow the day before was once again minimal, and while there are some snow/ice areas on our roads, they apparently are no issue to AWD or 4WD vehicles driving under control. The worst result of all this on the mountains has been anything from frozen well heads to broken water pipes. Thankfully, warmer temps are coming in in 24 hours.
Bob
Bob
Monday, January 6, 2014
CONDITIONS, UPDATES
(6:45am update) At 5am it was 29 on Staymon with a good dusting of snow. Radars are now showing snow bands coming right down the I-40 corridor which will provide some more snow for ACA potentially. The temps will crash as the day wears on, but for those that have to get out and travel this is a do-able situation. I have some residents that will be reporting what they experienced on our roads later, so check back and refresh the page to pick up those reports.
Bob
Bob
Sunday, January 5, 2014
MORE SNOW, BITTER COLD
Yet another Winter Storm Warning for ACA, this time from midnight tonight through 6pm Monday. Like the system we just had, the most affected areas will be closer to the TN border, and on the upslope side (east TN will get a good bit).
Amounts: the warning is for 1-3" of snow with isolated 5" on the peaks and ridgetops; however, my two models have ACA in just the 1" range the past two runs, though 24 hours ago they had us in a 2-3" range. I expect to see the same type of situation for our roads that we just had.
Timing: transition to snow will be around or soon after midnight, with the 5a to 7a window showing possibly steadier snow before going to snow showers through the day. Should be a done deal by early Monday night. (5p update shows the possibly steadier snow from 6a to 8a, but overall I see no other changes to the going forecast here).
Winds: winds will become increasingly gusty up to 45mph Monday, tapering off overnight.
Temps: temps will be falling Monday, with teens by the afternoon and single digits by supper time. Wind chill values will easily be in the -15 to -35 degree range at night, and Maggie Valley's forecast low is -9 degrees Tuesday morning. This polar blast will be shattering records in many states, including here. We probably won't see 32 degrees until Wednesday afternoon.
Keith sent the note below to pass along to ACA residents. Whatever falls Monday will be a repeat situation for us (unless it were heavy enough snow to plow) with even colder temperatures. Even with the untreated roads I personally had no issues in AWD going down or up.
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Bob
Amounts: the warning is for 1-3" of snow with isolated 5" on the peaks and ridgetops; however, my two models have ACA in just the 1" range the past two runs, though 24 hours ago they had us in a 2-3" range. I expect to see the same type of situation for our roads that we just had.
Timing: transition to snow will be around or soon after midnight, with the 5a to 7a window showing possibly steadier snow before going to snow showers through the day. Should be a done deal by early Monday night. (5p update shows the possibly steadier snow from 6a to 8a, but overall I see no other changes to the going forecast here).
Winds: winds will become increasingly gusty up to 45mph Monday, tapering off overnight.
Temps: temps will be falling Monday, with teens by the afternoon and single digits by supper time. Wind chill values will easily be in the -15 to -35 degree range at night, and Maggie Valley's forecast low is -9 degrees Tuesday morning. This polar blast will be shattering records in many states, including here. We probably won't see 32 degrees until Wednesday afternoon.
Keith sent the note below to pass along to ACA residents. Whatever falls Monday will be a repeat situation for us (unless it were heavy enough snow to plow) with even colder temperatures. Even with the untreated roads I personally had no issues in AWD going down or up.
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(From Keith Patton, President)
The question has been raised as to why the Board ACAHA took no action on the road from our last snow.
1. There was less than 1/2 inch of snow on the road. Plowing would have done no good.
2. Road salt does not work below 25 degrees. My thermometer topped out at 17.
Those of us who choose to live here on the North side of the mountain year around, have to understand that there will be Winter days when we will not be able to travel. Yesterday morning was one of those times. Any money that the Board of ACAHA would have spent attempting to improve yesterdays situation would have been wasted.
Thanks,
Keith
-----------------------------------------------Bob
Friday, January 3, 2014
TRAVEL/SNOW INFO
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| 1-3-13 7:45am (click to enlarge) |
The wind howled much of the night, but by golly those two models I like were spot on keeping our ACA totals on the low side. I have about 1/2" on the deck, and a balmy low of 5 degrees. I'll be posting any information on roads/conditions/salting/etc. on this page, so please check back and remember to refresh the page when you do check it later (not all computers are set up to auto-refresh page hits).
11:10am...here is a LINK to snow reports made to the NWS
2:30pm...just ran into town and back. Apple Creek Road is snow covered in the shade, as expected. Use a lot of caution going down and keep it slow...several tracks of tell-tale slip-n-slides.
Thursday, January 2, 2014
WEATHER UPDATE
You can read the prior post from yesterday for the basics of our incoming weather, poised to mess up our ACA roads as early as this evening. This is just an update of tidbits from the latest data runs, and adjustments by the National Weather Service (NWS):
Above 3500', the warning is now for 4-6" of snow. Below 3500', the advisory has been upped on the high side for 1-3" of snow. My two favored outputs have been agreeing all along (not the usual) and have ACA on the low side of totals, but have increased to 2" with 3" very close. Winds will make it difficult to ascertain true totals, making it a bit of a moot point - travel should be greatly hampered at the very least starting this evening.
Timing: switchover to snow with crashing cold temps and winds is the late afternoon to around supper time. I would urge anyone out on the roads to be back home as soon after dark as possible this evening, if not earlier...and while we have a good number with jobs that need to travel, I'm expecting some real problems on ACA roads Friday morning.
Winds should be strong and gusty for many hours this evening and overnight...power outages become a possibility, and with the bitterness of the cold coming in, if we did lose power and it stays off long enough, there could be issues of pipes freezing. I imagine most of us are always prepared for this type of situation, so just throwing it out there. :-)
After a bitter Friday, and a short-lived warm-up of sorts, there will be a chance for freezing rain in ACA before sunrise Sunday. Should switch to all rain later in the morning, but a 'heads up' for now. And then Sunday night into Monday will be more snow showers, but the moisture supply looks very limited and probably not an issue. More on that later this weekend.
Bob
Above 3500', the warning is now for 4-6" of snow. Below 3500', the advisory has been upped on the high side for 1-3" of snow. My two favored outputs have been agreeing all along (not the usual) and have ACA on the low side of totals, but have increased to 2" with 3" very close. Winds will make it difficult to ascertain true totals, making it a bit of a moot point - travel should be greatly hampered at the very least starting this evening.
Timing: switchover to snow with crashing cold temps and winds is the late afternoon to around supper time. I would urge anyone out on the roads to be back home as soon after dark as possible this evening, if not earlier...and while we have a good number with jobs that need to travel, I'm expecting some real problems on ACA roads Friday morning.
Winds should be strong and gusty for many hours this evening and overnight...power outages become a possibility, and with the bitterness of the cold coming in, if we did lose power and it stays off long enough, there could be issues of pipes freezing. I imagine most of us are always prepared for this type of situation, so just throwing it out there. :-)
After a bitter Friday, and a short-lived warm-up of sorts, there will be a chance for freezing rain in ACA before sunrise Sunday. Should switch to all rain later in the morning, but a 'heads up' for now. And then Sunday night into Monday will be more snow showers, but the moisture supply looks very limited and probably not an issue. More on that later this weekend.
Bob
Wednesday, January 1, 2014
HAPPY NEW YEAR and MORE...
First, Happy New Year to all y'all in the ACA family! While there is a Winter Storm Warning to share with you, I wanted to pass along the official numbers from the National Weather Service for what was the wettest year on record (since March of 1869!!!) at the region's official NWS gauge at the Asheville airport:
75.22" 2013
45.57" annual average
29.65" above normal (!)
And now back to our yet young winter, with some of the coldest air of the season inbound Thursday night. 4pm update: ACA is now in a Winter Storm Warning above 3500' (blue roof house) and a Winter Weather Advisory below 3500'. These are in effect from 4pm Thursday through 7am Friday. Going forecast is for 3-5" in the warning areas, and 1-2" in the advisory areas. My two favored models continue to put ACA only in the 1" category with 2" close by to the north, but the NWS continues to use wording mentioning possibly heavy snow, so best to prepare. The Smokies, Max Patch, and points north, etc., do stand to get a nice tally.
Even tonight there may be passing hits of wintry precipitation, with everything from sleet to freezing rain to a little snow...with the changeover to all snow by late Thursday afternoon when the cold comes crashing in. But not just cold, mind you, but lots of gusty winds in the 25-35mph range which will make the temps all that more stinging.
Any snow that does fall and accumulate should be tailing off well before sunrise Friday, with best accumulating potential from supper Thursday through midnight. It's just Wednesday morning as I type, so will update either later tonight or first thing Thursday morning with any changes in the forecast as some of us have to get off the mountain and get to work...or make alternate plans. :-)
Bob
75.22" 2013
45.57" annual average
29.65" above normal (!)
And now back to our yet young winter, with some of the coldest air of the season inbound Thursday night. 4pm update: ACA is now in a Winter Storm Warning above 3500' (blue roof house) and a Winter Weather Advisory below 3500'. These are in effect from 4pm Thursday through 7am Friday. Going forecast is for 3-5" in the warning areas, and 1-2" in the advisory areas. My two favored models continue to put ACA only in the 1" category with 2" close by to the north, but the NWS continues to use wording mentioning possibly heavy snow, so best to prepare. The Smokies, Max Patch, and points north, etc., do stand to get a nice tally.
Even tonight there may be passing hits of wintry precipitation, with everything from sleet to freezing rain to a little snow...with the changeover to all snow by late Thursday afternoon when the cold comes crashing in. But not just cold, mind you, but lots of gusty winds in the 25-35mph range which will make the temps all that more stinging.
Any snow that does fall and accumulate should be tailing off well before sunrise Friday, with best accumulating potential from supper Thursday through midnight. It's just Wednesday morning as I type, so will update either later tonight or first thing Thursday morning with any changes in the forecast as some of us have to get off the mountain and get to work...or make alternate plans. :-)
Bob
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